Harry Enten is now a household name among Republicans. Enten is a rare find among liberal media members who will break bad news for Democrats. Here and here are a couple of recent examples of Enten telling it like it is.
CNN Polling Maven, was back Day of the New This morning. Dems had lots of bad news. Even the good news that some Dems may see as positive. . . Could be bad news.
There were two good metrics for Republicans.
First, in the 2022 primaries, turnout is way up among Republicans—and down among Democrats. Enten stated, “Look at that number! It’s up 29%!” A rise like this is a sign that something is cooking. And here’s what it is: Republicans are very engaged.
The second is that Republican enthusiasm has risen significantly since the 2018 midterms, while Dem enthusiasm has fallen. In 2018, the Dems held a six-point advantage in enthusiasm. Republicans now have a 10% lead. “So look at 2022, extremely enthusiastic to vote in the midterms, right now 30% of Republicans versus just 20% of Democrats.”
As for that good news for Dems that could actually be bad news: Enten displayed data indicating that Biden is well-positioned to cruise to the Dem nomination in 2024, given his still-high approval rating among Dems. This news might be good for some Dems. Do the Dems want to vote in two years’ time with such a poor candidate?
But then again, what do the Dems need to replace Biden at top of the ticket’s ladder? Bernie Sanders looks tanned and rested. AOC is more than old enough to be able to run again. Kamala is always there. You should try it.
CNN’s New Day featured Harry Enten, a polling expert, sharing data that shows Republican primary voting is increasing while Dem voting is decreasing. Additionally, Republican enthusiasm and support are up, while Dem enthusiasm is declining. This was made possible by the sponsorship of Pfizer and Sling as well as Amazon and Servpro.
The transcript is here.
CNN
Day of the New
6/23/22
6:23 am EDTJOHNBERMAN – This morning’s numbers reveal how engaged the voters are heading into this year’s midterms. Joining me now, CNN senior data reporter, Harry Enten.
Harry, 2018 was a record year in terms of enthusiasm and midterm turnout. It’s almost 100 years old. Where are things right now?
HARRY ENTEN: We can take a look at the primary for you to get an idea. It’s been said that voters will become less engaged once Trump is gone. Actually, the primaries have seen them more engaged than ever before.
This is 2022’s primary turnout, compared with 2018. This is a great deal! We are up by 12%. We are up by 12% The Democrats are actually down by 3%, although I do not believe that is the case. This is due primarily to Republican primary turnout. This number is up 29% You know there’s something cooking when you see such a dramatic rise.The electorate has become more involved in the process.
. . .
BERMAN: Which is more committed?
ENTEN It’s the Republicans driving this passion.
So Take 2022 as an example. It is very exciting to vote in midterm elections, with 30% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats. Let’s go back to 2018. These numbers changed. There was more enthusiasm for voting among Democrats than there were for Republicans. This is good news for RepublicansMidterms don’t only have to do with preference; they also need to be about driving turnout.
BERMAN Harry, these numbers reveal an intriguing story.
ENTEN Look at the presidents that cruise to renomination based on intraparty approval. That would also be true for Democrats with Biden. It’s just before the New Hampshire primaries, isn’t it? As you can see, the approval ratings for presidents who rushed to renomination were either in high 80s or low 90s (in the cases of Trump and Eisenhower).
Check out where Biden’s approval ratings are right now. It is currently 82%. It looks very much like other presidents, who cruised to their renomination. We still have a long way to go before the primaries, but that could change. However, at the momentBiden’s approval ratings are at the level they need to be among Democrats if they want to avoid a primary challenge.
Here’s what makes it even more fun: take a look at presidents who actually faced a tough primary. Take a look at their approval ratings within their party. George H.W. was the only one who saw it in that range. Bush—who still won every single primary, right? However, he was given a scare by Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire.
The problem is that Look at the approval ratings of presidents who lost or dropped out of the primary election.within their own party. All at 44% in Truman’s ’52 or in the 60s in Ford and Carter who had really difficult nomination fights. With Joe Biden currently at 82%, this is far below the historical average.
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