A bomb exploded in Baku, Azerbaijani time on Sunday morning. While there are no details on the number of victims, it is clear that Vladimir Putin could have been in worse circumstances.
A huge bomb explosion took place outside the Baku Nightclub in Azerbaijan. Dozens dead. Reports suggest a car bomb, however no confirmation has been made. pic.twitter.com/mRGbPN7I80
— OSINT Insider (@OSINT_Insider) April 3, 2022
Azerbaijani and Armenian former Soviet Republics waged a 44-day civil war for a land dispute with Nagorno Karabakh, the Tolkienesqe designation. Russian clients call Armenians. Azerbaijan has ties with Israel and is a member of the NATO farm club, the “Partnership for Peace” program. In the war, Armenia was soundly thumped, and Russia, attempting to show its relevance, acted as the intermediary for the cease-fire and has employed “peacekeepers” in the region.
Russia has had to pull troops from “peacekeeping” duties in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh because they are needed in Ukraine. The transfer of “peacekeepers” allowed Azerbaijan to encroach on the cease-fire line (see The EU, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan All Show How Moscow’s Power Is Slipping Away Because the Russian Army Is Getting Thrashed by Ukraine),
Azerbaijan is also developing closer ties to Israel. Iran shares a border area with Azerbaijan, which is populated by Azerbaijanis. Iran has threatened Baku repeatedly over their relationship with Israel.
Although the investigation into the bombing continues, there are still three branches to this decision tree.
Many people are upset about the result of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Both sides accuse the other side of genocide. The explosion being an Armenian retaliation for Azerbaijani’s aggressiveness on the cease-fire line is possible. As Russia, which is already preoccupied and has proven itself to be a paper-tiger, would make it possible for a new war.
Iranians have a tendency to commit acts of terror when they’re annoyed about something. They made numerous threats about the presence of Israelis that are so near to Iran’s Islamist pure air, but were ignored. Any country that can bomb a synagogue in Argentina for sh**s and grins can bomb a nightclub where alcohol is consumed and men and women, possibly Israelis, mingle. I don’t know enough about Iran-Azerbaijan relations to guess what that would mean, much less provide informed speculation.
It could have been an accident. The General Director of AzeriGas has released a statement saying it was a “propane gas cylinder” explosion. Although it is intended to make one believe that the explosion was accidental, there are no specific words in this statement. A “propane gas cylinder” could be an explosion, or it could be part of something larger, or it could simply be false.
The important thing here is the way the Azerbaijani government treats the blast. They can create an investigation that gives them the basis to make another attack on Armenia. If they want this to be an accident, they’ve already set the stage for that decision, too.