It is not surprising that a Fox poll shows Glenn Youngkin leading by eight points in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. It is simply too big of an outlier compared to everything else we’ve seen, and while I do hope Youngkin wins and know he’s made a lot of in-roads with concerned parents, this poll does not have me convinced. It is not yet.
McAuliffe still seems like the favourite to win, but at this stage, it is an open race. Without the Fox Poll, McAuliffe is up one point, well within the margin of error in all the polling since his shocking admission that he believes parents shouldn’t be involved with education. And if you look at the trends on RealClearPolitics, you can see that McAuliffe has been on a fairly steep slope for the last two weeks while Youngkin has been narrowing the gap to the point that it’s essentially a tie.
Despite my belief that the Fox poll was an anomaly, I see the trend. Democrats continue to believe this movement that has risen up against Critical Race Theory, masking in schools, and the like is simply a Republican-organized movement, but the public polling we’ve seen very much indicates that this is far more widespread than a bunch of conservatives trying to take on Democrats.
However, there are some things you should be aware of.
First, the education question. Public and private polls show that Democrats are losing the battle to protect public education from parents. They are very underwater on this, and the Department of Justice’s involvement made things worse. Recent stories have been flooded with details about the hostility Democrats, school board members and parents show toward each other. It isn’t the parents who started this war, but they are fighting it to the finish.
Economy is the second problem. In short, it’s abysmal and we’re very likely headed back toward a recession. The American economy is plagued by inflation, shortages and supply chain problems. This makes it very difficult for middle-class families, who are expected to provide large portions of next week’s votes. Couple this with employment issues and the education issues above, and you’ll see two things happen to the voting turnout: White, suburban women will turn out for Youngkin in higher than expected numbers and black families will turn out at lower than expected numbers for McAuliffe.
Joe Biden is the final problem that Democrats have to deal with. His approval rating has fallen to a low of ten percent and his public appearance on the night before doesn’t appear to have had much impact on enthusiasm. Only voters living in Northern Virginia are likely to be interested in the plan of making the election all about Donald Trump. Even then, the appeal to Trump is very limited. This campaign is no longer about issues.
It has been McAuliffe’s campaign to lose, and by God he is on the cusp of doing so. Combine this with the New Jersey’s narrowing, but still comfortably Democratic, gubernatorial election and you will see that Biden is pulling down Democrats with him. Virginia won by him by ten percentage points. McAuliffe is three points higher in the latest Monmouth poll. New Jersey is the state that Biden won with 17 points. Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy is up 11 according to the Monmouth poll. The President is a drag on his own party, and there doesn’t appear to be any hope in sight between now and election day in Virginia.
If it turns out that McAuliffe wins with as narrow a victory as can be predicted by the polling, the Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief and they will probably continue on as they are… which would be a really bad move. Their public opinion is strongly against them and they will double- and triple the effort to implement controversial policies that make them toxic.
And if Youngkin wins? Expect tears, rage, and accusations of a stolen election… which, incidentally, are just fine when a Democrat does it.
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