Natural Gas Prices Surge in Europe as Russia Turns Up The Heat – Opinion

In the two most recent weeks, natural gas prices in Europe have nearly doubled. This indicates that Russia is trying to put pressure upon Europe, NATO and Ukraine.

Taken together with a few other factors — that Russian troops are amassing on the Ukrainian border, hints at “Ukrainian provocation” from within Russian media sources, and whispers of next week’s impending talks between the US and Russia — all signs point to Russia setting up a soft coup in Ukraine.

As this graph indicates, the increased cost of Russian natural gas is not caused by a typical winter spike in energy consumption or demand.

Actually, the spike exceeds multiple times the fluctuations in US gas prices. This price rise is accompanied by a decrease in European natural gas supplies and a pullback of European resources towards Russia. This could prove to be catastrophic for both Central and Eastern European countries who rely on Russia more than 75% to their natural gas supplies, as well NATO members like Germany, if it continues.

European countries have a % dependence on Russian natural gas and a % demand for it. (Credit: Europeangashub.com)The latter — with their significant reduction in independent production, coal utilization, and its turn away from nuclear power — have the highest demand for natural gas from Russia, though it accounts for only around half of their imports. The pressure is mounting on European countries, and their allies this side of the Atlantic, to acquiesce in a potential Russian move to turn Ukraine once again towards Moscow, be it by force or by applications of “soft power” and “direct measures.”

Using their natural gas pipelines and incredible leverages on supply into Europe has been a defining card in Russia’s tactics of international political pressure, and almost always, it has been successful. Russia and Ukraine disagreed over an estimated $1.5Billion debt in 2007. However, Ukraine succumbed to Russia’s demands, paying large amounts of the requested sum. This same argument was brought up in 2009. Russia then cut off supply. The situation affected Ukraine as well as Hungary, Czech Republic and other European countries. It was only resolved when the IMF/World Bank loaned $1.7 billion to Ukraine to pay its debts. Russia is demanding further payments from Ukraine, which has been bankrupted by their price rise after annexing Crimea. The same pattern repeats: Russia cuts off the gas, Ukraine loses all support and is forced to acquiesce, along with a silent Europe, to the Kremlin’s demands. The cycle of this has happened multiple times over the last two decades.

What is clear is that Russia is once again wielding its supply of natural gas as a political tool – and it stands to reason that this is likely to do with Ukraine. It is not clear how Russia will use the pressure to its benefit. They might want to work with NATO or the US in order to avoid the US’s aggressive buildup of military forces along their border. However, they could also be willing to accept the additional pressure Belarus is exerting on them while taking control and retaking Ukraine forcefully in a fashion reminiscent to Crimea. Russia might opt against this course, however: military action is harder to ignore in the court of world opinion, it’s time-consuming, resource-intensive, and likely to result in instability that might prove hard to control for Russia.

Russia may use soft power to accomplish its main objectives. Russia’s intention has never been to acquire Ukraine. Russia’s most pressing concern is maintaining a buffer zone that protects its Eastern borders from Western-leaning NATO countries, like Germany. If Ukraine were to join NATO – something the Ukrainian government has been desperate to push – it would present a grave threat to Russia. Cut gas supplies, isolation of Ukraine from the West and the continued presence of conflicts at the border are all ways to undermine the Orange Revolution which introduced democracy in Ukraine. This is a way to undermine the current Zelensky government, and place internal political pressure on Ukrainians to trust a more pro-Russian aligned party, such as Ukraina Nash Dim or Na Zhisn’ (the pro-Russian opposition parties), with the country’s leadership. With the weakness of other democratic nations and their failure to support their allies outside of Ukraine – the West’s impotence in the face of China taking Hong Kong, or the US’s inability to protect Afghanistan from the Taliban – as well as in the Ukrainian government, it might now not take much for the Ukrainian people to consider anyone who trusts the West as fools, including their own elected officials.

With a US administration that has been unable to assert power against Putin and Germany’s abandonment of nuclear power, the West’s reliance on Russia has been increasing. Russia has set itself up for its proven strategy of getting what it wants. And the West is likely to give in once again – arguing that if that meant the end to 16 years of democracy in Ukraine, then so be it.