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Putin’s War, Week 14. Advanced Artillery, a Missing General, and a Grind With No Visible End – Opinion

By Pluralist / June 2, 2022

It has been a couple of weeks since I last updated the combat operations and political machinations of Putin’s War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As we’re now 98 days into the 4-blitzkrieg assault to fell the Zelensky government, let’s review the first 90 days of Putin’s War.

The combat theatre continues to receive foreign weaponry. With its new 155mm ammunition, the US M-777 tow howitzer is making a strong impression. French-built CAESAR selfpropelled 155mm HOWitzer, which is self-propelled by its own propellant, has also been deployed. US trainers in Germany have taught hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers how to use the M-777 system. France provides training for CAESAR teams in France.

This is the first photo of equipment that was lost and donated to Ukraine. The equivalent Australian Bushmaster MRAP version in Donbas is this.

It is noteworthy that Russia has not been able to stop the flow of Western weaponry and they have attempted to strike any ground or air resupply attempt into Ukraine.

USA has agreed to supply Ukraine an indeterminate amount of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

HIMARS not only outranges any other artillery system in use in Putin’s War, it is a quantum leap in technology.

An equivalent Russian rocket launcher needs a fire direction centre, can be reloaded manually, and fires approximately one volley an hour. HIMARS can locate and calculate its own firing options to target engagement. It takes approximately five minutes to replace the entire rocket pod. For reasons I can’t fathom, a lot of pro-Putin accounts claim that Russian systems are superior. They aren’t. They don’t. It is obvious why they do this; I also know that the people who read them are not interested in entertainment.

Denmark will give Ukraine Harpoon antiship missiles. The video contains some of the most horrible music I have ever heard. It isn’t my fault.

Alexander Dvornikov is gone, the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chosen general to lead the entire conflict.

There has not been a replacement. This does however align with the information we received in May regarding Putin and Valery Gerasimov (Russian General Staff chief), who personally ran the war.

Henry Kissinger went public suggesting that Ukraine would give Russia whatever it wanted, following his 1975 Vietnam strategy. I think the “Ukraine needs to settle for whatever crumbs Russia wants to dole out” train has left the station, but, as I’ll discuss below, it could become an issue in the next few months.

A hint of political realignment is evident in NATO with Eastern Europe moving away from France and Germany for leadership.

Overview of Combat Operations

Weeks ago, I identified the critical theaters of operations for the war as I see them, see Ukraine’s Future Depends on These Three Fights That Russia Must Win. The razing Mariupol, one of the must-win battles, has been completed. As of today, this is what the situation looks like. The map is for representational purposes only, as I’m not necessarily in agreement with the analysis (I think using “cauldron” as a military term makes you sound like a poseur, but whatever). Although there’s some fighting going on between Kharkiv (Russian border), I believe my original analysis is still valid. Russia needs to win at least two of the fights that it is fighting in order to have a chance at winning Ukraine.

 

Credit: Critical Threats on Twitter.

Kharkiv

Kharkiv has relieved some pressure from the Donbas theatre. Russia has pulled troops from the developing pincer attack based in Izyum (this is, you recall, the location of the headquarters that the Ukrainians shelled that may have wounded General Gerasimov) to react to the Ukrainian advance (Mysterious Ammunition Dump Explosion Rocks Russia and Did Ukraine Nearly Kill Russia’s Top Military Officer?). I don’t see this theater developing as a significant effort for Ukraine, but the Russians can’t ignore what is happening there. Barring the unforeseen, the Russians will be forced back upon their Vovchansk-Kupiansk-Izyum line of communication. HIMARS will make it impossible to maintain this line of communication.

Credit: Critical Threats on Twitter.

Kherson

The Kherson had been relatively quiet at the time of the last update. In reality, even late this weekend, both the Russians and Ukrainians had been focusing on building multiple defensive lines while they exchanged artillery firing. On Sunday the Ukrainians began a modest offensive north from Kherson. Russian forces in the area were stretched to support troops in Donbas’ main Russian military effort. Despite the Russians’ damage to the bridge, the Ukrainians forced Davydiv Brid to cross the river.

Credit: Critical Threats on Twitter.

My vision is that Nova Kakhovka will be the main force behind Davydiv Brid’s efforts. Fighting north of Davydiv Brid is likely to freeze Russian reinforcements and increase pressure on Kherson. The main effort at Davydiv Brid is crucial for two reasons. With their river crossing, they are astride one the most important supply routes for Russian forces north and south of the Kherson Nova Kakhovka line. Nova Kakhovka will be the first to go. Everything north of Kherson-Nova Kakhovka will lose fuel and ammunition if it falls. Davydiv Brid, Nova Kakhovka and the highway are connected. While Ukraine has the tactical flexibility of well-equipped Western armies but a very Soviet logistic tail, it is not without its problems. This major road will be the Main Supply Route, (MSR), for the Ukrainian offensive.

Russia appears to have reduced this theatre of operations to its bare bones in order to supply troops to Donbas, as I mentioned above. If Ukraine’s advance is to gain momentum, the commander of Russia’s army in Ukraine will face difficult decisions about whether to strengthen Kherson or push on in Donbas.

Donbas

Russia achieved success in Donbas in the past 2 weeks. But, this was in a very Russian way. It seems that they have given up on the use of armored vehicles to attack the Ukrainian positions and are now advancing by foot. This is my opinion.

Credit: British Defense MinistryFollow us on Twitter.

It is important to remember these things. The Russian advances have been slow but steady. They are not more than one kilometer per day. The advances were usually closer to 500 metres. It was brutal.

Russians do not seek to create a new paradigm in warfare; instead, they fight for control over Luhansk Oblast. The area’s rivers, many of which run north-south like the highways, made a breakthrough impossible, something I pointed out early on in this offensive. To move east, there are multiple rivers crossings. It also requires construction of an east/west railroad line or highway to support the forces along that axis. Russia must also have the logistics capability that Russia simply doesn’t possess.

Credit: Critical Threats on Twitter.

Prognosis

Everything being equal, Ukraine has my opinion the greatest advantage. The West believes Russia should be visible defeated. This belief is supported by donations of equipment and money. But things aren’t always equal.

Russia seems to be rapidly changing its war goals, according to me. In February, Putin vowed to liberate Ukraine from the rule of “nazis and drug addicts,”  disband the Ukrainian armed forces, force the recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and the annexation of Crimea by Kiev, and prevent Ukraine from joining a military alliance. In April, those goals were expanded to seizing Ukraine’s coastal areas and linking up with the Russian puppet state in Transnistria (Putin Decides to Widen the War With Ukraine to Achieve His Objectives). All of this is unlikely to be realized. What Putin might do, however, is seize the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk, conduct a fake referendum to annex occupied portions of Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Russia Is Creating Facts on the Ground to Support Annexing Eastern Ukraine), declare “mission accomplished” and play the victim if Ukraine continues the war. At that time, Henry Kissinger’s desire to give away other people’s countries and freedom may have more clout.

As time passes, it will be down to which side wants to win. According to conservative estimates, around 30,000 Russians have died. It would also mean an additional 50-60,000. The Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted that the army is losing around 100 soldiers each day.

It was a terrible act of waste.

More stories are being told about the conscripted men in Luhansk or Donetsk who refused to fight on their own territory.

Russia will not mobilize its entire population or declare conscription. Instead, it will scrape the bottom of its manpower bucket to keep the country from going overboard. Russia has no reserve components like the Reserve or National Guard. They have a reserve for anyone who has ever served. Now they’re going to the pool.

Ukrainian labour force is the missing link. Ukraine implemented universal conscription early in wartime. We’ve seen some video of new units in training. If you’re concerned about your soldiers, it isn’t an easy task. It was a learning experience to raise a company completely from scratch. Although we received 125 soldiers after 12 weeks’ basic and infantry training it took four months for us to be ready for deployment. These new units will not be deployed until Ukraine has had time to train them. We are likely a month away before we see new Ukrainian battalions enter the fray. Low morale has been reported in some Ukrainian units, but these reports are sporadic. I don’t have doubts about that. It is now up to them whether they will stay in the country and protect it despite all of these terrible conditions.

Barring anything unexpected, I expect the Russian Donbas offensive to run out of steam within the next week. We can predict, too, that Ukraine will give the task of retaking the Donbas territories to the Russians a lesser priority than liberating Kherson and Mariupol from Russian occupation. As Putin is unlikely to claim the territory, this strategic imperative must be met by Ukraine’s government. Russia’s best hope is to return home if the West continues its current level of aid. status quo ante.

 

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Pluralist

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