Because Pennsylvania’s voting system remains an absolute dumpster fire, there was no resolution in Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary by the end of the night.
We do know that Kathy Barnette is out of the race, despite her late surge in polls. While she garnered nearly 25 percent of the vote, an impressive showing, her rise during the campaign occurred at a point where she just didn’t factor enough in early voting to be competitive. Had she been on people’s radar a month ago, things may have been different, and the situation serves as another reminder of why early voting is absolutely asinine.
Mehmet Oz is now tied with David McCormick for the nomination. Oz has a slight advantage of just over 2,000 votes, according to the most recent count.
Good morning! Welcome back to Day 2 for the PA GOP Senate primaries.
Here’s where things stand as we start the day –
Mehmet Oz 411,872 (31.26%)
David McCormick 409,308 (31.06%)
Kathy Barnette 325,835 (24.73%)Follow results here: https://t.co/4prVQOtYI3
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 18, 2022
Normally, one would assume Oz has it wrapped up, but again, because Pennsylvania’s voting system is a dumpster fire, there are outstanding ballots left, some of which won’t be counted until Friday. McCormick enjoys a 9 percent advantage over McCormick because most ballots that remain to be counted are still mail-in. To make matters more complicated, some of these ballots are located in Lancaster County which favors Oz.
Here’s an explanation of where things go from here.
1) The late-arriving mail ballots are not yet known. (Montgomery had 1,051 yesterday).
2) Lancaster County’s 5,172 uncounted GOP ballots are the biggest. It is one of few counties where Oz has already surpassed McCormick with mail.— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 18, 2022
This looks to be a new batch of mail votes, from Chester County in Pennsylvania. McCormick is leading Oz at 34-19%. They net 135 votes. He needs this pattern across the state, as more mail votes will be added today.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 18, 2022
In other words, it’s a toss-up at this moment. Still, I’d always want to be the person in the lead this late in the game, so my personal opinion is that Oz is the favorite to pull this thing out. Bear in mind — a difference of 0.5 percent of the vote or less will mean an automatic recount.
It will all come down to the outcome of outstanding mail-in votes. They will remain pro-McCormick at whatever rate is necessary. Or did Trump’s late endorsement of Oz shift the final mail-in away from McCormick? Unfortunately, it could be days before we have a final answer, and that’s simply unacceptable. Pennsylvania must reform its election system. Until it does, the people will be skeptical.
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