The Russian military gave a briefing Friday on Friday, a month into the seemingly long conflict in Ukraine. It explained where they are and the next steps.
General Sergei Rudskoy, Chief of Main Operational Directorate for the Russian Armed Forces General Staff was the briefer. Notable was the absence of certain people. The Defense Minister and well-known media whore Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Rudskoy’s boss (read Russia’s Defense Minister Surfaces After Two Week Disappearance and the Mystery Deepens). The briefing also revealed that it was simply an exercise in goalpost movement.
Before we go further, let’s revisit the goals of the Ukraine invasion that Russian President Vladimir Putin has articulated on multiple occasions.
- Zelensky’s government was he claimed to be engaged in genocide, and that it consisted of drug addicts as well as nazis. He called for its removal.
- He demanded the disbanding of the Ukraine armed forces, which he characterized as “demilitarizing” Ukraine.
- He asked that Ukraine amend its constitution so that it forbids NATO membership, and that Ukraine be closed to all foreign troops and missiles.
- He demanded that the government of Ukraine recognize Russia’s theft of Crimea.
- He demanded from the government of Ukraine that they recognize the independent status of the fake states Russia created in Donbas.
The New York Times describes the situation as follows:
A statement by Russia’s Defense Ministry said the goals of the “first stage of the operation” had been “mainly accomplished,” with Ukraine’s combat capabilities “significantly reduced,” and that it would now focus on securing Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting for eight years.
However, the Defense Ministry did not make any mention of possible Russian territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Its ground forces were largely impeded by the unanticipatedly strong Ukrainian military response.
The statement was made on the day that President Biden visited U.S. troops in Poland at the Ukrainian border. It suggested that Russia might be looking to make some sort of breakthrough before the cost of their war a month earlier became too much.
While Russia “does not exclude” that its forces will storm major Ukrainian cities such as Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and the capital, Kyiv, the Defense Ministry statement said that taking them over was not the primary objective.
“As individual units carry out their tasks — and they are being solved successfully — our forces and means will be concentrated on the main thing: the complete liberation of the Donbas,” Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, a senior Russian military commander, said in the statement, his first since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24.
Whether General Rudskoi’s statement was sincere or simply strategic misdirection was difficult to assess. But the statement amounted to the most direct acknowledgment yet that Russia may be unable to take full control of Ukraine and would instead target the Donbas region, where Russia has recognized the independence of two Kremlin-backed separatist areas that it calls the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and the “Luhansk People’s Republic.”
Russia has also insisted that Ukraine recognize its control of Crimea, which President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces seized from Ukraine in 2014.
Volodymyr Zelesky, President of Ukraine, has decided against ceding the regions that were involved in the conflict.
Polina Ivanova, Financial Times Moscow correspondent offers some concise bullet points.
- Firstly, the generals said Russia had always intended only to ‘liberate’ the Donbas, that was what it set out to do. There were two choices: either fight in the east and allow Kyiv replenish its troops, or attack the entire country with military capabilities.
- Over a month of war, Russia has knocked out most of Ukraine’s military capacities, the generals claimed, so can now move on to next phase, which will only be focused on the east, which could involve heavy bombardment.
- Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said – these are not setbacks in other words, it’s all part of the plan. It was meant to distract Ukrainian forces from Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk’s territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.
- Many statements were made regarding not attacking civilian infrastructure and avoiding civilian casualties.
- A new figure was also presented by Defence ministry briefing. It is the second official statement from the Russian side regarding the death toll of Russian soldiers during this conflict. Said 1,351 were killed – figure is far below Ukrainian and international estimates.Russia Accepts 5201 Ukrainian Casualties, But the Numbers Ask more Questions than They Answer. This is my commentary about the casualty figures.
Below are some observations. You can see that the Kremlin quietly edits victory conditions. While Putin’s goals are all political, they require complete military success to achieve. In other words, unless the Zelensky government is overthrown, the Ukrainian military disbanded, and a puppet government, like the one defenestrated by a popular uprising in 2014, installed, Putin can’t achieve his goals. According to the Russian general staff, nothing it’s doing is furthering those goals.
They are abandoning the idea of creating conditions that Putin can replace Zelensky by occupying Donbas. Interestingly, they use the old Soviet terminology of “liberation.” Oddly enough, if they are successful in this endeavor, all they will have done is prolong the war because Zelensky has taken the status of Donbas off the table as an item in peace negotiations. Donetsk or Luhansk may be handed over to the Ukrainians.
The military claims that most of Ukraine’s capabilities are knocked out when the facts say otherwise. Russia is yet to attain air supremacy and Ukrainian counterattacks drove the front close to Kiev 25 km back in just two days.
To claim the attack on the northern Ukraine border was merely a feint is an insult. The invasion should have been weighted if the goal was to occupy Donbas. It is clear that Russia intended to occupy Kiev, and other populations centers. This can be seen in the disposition of troops. It is possible that it was only a feint. They need to explain this to some battalions from dead paratroopers who were trying to seize objectives in the vicinity of Kiev.
Although there might be an effort to focus on Donbass, there are still some issues. According to the Pentagon, 75% of Russian-manufacturing units are currently tethered in Ukraine. The only remaining sources are the troops he has in other parts of Russia, the troops in Belarus, the troops currently engaged in what the General Staff has declared to be a secondary front, and the elusive body of Syrian jihadis and Wagner mercenaries that we’ve read about.
When the troops leave Belarus, those in Ukrainian are free to withdraw their forces. Then the strategic reserves of the Ukrainians will remain and can be used against Russia in Donbas or around Kiev.
If they attempt to withdraw from Russia’s northern frontier and to send the soldiers to support the Donbas efforts, they must break the contact and retreat into Russia. How will it be if Ukrainian troops occupy small towns in Russia? The Russian soldiers on the northern front may be in the exact same place as Gentleman Johnny Burgoyne of Saratoga. They can’t go forward, and they can’t go back. They will need to be kept alive by continuing infusions of troops, supplies and other resources that can go towards the Donbas.
According to reports, Russian troops may have been removed from Georgia’s borders but this will only be a fraction of what is required by the Russian General Staff for the plan to work.
Finally, I think the whole Syrian-Wagner story is a head fake by the Russians as a way to tell Ukraine, “give up, or we’ll unleash the barbarians on you.” I don’t think anyone is listening as the last barbarians, the Chechens, are acquiring a reputation as assclowns.
Although the Russians are making minor advances in Donbas, they still have two main issues. Second, Mariupol still remains under the control of Ukraine. It is not clear if Russia or Donetsk/Luhansk have the combat strength to capture and hold this city. Any incentive the city’s defenders had to surrender disappeared when the Russians gave a “no quarter” order; see Mariupol Defenders Reject Russian Demand for Surrender Setting up the Largest Siege of a City Since WWII. The Russians are likely to lose Kherson, a large Ukrainian city that it already seized. This is even more urgent. Kherson was sacked about a week following the invasion, as the Ukrainians were still in shock. This city, which is majority Ukrainian, has seen almost non-stop antiRussian demonstrations from its citizens.
The flag of Ukraine was raised in #Kherson, a city that’s been “occupied” by Russian forces for weeks. Nearly daily, protests by Ukrainians against Russian occupants are being held in this city. Another proof that Russia cannot hold any Ukrainian territory in the current war pic.twitter.com/LYpWPVIHMU
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) March 24, 2022
The Russians appear to be withdrawing from the area, while Ukrainian troops are already in the city. The Russian forces north of Kherson may be in trouble if Kherson falls. Kherson serves as their transportation hub, while artillery from the Kherson base and drones could threaten their rear areas.
What all this means is that the Russians have decided their original plan can’t work. It is not clear that the Russians’ new plan is better. They seem to believe that if they “liberate” Donbas, everyone will forget Putin’s demands from February. I don’t think that will be the case in Russia or the world, but that’s another argument. What remains unclear is where they generate the combat power to pull this plan off and how they think the Ukrainian army, which apparently is unaware that “most of its capacities” has been knocked out and now has its fangs out, can be controlled as they carry out their masterplan.
The other alternative is that this, like much of Moscow says, is just bullsh**, and they are trying to draw attention to Donbas before taking another run at Kiev.
Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin warned that public statements by Russian military commanders must be taken with skepticism. While Russia could indeed be narrowing its war aims, he said, General Rudskoi’s statement could also be a feint as Russia regroups for a new offensive.
“We could say that this is a signal that we’re no longer insisting on dismantling Ukrainian statehood,” Mr. Luzin said. “But I would rather see it as a distracting maneuver.”
It is the only way to help Putin reach his goals. However, a month later, there are less chances of Russia capturing Kiev than in February. Furthermore, Russia’s combat power will not be as great as it was when they invaded.
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