If we were to conduct a snap poll on social media and ask: If Donald Trump runs for president in 2024 (it’s inconceivable at this point that he won’t), will he win back the White House? Responses would range from “Hell yes” to “Hell no” — with a myriad of other responses and plenty of heated debate in between.
Favorability ratings, projections of head-tohead and other tools for projection are all based upon current data. Numbers can also change as circumstances or future developments dictate. However, Trump is the clear winner in nearly every poll and survey.
It’s hard to see that changing.
RealClearPolitics averages, as I write, show Biden with a -9.1 percent spread, with a favorability rating of 42.6 percent and 51.7 percent unfavorable. Trump’s rating is -3.5 at 45.8 % favorable and 49.3 % unfavorable. Kamala Harris scores -11.8%, at 39.2 % favorable and 50.8 % unfavorable.
While poll numbers may change regularly, the pattern is still clear. Joe Biden has been an unsuccessful president since Day 1. He has focused his Oval Office occupation on issues after issues, practically on purpose. (See: Biden Border Crisis, Biden Oil Crisis, Biden Afghanistan Debacle, Bidenomics, Bidenflation.)
As my colleague, Nick Arama reported on Tax Day last week (of all days), when even CNN declares it’s “really, really, really, bad” for Biden? Yeah, it’s really, really, really bad for the worst president in modern history — if not of all time. Nick made the following observation in his article:
Donald Trump had an average job approval rating of 42 percent at this point in his presidency — that’s despite being under constant media attack so that skews the number. But meanwhile, Joe Biden who has had largely positive coverage from the liberal media — and certainly nothing compared to the attacks made against Trump — is still at a lower number — with 41 percent.
According to The Atlantic, eight months after the Biden presidency began, top Democrats started discussing Biden’s failures openly in late September 2021. Bills began to stall in Congress, rank-and-file Democrats had already begun to deny Biden the same “grace” they showered on Barack Obama, and the ever-confused
MumblesJoe struggled to stay on task.
These realities have progressively (pun intended) worsened as the months have ticked by — further exacerbated by the 79-year-old president’s continued steady decline in mental acuity.
The bottom line: I have to believe nervous-as-hell Democrat lawmakers would wave a magic wand if they had one, and make Biden and Harris disappear — at least from the 2024 presidential ticket. Moreover, I can’t help but believe there aren’t discussions to that effect in the upper echelons of the Democrat Party. That’s my opinion.
What about Donald Trump?
As I suggested at the top, even the most casual of political observers would be flabbergasted at this point if Trump pulled up on his reins sometime in the next month or two and said, “Nah, I’m no longer interested; I’m out.” Stranger things have happened, but yeah; talk about a major jolt.
Trump still reigns supreme in the Republican Party, 15 months after his resignation. In pursuit of Trump’s endorsement, pilgrimages continue to be made to Mar-a-Lago. His Trumpaloozas appear to have a larger crowd than ever. And most of all, avid supporters want nothing more than a rematch with Biden — to restore the rightful order of things, as it were.
Biden Does run — a disaster for the Democrat Party of incalculable proportions — I can’t see how Trump loses. This would mean that 2024 will be very similar to 2016, 2020, and so on. In 2016, millions of votes were “Not Hillary,” while untold numbers of votes in 2020 were “Not Trump.”
While some in the Republican Party tend to go off the rails over the notion, it’s true — particularly among independent voters. That said, I can’t foresee tens of millions of disillusioned and angry independents, along with a substantial number of like-minded Democrats, voting for Biden again.
Now, back to Donald.
Just the News noted that Trump does better on job approval ratings than on favorability ratings.
While the latter focuses more on personal feelings, the former is more about a subject’s performance in office. Throughout Trump’s time in the White House, consistent polling showed the public approved of his job as president more than they approved of him as a person. Now, toss in Biden’s catastrophic job performance — and Trump looks unstoppable.
Yet again: What if Biden and Trump were not?
CacklesKamala is the leader of the Democrat ticket for 2024. Would “Teflon Don” still be unstoppable?
In terms of the primaries, if Trump does run, I can’t see Ron DeSantis or any other serious contender entering the race; I believe “they” would sit this one out and wait until 2028 or even 2032 to make a decision to run, so the likelihood of a Trump vs. (fill in the blank) race could very well become a reality.
Who will win? Who can predict a race against a “yet-to-be-announced Democrat nominee not named Joe Biden or Kamala Harris”? You can’t. Neither can I. Objectively speaking, it is.
RedState is related to:
Even WaPo Isn’t Excited About the Dems’ 2024 Prospects
Kamala Harris Takes the Most Tough Hit in Bernie Sanders’ 2024 Debate
The Trump-Morgan Interview is a Sign of Things To Come in 2024? I have some concerns</em>