Poland Ambassador Marek Magierowski sat down with CNN’s Jake Tapper on this Sunday’s edition of “State of the Union” to continue to push his country’s proposal for NATO to consider becoming involved in peacekeeping in Ukraine, at this week’s alliance summit. Tapper started the interview with this opening question:
“Your prime minister says he intends to propose a peacekeeping mission, a NATO peacekeeping mission, in Ukraine at this week’s summit. How would it look? What would be part — who would be part of that force? How would they work in Ukraine?”
A measured answer
“It is, understandably, preliminary concept which has been put on the table, a proposal which has to be considered by our NATO allies.
It will, however, be difficult in international law terms, as you can probably see. We must look at every possible option to stop aggression and unprovoked conflict as fast as we can, but without having to engage Russia directly in war, which is not my intent.
But I think we should talk about all possibilities in order also to send a very clear signal to the Kremlin that NATO is determined to not only help the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian army, the aggressor on their soil, but also to defend our territorial integrity, our sovereignty and our freedoms.”
The proposal was made by Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, following a visit he made to Ukraine along with the Prime Ministers of the Czech Republic and Slovenia to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Magierowski spoke out about the visit.
“It was a very symbolic journey, obviously. His intention was to convey solidarity and support for the Ukrainian people, and President Zelenskyy in particular. And, also, he stressed very clearly that — talking about Ukraine’s future, that the European Union should grant the so-called fast-track option to Ukraine, in terms of Ukraine’s joining the European Union, Ukraine’s accession to European institutions, which has always been one of the most important and crucial aspirations of the Ukrainian people.”
See the CNN video clip here, https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/03/20/magierowski-on-nato-peacekeeping.cnn
As Tapper continued to press Magierowski about the peacekeeping proposal, the ambassador reiterated that this is a very “preliminary” concept. The Ambassador’s clarifications included,
“… we are not talking about a possible escalation and possible engagement of NATO troops in Ukraine. It would be far too escalated, according to most Western and Polish politicians.
No. No, I’m not talking about Polish troops in Ukraine.
We can’t take any decisions unilaterally even as a NATO member state.”
Is this really happening?
US officials expressed reservations about the Polish proposal. This piece by First News, US skeptical about Poland’s proposal for Nato ‘peace mission’, quotes a State Department spokesperson worrying that any entry of US or NATO forces into Ukraine, even purely as peacekeepers, would be escalatory.
However, I do see the Poles looking towards the future after the war. Regardless of the rhetorical war between the sides and the propaganda war, on the ground Russia is gradually but surely reducing the Ukrainian military. The pattern of their territory-taking concentrates on taking key areas in eastern Ukraine, while so far avoiding the wheat fields of Ukraine’s breadbasket agricultural center. In an ode back to centuries’ old practices in siege warfare of pausing hostilities to till the fields, the Russians probably do not want to disrupt the spring planting season. They have also, so far, mostly harassed western Ukraine, sending messages that they do not like the West continuing to supply the Zelenskyy government’s ability to prolong the conflict. This assessment is not influenced by the internet, but it’s the one most analysts who have been following the conflict closely agree with.
The conflict, according to Chinese words, will end in a settlement which makes Ukraine neutral and not associated with Russia or NATO. Both economically and politically, Ukraine will be split between a part that is European Union-leaning and one that is Russian Federation-leaning. There will be a line of animus between these two zones, and there will have to be some sort of third party to keep the two sides from turning the frontier between two spheres of influence into a permanently dangerous, no-man’s land. It’s the 21It is possible toThe new Berlin Wall will be reconstructed in the century. All war hawks on Earth, Russian or Western, will love this miniature-golf version of Cold War.
Hard feelings on the international scene will lead to continued isolation of Russia and the US/EU economies. Sanctions will be replaced by new models for how the global economy operates. A line of thought suggests that US-led US sanctions makes it much easier for Russian President Vladimir Putin (and others) to nationalize Russian businesses to establish a tightly managed, centrally planned economy. But, that will not be the case for a while. China is the first to win this game, trading with each of the economic blocks. Things will improve over the long term and the US/EU bloc can reestablish economic relations with Russia. Hopefully, by then most of those lightning rod personalities who are creating the bitter feelings of war in 2022 will have passed away.
Ambassador Magierowski said it like this:
“I believe that the upcoming NATO summit in Brussels next week will be a great opportunity to talk about all these possibilities and options and proposals which are now on the table how to deter Russia, also in a longer term.”
NATO’s challenge will now be faced with the problem of where to draw the line in the global spheres after the end of the Ukraine war.
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