Helicopters attacked and set fire to a large fuel depot in Belgorod on Friday morning. Russia is not pleased.
Two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters strike the Belgorod oil storage facility with rockets. https://t.co/4Lt5l1Xc3S pic.twitter.com/d5zj4GWjou
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 1, 2022
Insane. Two Ukrainian helicopters fired S-8 rockets at Belgorod, causing the flames to spread. https://t.co/kx5wDfJ88C pic.twitter.com/HhHkirNJWk
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 1, 2022
There is a lot of stuff going on here that gives a “house of mirrors” effect.
How did it all end?
Russia says it did; Ukraine says it didn’t. In fact, Ukraine is going full metal Alex Jones here, claiming a “false flag” attack.
#BREAKING
My colleague is told by the Ukrainian General Staff @fpiatov, it does “not have this information” that Ukrainian forces attacked an oil depot in Belgorod oblast, hinting that the attack could have been a Russian false flag operation to justify further brutal attacks on 🇺🇦.— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) April 1, 2022
It is absurd, but there are some threads of plausibility. Russia and Ukraine are currently engaged in talks. The attack by Ukraine on Russian targets could be seen rightly as an act of provocation, at a moment when de-escalation may be justified. Russia may perceive an attack at night with little visibility that could be embarrassing the Ukrainian government, and could gain some advantages. The counterpoint to that is that Russia didn’t spend that much ingenuity making up reasons for its invasion of Ukraine.
There’s really no need for a Belgorode style of a false flag this late into the war. Interpreted as a signal by Ukraine it’s a powerful one, demonstrating readiness to strike strategic targets inside Russia. https://t.co/mrXEnCBeSP
— Veli-Pekka Kivimäki (@vpkivimaki) April 1, 2022
Four days ago, a Russian ammunition depot exploded in a similar accident. Both a Ukrainian missile attack and the excellent safety record of Russia’s Army were responsible for the explosion.
The precision strike was carried out by Ukraine using the Tochka U missile against an ammunition storage in Oktyabrskoe (near Belgorod), Russia. Russia supplies its artillery attacking Ukraine with rockets and missiles stored at the facility,” Yury Butusov Ukrainian journalist https://t.co/n3sI0QSOgK
— Paul (@PaulPowloo) March 31, 2022
Both sides use the same helicopters and munitions, which doesn’t make things any easier.
Look at Belgorod on the other side.
A fuel depot located near Belgorod could also be a targeted area that was well-thought out and worth the danger for Ukraine. The map shows that Belgorod, the red indicator, would serve as the primary supply for Kharkiv and the rest of the way to Donbas. pic.twitter.com/wCx0pnwV1Q
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 1, 2022
The target was a fuel depot that would be needed to support this newfound “focus on Donbas” that no one had heard of until last week. So emotions are high. The Russian military destroyed cities in Ukraine without considering civilian casualties. However, there are some positive signs that the Ukrainian Army might have the ability to attack Russian cities.
#Ukraine #map #warThe mapping of the #Russian #invasion – Territorial #controlAs of April 1, 2022 #Russia #Putin #Belgorod (Hi-res version & more #maps: https://t.co/hYtdKvDDjS) pic.twitter.com/VTIQi8kFyK
— Cristian Ionita (@EdmapsCom) April 1, 2022
In my view, I don’t see the Ukrainian Defense Ministry as having ordered this attack. Neither do I believe the “false flag” story. Belgorod’s fuel depot is the ideal target in the right spot at the right time. Falling back on Ockham’s Razor, I think we have to give great credence to the notion that Ukraine did carry out the attack but that it was ordered by a local commander.