Red Wave Will Dash Dems’ Dreams for Midterms – Opinion

Some left-leaning activists have promoted a NY Times poll suggesting that Democrats could have a chance at winning the midterm elections. The NY Times poll allegedly found that Democrats had a 1 percent preference edge over Republicans (41% to 40% with registered voters) Some claimed that this indicated that the Democrats were moving to power. But even that wasn’t quite as accurate as it could be, since the likely voter count showed a preference of one point for the Republicans, according to my colleague Streiff.

The media’s focus? The registered voter count, when it’s the likely voter count that is the more accurate take generally. Liberal media wanted to cheer on the Democrats, and so they did what they could.

The Fox poll that has been conducted on this subject shows just how absurd it is. Fox Poll shows the Republicans leading the Democrats by 3 points. It is now the 7th consecutive Fox poll to show the Republicans leading Democrats in Congressional predictions. Fox News model suggests that this advantage could translate into a GOP win and a gain in 23 seats.

“A 20-plus seat gain would be massive for the Republicans in an era where bipartisan gerrymandering has drastically reduced the number of competitive seats,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “It would be tantamount to the 1994 midterms when Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America helped the GOP roll up a 54-seat gain.” Shaw conducts the Fox News survey with Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson.

The generic ballot tends to overstate the Democrats’ chances of winning individual House races because it comes from a survey of registered voters across the country, and not from a series of individual Congressional district surveys. To win actual seats, Democrats will need to have a greater number of generic ballots because more districts were drawn as being overwhelmingly Democratic than they are overwhelmingly Republican.

The poll also indicates that Americans disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing on virtually every issue by big numbers: 73 percent disapprove on inflation, 68 percent on the economy, 61 percent on immigration, 59 percent on guns, 57 percent on energy policy, and 55 percent on handling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The majority (52%) thinks the economy will worsen next year. Intermittent surveys dating back to 1998 show that this marks the first time over half feel the economy will get worse within the next year.

Meanwhile, 52% have changed their summer travel plans because of gas prices, 70% have had to cut back on other spending to afford necessities, and 75% say inflation has caused them financial hardship — up from 67% in December.

Two figures are likely to doom the Democrats’ chances in the midterms if the numbers hold: 93 percent are extremely worried about rising prices and 70 percent of independents disapprove of the job that Biden is doing–and that is going to be a killer when it comes to the midterms if that holds.

What’s the zinger for Joe Biden?” This poll also backs up other polls that most voters don’t want Joe Biden to run again, with only 27 percent in favor and 71 percent against. This poll is expected to cause Joe Biden trouble again when he asks about it.