This is arguably the most painful headline I’ve ever written, but it was a headline that needed to be written.
Nancy Pelosi is rarely given credit, but she was determined and bound to fly to Taiwan despite threats from China. The recognition of Taiwan’s independence is always the right thing, and Pelosi’s decision to fly there is an affirmation of the United States’ recognition of such.
This morning it was announced that Pelosi will be flying to Taipei (the capital of the island nation), and the Chinese military responded immediately. The Chinese military responded immediately to the confirmation. now-removed tweetAccording to Chinese media, Pelosi was threatened by the Chinese government if she flew to Taiwan last week.
If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion. The PLA has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. Shoot them down if they are ineffective. https://t.co/V7LhrXgXoM
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) July 29, 2022
Naturally and after the very poor response from White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to the question, the Biden administration has now been forced to support Pelosi who is part of their party and is the leader of the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives.
There is no need for Chinese rhetoric. There’s no reason for any actions to be taken … It is very much in keeping with our policy.”
— NSC’s John Kirby on Pelosi’s trip to Asia, where she’s expected to visit Taiwan (Chinese officials said China will “not sit idly by”) pic.twitter.com/r8Lly4kNtH
— The Recount (@therecount) August 1, 2022
It should also be mentioned that both the White House (and the Pentagon) have tried to cancel this trip for several weeks. Pelosi, however, would not be swayed and that’s frankly a good thing.
China and Taiwan have long had issues, but it’s China’s hard push for territorial expansion into the sea and influential expansion around the globe that is making this issue into a potentially catastrophic war in the region. Axios last week reported that China could be shifting its timeline for invading Taiwan by several years due to its declining economic position.
Here’s the big picture The Chinese government repeatedly has vowed that it will take over the autonomous island by force, and reacts furiously to any act which might treat Taiwan like an independent nation.
Current state: U.S. and Taiwanese officials have in the past floated various timelines for an invasion, often setting the horizon at 2025 or 2030.
- But U.S. officials now believe China may make a strong move against Taiwan within the next 18 months, according to a recent New York Times report, though that estimate is not based on specific knowledge of Beijing’s plans.
- A Taiwanese official told Axios that the U.S. should take Taiwan’s signals as an invitation to increase military cooperation and joint training. “Whether it’s 18 months or seven years from now, we need to start this process now,” the official said, “before it’s too late.”
As an aside, it’s probably no small coincidence that the Chinese may be moving their plans up to an invasion while Biden is still in office. They watched his (and the world’s) reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a lot of interest, and probably have concluded that Biden’s first term is probably the time because he’s not guaranteed a second one.
But, the larger point here is that despite the hostility and the threats, Nancy Pelosi isn’t backing down here. Nancy Pelosi is challenging one of the most powerful bullies in the world and almost daring them not to do something.
It’s also not something new for Pelosi to (literally) fly in the face of the Chinese Community Party. Jim Geraghty makes this point at National ReviewThis morning:
Pelosi sees herself as “a progressive hawk” on China; in recent days, people dug into the archives and found footage of her trip to China in 1991Two years later, the Chinese government crushed protesters and students in Beijing. Pelosi and other members of Congress visited Tiananmen Square and displayed a banner honoring the demonstrators — until Beijing police showed up, hassling them and the media traveling with them. Back in the day, Pelosi opposed giving China most-favored-nation trade status, calling it “a nation that proliferates weapons of mass destruction, maintains trade barriers that bar U.S. products from its market, and continues to arrest, detain, exile or harass those who peacefully express their political or religious beliefs in China and Tibet.”
It is a difficult decision for some conservatives, but it is worth applauding Speaker on this trip. She’s beginning an Asia trip while August recess is in full swing. StartTaiwan. This is a recognition of Taiwan’s independence and a continuation of American policy on the subject. That the Biden administration is so nervous about it – to the point that they tried to tell her not to go – is telling, but at least Pelosi had the guts to follow through with her plan.
That deserves praise. She deserves our support.