Vladimir Putin’s imaginary war of liberation of Ukraine from so-called Nazi elements in the beleaguered country is entering its third week. Two weeks ago, no one could have predicted that the war would expose flaws within world order’s assumptions. Shifting is also the Russian excuse for its presence in Ukraine.
In a report from Kyiv, freelance journalist Hollie McKay penned a report that appeared in the New York Post titled, Russian troops insist to Ukrainian that real target of war is ‘USA inside Ukraine’. McKay writes in the article
The Russian troops insist that they are targeting the US and not Ukraine after opening fire upon a Ukrainian national trying to flee from war-torn Ukraine. The resident said this traumatized.
“We’re not at war with Ukraine and Ukrainians, but at war with the USA inside Ukraine,” 55-year-old Igor Sitalo said Russian soldiers told him after they shot at him.
Sitalo was fleeing his hometown of Hostomel, a city of 16,000, with his German shepherd, Ralph, on Sunday when a bullet struck his hand, grazed his head — and killed his canine companion.
This shift in rhetoric moves away from vilifying Ukrainians and back to the “Empire of Lies” accusation that Putin made in his 5:00am Moscow Time television announcement of his “special military operation” on February 20, 2022. Russia has asked the United Nations for an investigation into Ukrainian labs that are being used as a bioweapon research center.
However, the Russian military is not as strong as they claim. The war has gone from an assumption–that taking Ukraine was simple affair, where the Russians would be welcomed with open arms as heroic saviors–turned out to be false. As a result of the mounting losses of personnel and equipment, it has become clear that technological developments in anti-tank tech in the hands and control of well-intentioned defenders can make military victory difficult and even impossible. Putin has declared that NATO’s weapons shipment to Ukraine is legitimate military targets. Russia also observed that Ukraine was receiving an influx in volunteer fighters. It is beginning to recruit fighters from war-torn Syria to its own foreign legion.
The Russian state media portrays the invading force as an attempt to save the Ukrainians. Russians are not convinced that their military is devastating cities. Many other Russians know that it’s now a 15-year prison sentence to question the war openly.
I contacted Hollie to inquire about how well Mr. Putin’s propaganda machine is working from the perspective of someone seeing it at the receiving end of the Russian barrage. She shared this snippet about Mr. Sitalo’s experience with his relatives in Russia, as an example of how the Russian propaganda machine is working.
The evacuees like Igor have been brought to a “transition point” called Bilohorodka, a small village around 14 miles west of Kyiv city. The convoys carried around 800 civilians from Irpin and Bucha as well as Vorzel, Hostomel and Hostomel. Many of these civilians have been trapped in bunkers since the war, and without heat or electricity for at least a week. After this, people can get medical attention and nutrition supplies. Then they will have to figure out where exactly they are going.
Nowhere is safe, and officials say they worry that the Russians will even assault the makeshift departure point when the ceasefire ends at midnight Wednesday.
Igor, who is sitting alone in the tent for volunteers, stares glumly at me later. The string of images that he sent in Russian to his friends and colleagues is what he shows me.
“Still, they do not believe me,” he says bitterly. “They do not believe I am injured; they do not believe Russians are doing these things. In a post in one of our aviation groups on Facebook, I wrote, ‘Brother Russians, what the f*ck are you doing? Why are you doing this?’”
Cultural Factors
I’ve spoken with other Russian friends about this phenomenon, and there is indeed a deep wound in the Russian psyche that goes back to the ending of the Cold War. Westerners view the Soviet leaders Mikhail Gorbachev’s actions as heroes who have opened the way for peace in the world. But Russians don’t like Mr. Gorbachev. Many see him as selling his country out to the West; an act that led to the end of the Soviet Union as an economic collapse in the mid-90’s, where many Russians suffered severe hardships. Vladimir Putin was made to the throne by this tragic event. He slowly restored the Russian Federation to the international stage as an economic and military power. They are grateful to him for it, and hesitant to believe that he could be throwing it all away in a brash act against Russia’s Ukrainian brothers.
However, Putin has decided to throw it all away. He’s turning Russia into a hermit kingdom like North Korea, and he’s taking the Russian people down with him. These actions will lead to another collapse in Russia’s economy and the return to the extreme hardships of 1990. He’s undone all that he did for his country. It’s sad. The Russian people should be treated better, it’s true. This is an issue of leadership that only the Russian people can fix.
In the Trenches
The West needs to find a solution that will stop Ukraine’s demise. It’s important to do so now, because letting Ukraine fall is an existential threat to the international system of free trade that the United States, Europe, and even China, have worked to build since the end of World War II. Cutting off the geographic center of Eurasia from the rest of the world’s economy changes the entire design of global infrastructure. It’s not only about the business and banking tables, it is also the world of power alliances and commerce. There is talk already of Venezuela and Iran being invited back to the League of Nations in order to replace Russia. That’s just the beginning of changes to come.
Russian logistic planning is more complex than expected. Scenes of commercial vehicles on trains being rushed from Russia to Ukraine appear on the internet — revealing a fact, that Russian military hardware is no longer enough to sustain forces in the field. The harsh reality for the Russian high command is also setting in; they simply won’t be able to afford to permanently occupy Ukraine, which is the size of Texas, over the long term against an insurgency of 44 million people.
So, Vladimir Putin looks to be going back to his favorite, cruel strategies, channeling methods of old empires that would routinely sweep through Eurasia destroying everything in their path to “pacify” the conquered regions, so they would not be a threat to their homeland. After two weeks, Russia’s campaign moves to state-sponsored terror of siege warfare. Civilians are now part of the Russian missiles and aircraft target list. He’s doing precisely what Mr. Sitalo’s relatives in Russia are in denial of.
Prior to the current phase, it was clear that Russian generals wanted to minimize civilian casualties. Although they initially agreed to surrender, most of the time refused. The Ukrainians seemed to go to extraordinary lengths to select targets. These careful tactics rarely last long with determined enemies, but the Ukrainians proved to be very determined.
It has been shown that the Ukrainians are able to create a much better organization of their military than those from Russia. The Russian military is still a system of command and control that is centralized. This is despite decades of modernization. It relies on an operative in the field to make decisions. This form of command work well in peacetime, when it’s mostly table top and field exercises; but it tends to falter when the real shooting starts, because exercise ground rules and assumptions have this nasty habit of being meaningless to the behavior of one’s enemies.
Ukrainians operate a more dispersed command and control system. This means that senior leadership provides broad guidance and logistical assistance and makes decisions about when and how to deploy reserves. Field decisions are made by the Ukrainian military as it is with other professional militaries like the US or NATO. They do this by allowing field commanders to distribute responsibility among the ranks which includes generals, colonels and captains, lieutenants and sergeants.
These two types of command structures can often be combined to create a distributed command unit that is more capable than the top-down. The top-down command one usually tries plans that fail or succeed, makes significant changes to the staff, then tries again. This is what we are seeing in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have their military capabilities and logistical limits. Russians understand this. Putin has mastered the art of beating ex-Soviet republican populations to death.
The Russian Horde must be kept at bay
Over the last week it has been fascinating to see Western analysts contemplate what the US or the West could do. There has been a lot of discussion about the supply of fighter planes to Ukraine. The US is the main naysayer against the transfer, while the Western countries have already offered their fighter aircraft. Two reasons are why I support the US’s hesitancy.
First, augmenting Ukraine’s air force with a few planes right this minute is a token gesture. This has very little leverage. It may create contested airspace over the skies of Ukraine temporarily, but the Russian air force far outnumbers Ukraine’s, and attrition will eat this valuable resource all too soon.
It’s not a substitute for implementing a real “no fly” zone over Ukrainian airspace. This type of operation will require the best fighters of all breed that are capable of clearing the air and the command-and control systems. That’s also an escalation step that the US is also hesitant to take.
Another reason behind this hesitation is even more concerning. US fears that Vladimir Putin, an unstable man who can press the mushroom button, and that his rhetoric will escalate to nuclear weapon use is real. These are speculations. I’ve heard everything from assertions that Putin is a genius who knows exactly how to rattle and neuter Joe Biden in a game of nuclear brinkmanship, to rumors that the Russian leader is suffering a condition which may have affected his ability to think rationally. It is unknown what reality might be. It is clear that the US favors caution. For now, the Kremlin’s inner leadership is closed lipped, marching in lock step, and remaining intensely loyal to the Russian strongman.
As to the fighter aircraft, there is an argument that says it’s better to position these aircraft as a strategic reserve that can be brought to bear when Ukraine’s forces find an opportunity to counterattack and break through against the Russian army on the ground. This is where transferring the aircraft will give you leverage beyond their number. That’s what you do with reserves. However, the optics are not good.
Analysts have suggested other ways that Ukraine might be able to help stop Russia’s war machine. The importance of supplying Ukraine arms and other equipment to engage Russian rear regions and logistic supply lines increases. This is also known as Follow on Forces Attack (FOFA) and it is an important Russian weakness.
Another line of thought in the analysts community seems to be worth considering is weapons that increase the Russian navy’s ability to risk. These systems can also threaten the success or naval bombardment.
This adds an additional dimension to the issue by bringing these systems to Ukraine after Russia declared Western supplies legitimate military targets. The big question for the West that I’d ask is, are supplies sitting in Poland, or Germany, or in the US, legitimate military targets in Mr. Putin’s mind? Are Polish Air Force Mig-29’s that have been offered but not transferred still in that NATO country’s military considered legitimate targets. Are we going to be hit? Are we going to shoot him back? Is Article 5 invoked? Do you think Mr. Putin would care? Does he want to trigger it the way he’s asked Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to supply forces? Another week. New worry beads.
Back Channels
To counter the US’s increasing pressure on Russia, a backchanneling process must be initiated. It should focus on Kremlin insiders, ordinary Russians and CSTO nations. The Western message needs to be that we are ready and willing to welcome them back into the global community of nations, if they sort out their leadership’s misguided agenda. This is vital, particularly so with Putin’s pattern of ramping up the pressure that will eventually reach open war between East and West as the only conclusion that might satisfy his thirst. It is important that we explore all avenues to get this message across.
But there’s a warning here. It must be true. The Russians will know if our promises are true and they can verify it. Putin will endeavor to block any overtures we make. He created his own trap to the point that he can’t afford to lose or compromise anymore.
After the conflict is finished and the Russian government returns to good standing, exit narratives are needed. Many studies are being done right now on how to stop Russia. The stick is what we are referring to. There are not many concrete ways that the West plans to use a carrot. This narrative must begin to penetrate the walls of intimidation Mr. Putin has created within his entire circle of influence.
The truth is that it’s already clear to all who are being asked to support Mr. Putin’s invasion that their dreams of a better future will be ending in a repeat of the mid-90’s economic disaster that brought him to power. It is crucial that the whole world convinces them to stop this reversion.
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