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Putin’s War. Week 21. New Weapons Change the Battlefield in Ukraine’s Favor but Are They Stronger Than European Cowardice and Stupidity? – Opinion

By Pluralist / July 26, 2022

We’re now halfway through week 21 of Vladimir Putin’s 72-hour Special Military Operation to eliminate Ukraine. For the previous edition, read Putin’s War, Week 19. A Replay of The Western Front, Political Uncertainty and Lots of New Weapons. Let’s take a look and see how things are going.

The Politico-Strategic level

Most of the action took place at the politicalo-strategic level. I don’t feel terribly comfortable commenting on some of the happenings because I don’t want to look like David French trying to write about conservatism. They are all happening. There’s a reason for them. But the meaning might not be very clear.

Goverment Shake-up.Five ambassadors were fired by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president. Although no reason was provided, it seems that they had been too aggressive towards the heads of states of the respective countries they were serving. I would guess that the situation has changed since early in the war to one requiring a smoother approach rather than publicly shaming politicians for not supporting Ukraine’s defense.

Last Sunday, the former head of Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, for operations in Crimea was arrested by the SBU under a warrant charging him with treason. He’d been fired after the rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses in Kherson Oblast. This made him the latest SBU member who defected early in war to Russia or was arrested for giving intelligence information to Russia. This shouldn’t be a shock as the upper crust of the SBU was trained in Moscow at the same school that trained the KGB and now trains the FSB. This seems to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Zelensky sacked SBU chief and childhood friend Ivan Bakanov, one of Bakanov’s senior deputies, along with Prosecutor-General Iryna Venediktova.

Zelensky signed an order stripping 10 prominent Ukrainians of citizenship the day after they resacked their chief SBU officer. It is legal in Ukraine if one or more passports are present. Some were slaves to Russia. But one man was the richest in Ukraine: Ihor Kolomoysky. Kolomoysky was instrumental in backing the Maidan Revolution that booted Russia’s puppet out of Kiev. His media empire provided the launching pad for Zelensky’s entertainment career, and he was thought to have a significant degree of influence over Zelensky and his cabinet ministers. Kolomoysky’s closest friends were also on the list of those deprived of citizenship. According to some stories, Kolomoysky could have defected to Russia. This would have caused immense political damage to Zelensky. Right now, that is in the “cool story, bro” category as no evidence has been presented.

It is not my intention to claim authority over the internal workings of any government. Given Kolomoysky’s history of close ties to Russia, my guess is that his view of how to manage the war and Zelensky’s had diverged to the point where they were incompatible. I imagine Zelensky also wanted to get rid of the charge of being Kolomoysky’s sockpuppet. Zelensky opted to be a full-metal Godfather and fight an actual war instead of waging a political or real war.

Zelensky was also criticized by right-leaning politicians for his decision to ban pro-Russian parties from operating in Ukraine and the media that supports them. This country is currently in the middle of war. We didn’t allow pro-Nazi parties and media to operate in the US during WW II. You can take aim at Zelensky, but it’s a good exercise in self-beclowning.

Boris Johnson quits. Boris Johnson’s resignation as British prime minister is a huge blow to Zelensky as Johnson was his most reliable and generous ally in Europe. UK soldiers are being trained in combat skills or weapon systems training. The British Special Boat Service also provided equipment and training to the Ukrainian soldiers to free Snake Island. The two leading contenders for the prime minister’s job are both supportive of Ukraine, but one, Rishi Sunak, is alleged to have family financial ties to Putin’s regime, and his rhetoric doesn’t give one comfort that he would do much more than cheer from the sidelines.

Expanding Conflict. It is hard to end any kind of war. The same applies to this.

Belarus threatens Poland by deploying its troops on the southeastern border with Ukraine. Although the Belarusian army may be a laughing stock, Russia uses airbases and ammunition depots located in Belarus for strikes against Ukraine. This will only get worse for Ukraine. The situation of Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus Grand Poohbah, is precarious. Don’t be shocked to wake up one morning and find a pro-Ukraine, pro-Poland revolution has sent him into exile…or is parading his head around Minsk on a pike.

Moldova’s hang-fire war with “Transnistria” is back in the news. I’ve written on this forgotten conflict before; see Putin Decides to Widen the War With Ukraine to Achieve His Objectives. Long story short: in 1991, Russia backed an AstroTurfed “separatist” movement in Moldova. Russians established a ceasefire, which included the stationing of a 1,400-man brigade in Transnistria and ammunition storage sites. Last week Moldova announced that the Russians in the “peacekeeping” force would not be allowed to travel through Moldova to rotate home. Their chances of passing through Ukraine is slim. Transnistria has no airports of any importance. Russia seems to be all business, although it’s difficult for us to imagine what they could do if Moldova is not dissolved. Ukraine promises Moldova that it will protect the Russians in conflict. Although the Moldovan army may not be a First World Army, it is far more organized and well-trained than in 1991. It is also exponentially better equipped and capable than any militia Transnistria could pull off.

Russian Grain Blockade. Ukraine is one of the world’s largest wheat producers and the largest source for the Middle East and North Africa. However, the Russian naval superiority and both sides extracting Odesa’s approaches have effectively stopped Ukrainian wheat exports and their seed oils. Famine could result from the blockade in some parts of the world. While work is ongoing to reroute the commerce via Poland, it will take several years to create the transport and storage infrastructure necessary to make this happen. Russia and Ukraine reached a settlement Friday to let Ukrainian wheat be shipped from Odesa. Saturday, Russia hit infrastructure in Odesa’s harbor with a missile attack.

The Russians claimed they were targeting “a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse with Harpoon anti-ship missiles.” What the Russians did, and I think the purpose of the attack, was scuttle the grain export agreement by ensuring that commercial vessels can’t get insurance to carry cargo out of Odesa. So effectively, the grain embargo remains in place, and Russia can claim, and its simps can amplify the claim that it agreed to allow grain out of Ukraine, and they don’t know why Ukraine isn’t shipping it.

EU Fecklessness.Russia discovered that the Ukrainians are a pressure point within the alliance arming and training them. In the last report, I covered Lithuania’s decision to impose EU sanctions on Russian traffic to the stolen enclave of Kaliningrad (Lithuania Enforces EU Sanctions on Kaliningrad and Putin’s Toadies Lose Their Minds). The EU decided that sanctions didn’t cover shipments to Kaliningrad. An exemption was granted and a turbine to be used in the Russian Nord Stream pipe was transported from Canada into Germany.

Operational Level

Like every year, I enjoy reviewing the first 90 days. Otherwise, both gains and losses can take on an unwarranted significance.

This is today’s frontline.

Credit: Institute for the Study of War

Action: New Weapons

The weapon that is getting everyone’s attention is the M-142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

HIMARS is more accurate than any Russian rocket artillery systems. It is more accurate (HIMARS accuracy is ±5 meters; the Russian systems are ±1,000 meters), fires faster (reload in 5 minutes versus nearly an hour), and has almost double the range. All division headquarters, lower headquarters, ammunition dumps (surface-to-air ballistic missile batteries), and repair yards within the warzone are at risk from this weapon system. M-270 MLRS, the HIMARS-tracked relative; Ukraine holds about a quarter of them.

I’m not a believer in wonder weapons, but HIMARS shows the promise, should it be handled aggressively and with intelligence, to bring Russian advances to a complete halt and prepare the battlespace for counteroffensives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrxSbu9lZSE

British L119, 105mm howitzers finally enter service. 36 weapons were handed over by the British Army in June to Ukraine. Crews from the UK have finished their training and now they are stationed in Donbas.

Although the L119 may not be as glamorous as big guns, the 105mm can fire support frontline troops. It also frees up 155mm and HIMARS for hunting Russian artillery and supply dumps.

Ukraine received three first-class German Gepard antiaircraft planes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaPy3t4-i14

Putin’s War has showcased the importance of drones in the Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Target Acquisition mission. The current fight is not equal between both sides. It requires a very expensive missile to down a drone that’s relatively cheap, or even dirt cheap. The Gepard can also fire anti-aircraft munition and an armor-piercing round to hit vehicular targets. The Gepard can be paired with units with greater value and equipped with artillery system to dramatically decrease their vulnerability to anti-battery fire.

Britain’s Stormer High Velocity Missile System has also arrived in the theater. This carrier will carry the StarStreak missile. It has been operational for just a few months. Stormer, like the Gepard will defend high-value assets against Russian drones as well as engage low-flying fixed wings aircraft and helicopters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCcSQA2GXDY

Poland already has supplied Ukraine over 200 obsolete T-72 tanks. Because they are the same armor as Russia’s best, I am using the term obsolescent. Now the Poles are supplying an “undetermined” number of domestically produced PT-91 tanks. These tanks are basically T-72 tanks, but every system has been upgraded to modern standards. They will arrive as some of the most powerful tanks in war, but they won’t be in the same category as either the British Challenger or the US Abrams.

The training of Ukrainian soldiers is ongoing in Britain, and elsewhere. On the road to training 10,000 troops, thousands have already completed basic training. After a solid cadre is trained, the trainees can then expand their training program at home.

There haven’t been a lot of new Russian weapons introduced, but the S-300 anti-aircraft system is now being pressed into service as a surface-to-surface missile.

Operational Level

The past few weeks were largely static. There is however, something significant brewing in southern operations.

Kharkiv

Skirmishing, small-scale operations and skirmishing have been commonplaces on the north front. A few villages may have been sold, but only a handful. But, the frontline has remained mostly unchanged.


Credit: Institute for the Study of War

Donbas

My view is that the Donbas front continues to be the core of the Russian operation. My grand idea of creating a landbridge from Russia to Transnistria through occupying historic boundaries in the Oblasts of Luhansk (Donetsk), Zaporizhzhia Kherson and Mykolaiv is my favorite.


Credit: Geology.com

Both sides are limited in their advances and withdrawals.


Credit: Institute for the Study of War

Russian artillery, however, is less active. Here is an example of the fires that NASA satellites have detected in Donbas. That is widely used as a proxy for artillery bombardment because eastern Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of significant fires detectable by satellite without some human intervention. On the left, you can see Donbas during the Russian offensive of July 6, 2007. The right image is the combined last three data days.


Credit: author

It is now a small fraction of what the level of artillery was in the frontlines. Many artillery strike are landing behind Russian lines. HIMARS strikes account for the majority of these HIMARS attacks. It is due to an increased effectiveness of Ukrainian counterbattery and the loss of ammunition depots in Russian firing batteries.

Kherson

Kherson was the main focus of action in the week.

The Ukrainians made steady progress on the front.

Credit: Institute for the Study of War

This is the same plan that I described here in a couple of weeks. They won’t throw their troops in a Kherson meatgrinder. Their strategy is to maintain pressure at the front and make some opportunistic wins, but force the Russians into surrendering Kherson, starving them for supplies. Three bridges supply Russian troops in Kherson as well as those north of the Dnipro River.

Daryivka Bridge over Ingulets River

Bridge over the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam

This bridge is crucial because it will be used by any reinforcements and supplies coming from Donbas. I’m not sure about the quality of the repairs…

The Antonovsky Bridge.

It is almost a mile in length and the main route connecting Crimea with Ukraine.

Just a few hours back, another HIMARS attack was launched against the bridge.

We’ll see the results tomorrow.

If such equipment exists, it is possible to build tactical bridges that compensate the loss. What can’t be compensated for is the volume of traffic the bridges handle. If these bridges are destroyed, the Russians can’t sustain their force in Kherson and its environs.

Summary.

Operationally both sides are at parity. Each side is not making large gains on territory. My view is that the momentum in Ukraine’s favor at the moment. The battle is being fought with new weapons and crews. These weapons are designed to attack Russian ammunition and fuel stock. Donbas is witness to this strategy’s success. The field is seeing new Ukrainian formations, with superior training than the Russian troops.

Both a military and a diplomatic dimension to war exist. Putin has the advantage here. He’s not managing a flighty coalition fearful of winter without Russian gas. He has the power to do what it takes to prosecute the war, something I don’t think can be said for Ukraine’s allies. While Hungary’s Viktor Orban gets a lot of grief, he’s not the problem. If Germany’s Olaf Scholz were on Putin’s payroll, I’m not sure what he would do differently.

If nothing happens (e.g., a collapse by one of the combatants), this war will remain one of attrition. The winner will be the one that takes the most suffering.

 

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