Republicans have secured total victory in the redistricting battles that promise to play a major role in November’s mid-terms. This is a significant turnaround in the past few months.
If you go back to February and March, what you’ll find is lots of joyous liberals celebrating what they felt was total domination over Republicans in regards to redistricting. They applauded Republican maps that had been struck down and celebrated gerrymanders like those in New York or Illinois. In their minds, they had out-hustled their opposition and set up an advantage going into November’s mid-terms.
This proved to be a highly premature conclusion. Numerous outlets are now crunching numbers to determine the final national tally. This is a clear sign that Republicans have gained ground, despite a number of ridiculous court rulings.
We’re down to two possible outcomes of 2022 redistricting: a partisan wash or a modest GOP gain, depending on the final ruling on Dems’ NY congressional map.
Predictions made a while back about a less biased House map are now premature.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) April 27, 2022
Dave Wasserman works for Cook Political Report and describes himself as “non-partisan,” but if you follow him, you know he’s anything but. If he’s making this admission, you can bet it’s happening with much loathing. I do love the way he says things could be a “partisan wash” while at the same time lamenting that things won’t be “much less skewed.” Are things only less skewed when Democrats gain an advantage?
But I digress, this is a complete turnaround from where things were earlier in the year, and it’s the result of one thing: Republicans actually deciding to fight.
It’s amazing what you can accomplish when you don’t roll over the way the establishment attempted to do in Florida and Missouri. The governor. Ron DeSantis’s state game was nothing short of a masterwork in political gamesmanship. After months of arguing with his party members, many of whom publicly criticized DeSantis, he finally went to court to set the foundations and made his enemies accept his wishes. He fought for a compact, fair map of Florida, in spite of the fact that there was no governor. That’s what winning looks like.
Republicans also stiffened their spines against challenges in Alabama and Ohio, winning both fights when they weren’t expected to. New York, which was the focus of all the intelligence insisted that Democrats had triumphed, is now the only thing left. But in a surprise ruling, the state’s Supreme Court struck down the Democrat gerrymander because it obviously violated the state’s fair map provisions.
Even if they lose that fight, the GOP will still win or come out on top. Both of these outcomes, given how things were before, are huge victories. Further, North Carolina’s “fair” map, which was forced by a liberal judge, will almost certainly be struck down in 2023, which means Republicans will likely gain more ground before the 2024 election.
There’s a lot of work left to be done regarding the GOP, but what’s clear is that things are changing. A new generation of leaders is standing up to fight fire with fire, where folding used to be the norm. It’s good to see, and it’s going to pay dividends in the fall.
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