Russia Releases Its First Official Casualty Count From Its Ukraine Adventure – Opinion

A lot has been speculated on the death toll from the Russian invaders’ attempt to seize control of Ukraine. The official numbers from each side were revealed to us Wednesday. While the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims 5,840 Russian casualties, 2095 Russians were admitted by them.

⚡️Russia announces 498 deaths and 1,597 injuries in its first military casualties report.

According to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Russia has actually lost approximately 5,840 soldiers.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 2, 2022

Even if you are the most committed Putin fluffer getting paid by the hour to plague political blogs and post nonsensical statements about Russia’s awesomeness, you have to admit that nearly 2,100 casualties over seven days of a “cakewalk” (to coin a phrase) operation are a lot. It is the equivalent of an infantry battalion in Russia, which is about 300 troops per daily. The loss of just a few hundred soldiers is significant when you realize that the majority of casualties will be from front-line troops. This is particularly true since Ukraine’s inability to strike Russian rear echelons using drones. Allow me to clarify. The infantry division I was commanded had a Light Infantry Division. (Read the story of how we got here). A division could only have 10,000 soldiers. Three infantry brigades were formed in the division, each consisting of three battalions. This division had three infantry brigades, each consisting of three companies. This all means that the division’s foxhole strength, the sharp edge of the spear, is 27 rifle companies. There were 125 officers in each company, as well as noncommissioned officers. A Light Infantry Division had 3,375 soldiers on its front line, as well as 6,625 troops to support, supply, command and coordinate them. A Light Infantry American division that is combat efficient would become useless in the face of the Russians’ avarice in Ukraine in less than one week. By the by, I also estimated that Russia would lose 100-200 soldiers per day two days back, which was ridiculed by pro-Russian spammers who have infested our comments lists. Right now I am quite happy with my estimation.

Let’s look at US military performance. The US invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, and the “official” war closed with the fall of Baghdad (population 7 million versus 3 million in Kiev) on April 9 (according to Google Maps, it is 280 straight-line miles from the Kuwait border to Baghdad and 76 straight-line miles from the Russian border to Kiev). It took 20 days. While I can’t find a source to do a day-by-day count of casualties (the graph on page 11 of the link indicates about 30 dead and 130 wounded in March and April combined), the US military suffered from March 2003 through December 2003 468 killed and 2,416 wounded.

It is not the historical relationship between dead and wounded that one might expect. An army that has 498 soldiers killed is unlikely to have had only 1,600 injured. It should have been around 2,500. UNLESS Russian medical treatment is so inept, many men who could have survived were killed.

If the Russian casualty count is sufficient to allow for over 2000, then I believe the real number would be higher.