Yesterday, Chuck Schumer threatened to nuke the filibuster if the Republicans didn’t go along with the Democrats’ “voting rights” bill. It’s a very weird threat, given that he doesn’t have the votes to do that and everyone inside Washington D.C. and out knows it.
Despite that, Schumer continues to pretend that he has any sort of power in the Senate, when it’s clear to everyone the most powerful people in the Senate are, in order:
- Joe Manchin
- Mitch McConnell
- Nancy Pelosi
Schumer lacks any power. At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that he can get his party to come together to pass a resolution, much less a full-blown bill.
The Democrats’ problem is fear. They are aware that Congress’s hold is only temporary, and the Biden agenda will never be implemented. The Senate is the problem. The House can pass anything it wants, but the Democrats have to deal with the filibuster in order to pass something, and even on bills that don’t require a filibuster (reconciliation bills) they can’t get the whole caucus on board.
Joe Manchin, and Kyrsten Silena, are partly to blame for all of this. They know the truth behind closed doors that it is far worse than they realize.
Sinema and Manchin get all of the credit, but there are still a few Senate Democrats who will be really in trouble come midterm election time because their seats are not safe or competitively purple. Manchin covers for these seats.
There’s a very good chance the Republicans take the House this year. Right now, it’s likely they also take the Senate. But the House has a lot of purple seats and Democrats who aren’t safe. The Senate has a few seats that are possibly up for grabs, but those Democrats are currently being led to their doom with a “Build Back Better” agenda that will almost certainly be too far a push to the left for most moderate voters.
That’s where Manchin could end up saving the Democrats in the Senate. However, he could not keep Congress divided unless the Democratic Party stops pushing the Biden agenda.
If those Senate Democrats who are at risk don’t have to take a vote on a very progressive, very expensive bill, then there is less ammo to use against them. They could be benefited in the end. It’s not a guarantee, but they would be much better off than the moderate Democrats who were forced to vote for the Biden agenda in the House before it got (predictably) shelved in the Senate. Now those House Democrats are carrying a heavy weight that will and can cause them to fall.
Mind you, none of these are guarantees. It is possible for the Democrats to come up with something. They could, quite capably, win the victory. Maybe Manchin’s long game isn’t enough to save the Senate for the Democrats.
However, I am able to confidently state that Manchin does more to preserve Democratic seats than Schumer and Pelosi. Manchin realizes more than any other member of his party that Biden was chosen by voters to be their moderate candidate in 2020. Biden is destroying the reputation of every voter he has angered and is putting his life at risk for a progressive legacy which can easily be undone.
Manchin wants to be more strategic. He is determined to keep his place and wants the party to play more strategically. They just won’t listen. The hero can’t be a hero when no one wants to be saved.
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