American strength cannot be replaced. They exert pressure on America’s enemies when they find weakness. Today, America’s enemies find weakness everywhere.
Vladimir Lenin supposedly stated that his preferred foreign policy strategy was to “probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.” Vladimir Putin follows the same strategy. Putin has upped the pressure this week by increasing his military operations against Kyiv as well as Kharkiv. Putin has launched strikes on Ukrainian targets close to the Polish border and threatened to strike a NATO member. To keep Europe captive, he continues to use his oil and natural gas supply. He continues to use his foreign policy to justify the threat of war if the West sent in additional armaments, including MiGs to repel the Russian invasion. China is his most recent supporter. To press America for concessions to evade sanctions, he used America’s unrestrained desire for a nuclear Iran deal.
Putin’s repeated pressure on the West has gotten mixed results. Some types of West material such as Stinger missiles and Javelin have continued to be shipped by the West. This week the Biden administration announced that it would first allow shipping of MiGs from Ukraine. Then, they backed down, asserting that this could amount to an increase in tensions. The West continues to maintain its economic sanctions. However, Russia said this week it would not allow Russia trade with Iran because the United States has made written concessions. This despite Iran shooting missiles at an American consulate in Erbil.
Is there a message to be taken from this endless waffling, and what is it? At best, the West’s threats seem sporadic and untrustworthy. Russia thinks that it can increase the force on Ukraine, and threat the West with nuclear war enough to make it a more difficult target. Russia might be able diplomatically to extricate Ukraine from the same military ties it had. Russia could succeed. Germans cannot continue to pay $8.25 a gallon for gasoline forever.
China, on the other hand, has been watching and observing. China has been offering itself out as a “neutral mediator” between Russia and the West, despite the fact that China is an out-and-out Putin ally. China is buying Russian assets that are in trouble at bargain prices to strengthen their relations with Russia. China also has a growing portfolio of Russian friends. China, however, hasn’t been able to get any real threat from the West. It doesn’t want to increase supply chain difficulties or worsen inflationary problems. As The New York Times reported, “a consensus is forming in Chinese policy circles that one country stands to emerge victorious from the turmoil: China.” Investors are beginning to worry about the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Non-aligned states are more cautious about Western promises. This is not a coincidence. While Team Biden attempts to reach Iran via Russia, Saudi Arabia declines to return Biden’s calls. Instead, it aims to China. India is a country that buys huge amounts of Russian weaponry to combat China and Pakistan. This makes it no surprise that Russia has refused to condemn India. If the West is not consistent, it can be a risky investment.
Already, Western deterrence has failed in Ukraine. Failure by the West to establish deterrence at the next phase in global geopolitics could lead to even more disastrous results. The current process of realignment will continue to accelerate, to the disadvantage of America and its allies.
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