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Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Reaches Its Culmination Point and Zelensky Plays Hardball in the Peace Negotiations – Opinion

By Pluralist / March 22, 2022

In military operations at the operational, that is, campaign level, the ‘culminating point’ occurs when a force on the offensive no longer can continue large-scale offensive operations and must go on the defense. When counterattacks become impossible, the force must be on defense. This is when what you’re doing no longer makes sense and you have to do something different.

I think we’ve reached that point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Our assessment that the Russian campaign has culminated and that conditions of stalemate are emerging rests on our assessments, laid out carefully in many fully documented reports published on our website (not just maps) and increasingly validated by reports from various Western intelligence communities, that the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. These mobilizations that Russia is engaging in are likely to bring about renewed fighting power within months. If nothing happens to break this stalemate, it is unlikely to be broken for many months. Our assessment is based on our projection.

Of course, we could all be wrong. It could be that this is the case.

  1. They could fall apart. They might run out of vital materials. Based on what CTP and ISW have seen, this seems unlikely.
  2. Russians may be able find ways to create a mechanized enough force large enough to surround Kyiv. Our assessment is that the Russians do not have the capability to do that based on our study of their performance and of their military’s reserve system. This is what prompted us to call this campaign over. However, we might be mistaken. Russia could build a powerful mechanized force that is large and effective quickly. This would allow them to completely change the way they approach things and launch a decisive, mechanized campaign.
  3. Russians may have sufficient artillery and missile power to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces that are defending Kyiv. While this seems like the most plausible way that our assessment might be falsified it is not. Russians have many weaknesses in their ability mass air, rocket and artillery fires and effects. They also face obvious logistical and production issues that are difficult to resolve quickly. It’s also very hard to create such powerful fires to counter the weaknesses of Russian mechanized forces in the face of an adversary as determined and determined as the Ukrainians.

The ground evidence supports this conclusion.

Satellite imagery depicts Russian troops digging in, instead of mobile operations.

The former US Army Europe commander (USAREUR), Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) can be contacted for more information. Ben Hodges shares his view.

(Full Disclosure: Ben Hodges knows me and has stayed in my home.

Both sides can’t do huge things but they are both involved in local offensive operations.

Russian offensive operations are focused upon reducing and capturing Mariupol. See Mariupol Defenders reject Russian demand for surrender Setting up largest siege of a city since WWII and linking Russia’s fake-states Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Ukrainian operations are focused upon holding ground and cutting off Russian communication lines.

The standoff between the sides is similar to that between the United Nations Command (China Communists) and July 1951, when the armistice was signed. Although there are some bloody acts and jockeying for place, the emphasis has moved from combat operations towards preparing oneself for victory. It is now a question of who can hold this war together on the terms that are most advantageous to them.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine seems to believe it’s him.

In an earlier post on the negotiations (see Proposed ‘Fifteen Point Peace Plan’ in Russia-Ukraine War Is a Total Defeat for Putin, but Zelensky Is Biding His Time), Zelensky is quoted as saying the negotiations need to continue until the situation is more favorable to Ukraine. He has now taken steps that appear to be more focused on the continuation of war and still engage in negotiations.

Zelensky and the Future of Negotiations made critical statements Monday.

The first was that he declared any peace deal would have to be submitted to a referendum. In this vote, we’ll get to see if Ukraine is willing to make territorial concessions and accept Russian as an official language alongside Ukrainian.

He made the second demand. A peace agreement will only be possible if Vladimir Putin meets with him in order to finalize the details.

“I believe that until such time as we have a meeting with the president of the Russian Federation…you cannot truly understand what they are prepared to do in order to stop the war and what they are prepared to do if we are not ready for this or that compromise,” Zelenskiy said in the interview.

…
“I am ready at a meeting with the president of Russia to raise the issue of occupied territories, but I am certain that a solution will not come at this meeting,” Zelenskiy said in his interview.
…
“If people are trying to stop a war, there is a cease-fire and troops are withdrawn. The presidents meet, reach an agreement on withdrawing troops and there are security guarantees of one sort or another,” he said. “Compromises must be found, one way or another of guaranteeing our security.”

You should also take note of the other things he said in his statement. A cease-fire cannot be reached without Russian troops being withdrawn. The status of Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk is not included in any peace agreement.
Zelensky’s ability to make that stick will allow the war to be one step closer than the Ukrainian Army marching into Moscow over its impact on Putin. As a quick reminder, Putin has stated his war aims several times, and I’ve listed them below.

  • Donetsk independence and Luhansk independence
  • Ukrainian recognition of Russian ownership in Crimea
  • The disbanding of the Ukrainian Army (his codeword is “demilitarization”).
  • Ukraine has decided to renounce any application for NATO membership.
  • The Ukrainian government of “nazis and drug addicts” be replaced.

If the territorial issues are off the table, the Zelensky government and its army are still in place, and Russian troops are withdrawn, all Putin gets is an agreement on NATO membership that he could’ve gotten without war. Zelensky’s meeting with Putin is the cherry on top. Since he was elected president, Putin has not met or spoken with Zelensky.

While no one is sure how the war will turn out, Russia has significantly reduced its chances of reaching its war goals as it approaches its second month. The one thing that is evident is the fact that Zelensky doesn’t act like a wounded man and Ukraine does not behave like a defeated nation.

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Pluralist

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