Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to increase the drama in his Ukraine trip by placing Russian nuclear forces under alert.
Putin used the nuclear alert directive to refer not only to statements made by NATO member countries but also the severe financial sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia against it, which included the Russian leader.
Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin told his defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty.”
“Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country,” Putin said in televised comments.
Here’s my assessment
- It isn’t going as planned for the invasion of Ukraine. It seemed that the Russian campaign plan was based on several flawed assumptions. They believed that Ukrainian armed forces wouldn’t be effective if they didn’t completely melt away. Then they also assumed that Ukrainian pan-Slavism would lead them to join the Russians. On Wednesday, they thought the Ukrainian government would board the first flight out of Ukraine and the whole thing would end in less than 48 hours. All of this was not the case (Putin shows signs of panic as he calls on Ukraine’s military to rebel). In fact, the Ukrainians’ very clever propaganda campaign has succeeded in making President Zelensky into a heroic figure (Ukrainian President Zelensky Tells Russia to Pound Sand — and Hits Joe Biden’s Impotence).
- Putin was taken by surprise yesterday when the second round of sanctions were announced. The sanctions, which will make it difficult for the Russian central banking to access foreign currency and gold funds, are likely to become more severe in the coming weeks. While the sanctions on Putin are not economically null, they will hit him where he is most vulnerable, which would be his ego.
- Putin was taken by surprise when he saw the outpouring pro-Ukraine activities across Europe. This included street protests and a Russian soccer tournament. As this exercise was supposed to showcase Russia’s power, it has backfired spectacularly in making Russia a pariah in Europe.
Here is a list of European countries that have shut down their airspace to Russian flight. Norwegian just made this announcement a few moments ago. pic.twitter.com/PXC79eJgsd
— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) February 27, 2022
Russia has largely ignored the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty requirements, unlike the United States which is known for its strict adherence to treaties. Russia still has battlefield nuclear weapons. Russia’s open source doctrine claims they can continue to use these weapons with impunity, as the US lacks comparable weapons.
I think that we need to all see this order as what it really is. Putin is on the verge of being humiliated, and he’s trying to return what has become a widespread governmental and popular backlash to the Ukraine invasion to a battlespace he controls. The calculus is changing if the conflict continues for another week. This will indicate that the Russian Army in Ukraine may be on the brink of collapse.
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