The Democrat ‘Comeback’ Is Crashing and Burning – Opinion

If you’ve been following the political chatter for the last month or so, one common theme being pushed by the press and data nerd Twitter is the idea of a Democrat “comeback” before the mid-terms.

Although historically, all headwinds have been against Joe Biden’s party, the truth is that things could change this time. After all, the Democrats passed the “Inflation Reduction Act” that doesn’t actually reduce inflation, and Democrats have taken some leads on the generic ballot since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

But my answer was not the same. The generic ballot has often understated Republican support in environments that don’t favor Democrats (i.e. 2018, not 2018. This day in the 2014 cycle, Democrats held an advantage of 1.4 percent. Final result: Republicans won by 5.7%. In 2016, Democrats held a 5 point lead on the generic ballot. Republicans retained control of Congress with a victory margin of 1.1 percent.

As I’ve written previously, the point is simple: Summer polling is notoriously bad and typically favors Democrats (at least post-2012). It is used to proclaim that Republicans are winning the election without it ever happening.

You can also expect that the GOP will regain ground as September approaches. As those who want to fall often go to the opposition party, this is a sign of how close we are to September. Sure enough, the latest NBC News poll is out, and it’s everything the election bros on Twitter told us wasn’t supposed to be happening.

In this poll, the GOP actually outperformed the other parties on the generic ballot. Dobbs decision came down. That’s completely counter to the media narrative that abortion is going to be the deciding factor in this election. Further, Biden’s job approval remains completely stagnant, with the president actually dropping to 55 percent disapproval while his approval remains at an abysmal 42 percent.

Things don’t get better for the Democrats when you dive into the issue-level polling. Here’s what respondents think of the supposedly game-changing “Inflation Reduction Act.”

The poll comes on the heels a good GOP poll showing Republican senate nominee Adam Laxalt ahead of his Democrat opponent Nevada. It’s also worth noting that the NBC News poll is not an outlier. Two previous generic polls had also given high marks to Republicans, with each one showing a five-point advantage for the GOP.

Lastly, it should be mentioned that we haven’t even seen the major pollsters switch to likely voter screens yet. As Republicans are enthusiastic, as shown by the comparisons of primary turnouts, it is likely that these results will shift further towards the GOP.

In other words, as I’ve been saying to the doomsayers, you do not panic in August. We get closer to Halloween and the more things will change. There are no reasons to believe Democrats will defy history, especially with a president who has an average approval rating of only 40 percent.

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