We haven’t even had the 2022 election yet and talk of 2024 is already heating up. Donald Trump continues to be the leader of Republican conversation, however Ron DeSantis has been almost as discussed as a possible challenger.
This governor has been a fighter and a champion of the state for two years. His knack for ridiculing the liberal press has seen him rise to prominence. Those are skills that GOP voters love, and They’ve earned DeSantis high marks nationally from the Republican base. That he’s also become theHis star has only risen further as a leader in culture wars.
What has happened to him? On Wednesday’s first New Hampshire primary poll, DeSantis led Donald Trump by a wide margin and beat Joe Biden in general election matchup. The same poll shows Trump losing seven points to Biden.
President (New Hampshire).
DeSantis (R) 39%
Trump Sr.
Pence (R), 9%
Haley (R), 6%
Cruz (R) 1%
Noem (R), 1%
Pompeo (R), 1%University of New Hampshire, B-
318 LVArf! What can I do?
Poll #156901 #ElectionTwitter
— Stella (@stella2020woof) June 22, 2022
Over the past year, DeSantis has seen his popularity and support explode. It seems that liberal media is still not able to stop elevating those Republicans they don’t like. pic.twitter.com/f3V6kyDemo
— Yesh Ginsburg (@yesh222) June 22, 2022
Now, before anyone gets too up in arms, understand it’s June 2022. These polls do not predict the future. These polls can only show trends or shifts in current environments. It is impossible to know if these results will hold up until 2024 when the primaries begin. In other words, whether you are more in the Trump camp or the DeSantis camp regarding a hypothetical matchup, there’s no reason to feel threatened by these results.
However, the poll provides a valuable data point that is worth discussing. If DeSantis does go on to win New Hampshire, the first primary, he’s almost certainly going to win Iowa, which has a caucus system that doesn’t favor Trump. All bets are off for the second stretch if DeSantis is victorious in the primary elections. Because momentum and inevitability are the most important factors in any presidential primary fight (as Trump demonstrated in 2016), prior national polling won’t matter. That’s not to say DeSantis would have things wrapped up, but he’d be in the driver’s seat.
With that said, I’ve heard the arguments that DeSantis won’t run if Trump does. Let’s just say I don’t buy them one bit. Florida Governor is out by 2026. He has raised a lot of money, far more than he needed to reelect himself as governor. GOP donors are lining up behind him already, and there’s just no way he’s going to wait around until 2028. Further, as past cycles have shown, there’s no risk in coming in second place in a primary. It is often the case that it sets the person up to be the first-placer the next time around.
I now have a last question. How long will Trump continue to hold on to his flame? He’s already had his personal pollster release a survey showing Charlie Crist, the likely Democrat nominee for Florida governor, beating Ron DeSantis by one point. This result was so dissimilar to other polls that it seemed laughable. It feels like tension is growing.
Still, I hope both men can keep from going weapons hot until it’s actually time to have a primary fight. It would be an enormous mistake to start the fireworks too soon. Lastly, when things do finally touch off, I hope Republican voters understand there’s no reason to destroy each other in the process. An open race is a good thing for the GOP’s eventual nominee. You can let the race play out, and you will root for the winner. It is far better than the carcass of Joe Biden.
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