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the Latest Numbers Say It’s Coming and It’s Big – Opinion

By Pluralist / July 24, 2022

Prepare for the incoming red wave, because we just got more signs that, if the numbers hold, it’s going to be big.

A week ago, I wrote about the Fox poll showing that the Republicans were up three points on the generic ballot. Fox News models show that the advantage in this poll would result in a GOP victory with an increase of 23 seats.

Other polls show that the number is even greater.

The Trafalgar Group poll regarding the generic Congressional election ballot is first. The Republicans have a higher percentage of likely voters than the Democrats, 48.3 per cent to 40.2.

That’s with even a greater percentage of Democrats being polled than Republicans, with Democrats 39 percent, Republicans 36 percent, and independents 25 percent.

It’s not just the Trafalgar poll. The Rasmussen poll for the generic ballot just went up by two points for the Republicans over what it was last week; now, it’s in amazing double-digits for the Republicans over the Democrats, 49 percent to 39 percent.

There’s also another poll specifically on the Arizona Congressional ballot by CD/Big Data and that has Republicans leading by nine points.

Our sister site PJ Media also reported the following:

In 2018, Democrats had a 7-point advantage in the generic Congressional ballot among potential voters. This was compared to 47% to 40% in 2017, when control of Congress fell. After Election Day, this spread became a statistical deadlock. After the dust had settled, Republicans held on to the Senate with an increase in their power while Democrats won the House by a narrow margin.

Due to a greater GOP partisan intensity, and 17 points more independent votes than Republicans, the Republican advantage on the congressional ballot was largely due to the Republican’s lead. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among those not associated with any major party, 44% would vote Republican while 27% would vote Democrat. 10% and 20% would choose to vote for another candidate.

A notable stat from Rasmussen’s latest poll shows that 27% prefer a generic Republican candidate to 57% who would choose a Democrat. The other minorities are nearly evenly divided, with 41% choosing a Republican candidate while 44% preferring the Democrat. White voters prefer the generic Republican candidate by 21 points (55% to 34%).

So, we’re a month past the Roe decision–did that energize the Democrats? In the week after the decision, the Republicans were only up by five points in the Rasmussen poll; now, they’re up 10. The following chart adds additional information. It seems that polls are showing the same results among potential voters.

An analysis of these numbers suggests that the trial’s efforts to be held by the Jan. 6 Committee may also fail. We mentioned that this could cost Democrats more votes as people perceive them to be more interested in attacking political opponents than they are doing the work for the American people. When the people are being crushed by Bidenflation, that’s a bad look.

Add that into polls that have Joe Biden hitting 29 percent approval, then wallowing around 30 and 31 percent, and you know it doesn’t look good for the Democrats.

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Pluralist

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