We’re still in that post-holiday period where members of Congress have to fish or cut bait, looking at the landscape and making those decisions as to whether they’re going to run again. If you’re a Democrat, that landscape can’t look good right now, with Joe Biden’s approval in the toilet, inflation, and COVID running rampant with Americans rightly blaming Democrats. A Gallup poll has shown a significant shift in favor of Republicans among party preferences.
However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.
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Since 1991, the GOP held a maximum of a five point advantage over its opponents in only four quarters. After gaining control of the House of Representatives in the 1950s, the Republicans had a 5-point lead in party identification/leaning for the last time in 1995. Only the quarter ending in 1991 saw a bigger advantage for Republicans, following the U.S. victory at the Persian Gulf War under the leadership of then-President George H.W. Bush.
It may be part of the reason for the surprise wins in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere in the country that appeared to have hit November.
If you’re looking at the tea leaves, you’re not liking your chances if you’re a Democrat, particularly if you have to defend your seat in a tough district. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D.CO), stated when we last spoke that it was now time to move on, and that he would explore new opportunities. He was the 26th Democrat who left.
Now, Rep. Jim Langevin, D-RI, and Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-CA, are joining the pack. This makes them the 28th and 27th Democrat to be packing up, retiring, or looking for other office opportunities. On Tuesday, both announced that they were retiring.
Washington Examiner
“I will keep working for the people of my district throughout the remainder of my term and look forward to new opportunities to continue to serve,” McNerney, 70, said in a tweet.
McNerney represents California in Congress from 2007 to 2013, in the 9th district since 2013, and the 11th before.
Langevin (57) wrote an op-ed in Providence Journal explaining his decision.
“I have not come to this decision lightly, but it is time for me to chart a new course, which will allow me to stay closer to home and spend more time with my family and friends. And while I don’t know what’s next for me just yet, whatever I do will always be in service of Rhode Island,” he said.
Democrats begin in a poor position by being the party that holds the White House. That is often a handicap in the midterms. This situation becomes worse when people retire or leave to enter the midterms. The Democrats won 41 House seats when they flipped it in 2018. In contrast to the 34 Republicans who had people leaving or looking for other jobs, the Democrats gained 41. So that’s a very bad sign of what looks like a massive red wave coming.
At the moment, Democrats have an extremely slim lead in House seats. To win the majority, Republicans will need five more seats. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is about to be served her walking papers for her Speaker position and I’m looking forward to sending her packing.
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