The EU, Khazakhstan, and Azerbaijan All Show How Moscow’s Power Is Slipping Away Because the Russian Army Is Getting Thrashed by Ukraine – Opinion

“When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse.”
–Osama bin Laden, philosopher, terrorist a**hole, and fish food.

The fifth week has now elapsed in a conflict that many Western specialists and the Russians expected would end within two or three days. The war has caused more than 3.6 million Ukrainians to flee their country, despite the risible claims that Russia is not targeting civilian targets, thousands of civilians have been killed, and major cities flattened (As Russian Forces Flatten Civilian Targets and Kill Noncombatants in Ukraine, Putin Snivels About the West’s ‘Economic Warfare’). We can safely assume that Ukraine has experienced around 10,000 casualties to this point. According to NATO figures, Russia has also suffered roughly 30,000 deaths and injuries (see Russia Acknowledges 5201 Dead and Wounded in Ukraine; the Numbers ask More Questions than They Answer). While the war was not a show of power and superiority, it has shown the weakness in Russian military capabilities and their industrial base. The world also sees images like this one.

“C’est pire qu’un crime, c’est une faute” (“It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder.)
–Charles Maurice de Talleyrand

The loss of Moscow’s influence is as important as property and casualties. Yesterday I posted on a former commander of the Polish Army suggesting that the Russian-occupied Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad is actually Polish; see Former Head of Poland’s Armed Forces Follows Putin’s Example and Says Part of Russia Belongs to Poland. The chances that the Polish government will pursue this action are slim because they should only be doing it for the pleasure of trolling Putin. Yet, it is hard to believe that this happened six months ago.

More significant than a Polish general talking on a television program, other events show power is slipping from Putin’s grasp.

Putin demands rubles to get his gas; his customers make fun of him

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would require “unfriendly countries” (basically all of the West) to pay their energy bills in rubles.

Putin’s message was clear: If you want our gas, buy our currency. Uncertain if Russia can unilaterally alter existing agreements in euros was the question.

Following the shocking announcement, the rouble briefly jumped to an all-time high of 95 against USD for three weeks. The rouble lost some of its gains, but it closed at 97.7 against USD, an increase of more than 22% from Feb. 24, although the dollar was up by over 100 points.

While the ruble once was a currency, it now serves as low quality toilet paper. The idea behind this scam was to raise the ruble’s exchange rate. Here’s how the Russian bot account explains Vlad Five Dimensional Chess Grandmaster Vlad’s checkmate.

Except it didn’t work out that way.

Several leaders from European Union members have scoffed at Russia’s demand that some “unfriendly” countries will be forced to pay for its natural gas and oil in rubles, saying the move is a breach of contract.

In a move seen aimed at bolstering Russia’s beleaguered currency in the face of crippling economic and financial penalties over its invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will no longer accept payments in dollars or euros, what he called “compromised currencies” from countries that have imposed the sanctions.

While Putin did no name countries, it’s understood that his policy would have an impact on the United States of America, Canada, Japan and the European Union members.

“This would be a unilateral decision and a clear breach of contract, and it would be an attempt to circumvent the sanctions,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the start of an EU summit in Brussels on March 24.

Putin is faced with the dilemma of whether to accept euros, or not. He really doesn’t have the option of shutting off energy because he needs the money. This has also had the effect of finding new customers for the Baltic Sea pipeline linking Norway and Poland. It is expected to be online in October. Poland also stated that the pipeline would become fully operational when it goes online.

Kazakhstan, among other places, ignores the invasion of Ukraine

Russia attempted to establish security (Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO), that is a sort of a low-key Warsaw Pact with a lot more enthusiasm) as well as economic institutions (Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU]) in parallel to NATO and the EU. Russia is able to control the countries in question, which are both minor and weak military and economic power. Kazakhstan is the largest member.

The public discourse about Ukraine by the Kazakhstani political leadership is predictable. It’s worth noting that none of the Central Asian nations supported the General Assembly resolution regarding Ukraine, and placed sanctions on Russia. President Tokayev shared his view only at the beginning of March when he called on “both states to find a common language at the negotiating table” and offered Kazakhstan as a mediation platform. Later, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mukhtar Tleuberdi was more explicit when mentioned that the country does not consider recognizing the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as independent states.

The independence of Donetsk and Luhansk (spelling varies, as I’ve used Luhansk in the past, I’ll continue to ignore Lugansk like I ignore Kyiv) are key Russian war aims. Russia recognized Ukraine’s independence unilaterally on February 21, see Vladimir Putin orders Russian peacekeeping troops into Eastern Ukraine. This is hard to believe, given the events that took place before Ukraine invaded. However, Russia has a reduced hold over the client countries, despite being battered with sanctions and showing its army to be invincible.

Azerbaijan overruns Russian peacekeepers

Azerbaijan and Armenia were at war for the Nagorno Karabakh disputed territory between September 27th, 2020 and November 10th, 2020. The Armenians, who are members of Russia’s cute little economic and political blocs, were thoroughly thrashed. Even though the war is over, a lot of skirmishing and limited objective attacks take place, and the Russians have inserted themselves into the mix as “peacekeepers.”

As the grinding war in Ukraine enters its second month, tensions flared in another former Soviet region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war in 2020, as Azerbaijani troops moved into territory patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, Moscow said in a statement on Saturday.

Russia raised concerns, and Azerbaijan responded with a dismissive tone.

In fact, this heating up of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict takes place just as Russia is withdrawing troops from Armenia to take part in “Phase II” of the fight in Ukraine (Russia’s General Staff Claims Invasion Objectives ‘Mainly Accomplished’ and Phase II of Ukraine Invasion Is Starting),

Azerbaijan has been negotiating trade and defense agreements with Russia’s enemies.

Russia created an international crisis by its actions in Ukraine. Russia has shown no signs of weakness in economic, military, or political terms over the past month. Russia is abandoning its war goals and her political allies have been exposed to outside attack, no matter how ridiculous the CSTO declarations. Like the Ottoman Empire, Russia has become the new “sick man of Europe” that can precipitate wars but is unable to bring its own house into order.

 

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