As reported Monday, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to be in full swing. Moscow has deployed nearly 100 percent of its troops at the border with the conflict. After nearly ten days of war, Ukraine continues to mount a brave defense against Moscow and has suffered serious losses on both sides.
Russia’s forces managed to capture Kherson, the first Ukrainian city to fall during the conflict. However, they were unable to take the capital city of Kyiv. Nevertheless, Moscow appears to remain undeterred in its effort to topple Ukraine’s government. Is it possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin was wrongly calculating the consequences of these developments? Does Russia seem to be losing?
A video recently went viral on social media in which a captured Russian soldier criticized his country’s aggression and asked for mercy for his fellow soldiers. National Guard Lt. Col. Astakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich called on his compatriots not to continue the war effort. “You are in a tense situation, going against your own commander, but this is genocide,” he pleaded. “Russia cannot win here anyway, even if we go until the very end. We can invade the territory, but we cannot invade the people.”
He then addressed Ukrainians, saying that he feels “shame that we came into this country.”
“I don’t know why we were doing it,” he continued. “We knew very little. We brought sorrow to this land.”
The officer explained that he and his fellow soldiers were told by the Russian government that “nationalists and Nazis had seized power” in Ukraine and that it was headed towards fascism.
“Obviously, this information was unilateral information,” he said.
He stated that Russia’s troops do not wish to have war and that he hoped “for your mercy toward those people who come to you with their hands up or those who are wounded,” and that “we should not sow death. It’s better to sow life.”
This is out of #UkraineIt is one of the best videos I’ve ever seen.
Russian POW has the heart and soul of a Lion🦁 pic.twitter.com/KIx1rsN0CZ
— Jackie Singh 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 (@hackingbutlegal) March 6, 2022
The public seems to have turned against Putin even within his country. An influential Russian oligarch called for the President to stop hostilities, and also shared a video critiquing the invasion. The Washington Examiner reported:
Oleg Deripaska, known for his prior business relationships with former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and British ex-spy Christopher Steele, and who is accused of assisting the Russian government’s influence operations worldwide, repeatedly tweeted Monday that “we need peace” and shared a lengthy video from Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari, who criticized Putin and his invasion.
“I don’t always agree with [Harari] … But here I do agree with him, and I am sure most Russian people do — we need peace,” Deripaska tweeted. “We need peace as soon as possible, as we have already passed the point of no return — and this is the second point I agree with. The entire world will be different, Russia will be different as well.”
The video included in Deripaska’s post was a TED talk interview with Harari.
“It’s not the Russian people who want this war. It’s really just a single person who, by his decisions, created this tragedy,” Harari explained, “The Russian people don’t really want this war. Even the people in the immediate circle around Putin, you know, again, I don’t know them personally, but from what it seems, these people, they like life.”
Like many others, the historian also surmised that Putin had underestimated Ukraine’s willingness to fight and also the resolve of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“His belief was, at least, that he just needs to invade, Zelensky will flee, the government will collapse, the army will lay down its arms, and the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russian liberators, throwing flowers at them,” Harari said. “And this fantasy has been shattered already. Zelensky hasn’t fled. Ukrainian troops are fighting. And the Ukrainian people is not throwing flowers on the Russian tanks — it’s throwing Molotov cocktails.”
More interesting, however is the recent news about alleged Zelensky assassination plots. Three unsuccessful attempts to assassinate the Ukrainian President were made by the Russian government, according to reports. The reason these operations failed is that anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service alerted Zelensky’s camp beforehand. Combined with the protests that have occurred in Russia – which were promptly stamped out by Putin’s forces – it is clear that public opinion is making it more difficult for the Russian president to topple Ukraine’s government.
These developments do not guarantee that Putin will get the results he desires. However, it shows that it is not going to be easy for him to achieve his goals. It is possible, however, that Moscow will find it difficult to survive. If this happens, America and Europe may need to be prepared to give Putin an off-ramp of sorts – a way for him to cease hostilities while saving face. It will be fascinating to see what happens.
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