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Putin Decides to Widen the War With Ukraine to Achieve His Objectives – Opinion

By Pluralist / April 26, 2022

Friday, a senior Russian general stationed in Moscow declared that Russia’s goal in Putin’s War was not just to establish a land bridge from Russia to Crimea by conquering all of the Donbas oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk and adding Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Instead, the objective, he claimed, was to take all of Ukraine’s coastline, seize control of Odesa, and establish road and rail connections with the Russian AstroTurfed state of “Transnistria.”

The comments from Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, seemed to hint that the Kremlin — which has been stymied in its bid to take over the Ukrainian capital — still wants to conquer wide swaths of its neighbor’s land, and potentially threaten the nations that lie beyond. They drew swift condemnation from Moldova, where residents have worried since the beginning of the war they could be next in the Kremlin’s crosshairs.

Minnekayev said capturing Ukraine’s east and south would create a “land corridor” to the Crimean Peninsula — which the Kremlin annexed in 2014 — and give Moscow influence over “vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” according to the Russia state media outlet Tass. It would also provide “another way out to Transnistria,” Minnekayev said, referring to a thin strip of land that runs along Moldova’s border with Ukraine that functions as a separate nation, though it is not recognized as such, even by Russia.

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Mimicking language used to justify Moscow’s initial invasion of Ukraine, Minnekayev indicated he was concerned by the “oppression of the Russian-speaking population” in the Transnistria enclave. The Moldovan government released a statement calling the accusations “unacceptable,” adding that the comment would “lead to increased tensions and mistrust in society.”

Transnistria, what the heck is that? Good question. Are there other genders? Is it an example of a swamp rat that has sexual identity confusion?

Transnistria is a “breakaway” republic the Russians carved out of Moldova in 1992.

Transnistria has about one third Russian-speaking speakers. The decision of the Moldovan government not to use Cyrillic (which was enforced under communism), and to make Moldovan (a Romanian language) the official language led to Russia doing what it did in Ukraine in 2014. Russia was able to use the civil war as an excuse for sending troops in. Now, it is a faithful little toady country that asked Moscow for its annexation.

Facetically, General Minnekayev’s statement is ridiculous. Russia lacks the combat power required to execute the Minnekayev’s plan. The Russian military is pressed around Kherson. It has not yet captured Mariupol. And it is currently engaged in an 1915-style war in the northern Donbas. Transnistria witnessed a number of developments Monday that hinted at a Putin-inspired strategy to alter the course of war. It is his desire to increase it.

Monday started with an “RPG attack” on the ministry of state security. Noticeably, nobody was hurt.

Prior to any investigation, the suspect was identified.

Monday night, the antennae that were used to serve a pro-Russian media outlet’s newsroom were damaged. However, nobody was hurt.

Yet a third attack, this one on a minor airfield that caused no damage or casualties, was announced by the Russian Defense Ministry’s pet blogger, @wargonzo, who just happened to be there.

We see many things happening in a short time. Transnistria shut down its borders and placed its security forces under high alert. It also transferred control and command of its paramilitary force to the Armed Forces.

 

Moldova has reciprocated.

Meanwhile, Transnistria residents headed towards the exits.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, ominously expressed hope that Russia wouldn’t have to roll up its sleeves and sort things out.

What is all this really mean?

The initial signs of collapsing are already evident in the Russian forces around Kherson, which is under tremendous pressure. As I pointed out in Ukraine’s Future Depends on These Three Fights That Russia Must Win, Kherson is critical terrain for Russia if it wants a land bridge to Crimea. Kherson is also vital for the grandiose plan of connecting up with Transnistria. The whole Donbas fight will be complicated if Kherson is freed. Transnistria has around 1400 Russian troops. Transnistria has an estimated army of 5,000 soldiers and another 20,000 reserve troops. We don’t know what “reserves” and “Transnistria” look like, but if they are similar to the Russian reserve forces (Russia Calling 100,000 Reservists to Active Duty and Moving Wagner Group From Syria to Deal With Ukraine Manpower Crunch), they won’t generate much combat power.

However, Ukraine must react if 20,000 troops are sent towards Odesa. They will likely do so by withdrawing troops from Kherson or Donbas in order to combat the threat. Transnistria’s forces will be destroyed, but then what?

Maia Sandu is the president of Moldova. However, it is still unclear if Russia would be interested in de-escalation.

Moldova is an ally of NATO, however it maintains its neutrality. It doesn’t even allow its troops to participate in NATO exercises. There are however some exciting developments. One week ago, Moldova submitted a request to join the EU.

Putin is at the right place.

If Ukraine, as predicted, crushed the military thrust from Transnistria, it could shift the balance of power in the Donbas fight, and it probably wouldn’t put Transnistria in any danger. The Russians, on the other hand claim that Romania will invade Transnistria.

Romania might want to consider such an option if Transnistria joins this conflict.

 

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Pluralist

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