Numbers out of Nevada Could Be Lights out for Democrats – Opinion

When any discussion about the 2022 mid-terms occurs these days, the House of Representatives isn’t even much of a point of interest anymore. You always hate to count your chickens before they hatch, but things are so bad for the Democrat Party that it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that the GOP not only retakes the chamber but solidifies a huge majority in the process.

With that said, things are far more contentious in the Senate, where the seats are currently split dead even between each party’s caucus. Looking at the toss-ups according to RealClearPolitics, you’ve got seven races that will likely decide the balance of power. Unfortunately, there’s precious little polling in many of the races.

Following his decision to run for another term in the Senate, Ron Johnson (Republican from Wisconsin) is likely to be retained. Sen. Maggie Hassan is still in poor standing, which points to a good pickup opportunity for GOP members of the Granite State. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-AZ, is considered vulnerable. In a possible red wave environment Republican Ted Budd of North Carolina could be headed to Washington.

But being conservative and assuming the GOP doesn’t win all four of the aforementioned seats to gain the majority, that leaves Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as the races that will decide the Senate. To win the prize, Republicans will likely need to pick one of these three seats. Republican Herschel Walker will be the nominee in Georgia, and he’s consistently held a lead over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA). In Pennsylvania, Trump’s endorsement of Dr. Oz may have thrown a wrench in things, and that race is truly a toss-up.

Then there’s Nevada. It’s not a race we hear much about it, but new numbers out of the state may prove to be lights out for Democrats.

Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll

U.S. Senate race
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 40%
Adam Laxalt (R) 43%
These candidates are not 3%
Undecided: 14%

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 39%
Sam Brown (R), 40%
These candidates are not eligible for 5%
Undecided 17%

— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022

A down 40 percent incumbent and being beaten head to head by the likely nominee is red-alert territory. Adam Laxalt, the odds-on favorite for the GOP primary win, is an example of this. Nevada was meant to be the state where Democrats turned blue. If it turns back to red in this cycle it will impact the subsequent election cycles. Can we expect the same trend to occur in Colorado as well, which Democrats have assumed will always be blue? I’m not going to go that far, but that’s still not territory the left expected to be playing defense on.

The midterm elections in Nevada for Senate and governorship are both fascinating. That’s because the state will serve as ground zero for a test of just how much ground Republicans have gained with Hispanic voters. Looking back at the 2020 elections, it was clear that there had been some movement. The 2021 election was what really showed the magnitude of things that were happening. As some speculate, if Republicans begin to win the votes from a large number of Hispanics like many believe will occur, this will result in a major victory in 2022. However, perhaps even more important, it will open the door for other wins, including those in the 2024 presidential election.

For decades, Democrats have taken Hispanics for granted, assuming that “demographics are destiny” and that their votes are locked in. If that changes — and Nevada will be the canary in the coal mine this cycle — it’s going to be a disaster for the left.

Getting back to the big picture, though, if Democrats lose the Senate seat in Nevada, it’s all over but the crying. Even though Republicans may lose in Pennsylvania and Georgia, which is highly unlikely given political realities, the victory in the Silver State will ensure the majority. Yes, I’m assuming wins and holds in other places, but there is no realistic scenario where the GOP wins in Nevada but somehow gets beaten everywhere else I mentioned. That’s just not how mid-term elections work.

Nothing is for certain, but I know I’d much rather be the GOP right now.