Dooming and Glooming Over the Latest Election Results – Opinion

Tuesday’s election results were certainly interesting and in many ways, they were a tale of two states. If you have only been following the New York special elections, it is likely that you believe that the red wave has diminished and that Democrats will defy the history of the mid-terms. If you were to focus your attention on Florida, however, the GOP’s prospects are excellent.

You probably have both. Election analysts are predicting doom for Republicans in November if you keep tabs. Do you agree? That’s the big question. Come with me.

New York’s special election for NY-19, currently held by a Democrat and winning by 11 points in 2020 is grabbing headlines. It featured a “good” Republican named Marcus Molinaro who was supposed to be a sure winner. Molinaro, who was well-respected and hardworking, was the type of candidate GOP voters need to support if they are going to be able win future elections. Especially in rural areas, Republicans failed to turn out for Molinaro.

This will become the focus of all the blame-shifting. Did Molinaro not provide enough excitement for voters? Was there another factor? I think it’s probably a little bit of both, and I’m going to point out something that I’m not seeing others mention. This is a special election, which will be redone in just over two months. Is it possible to get excited for the vote knowing that this election is essentially meaningless? Even if your state has a strong blue primary (e.g. There are other motivations that could motivate you to vote. Lee Zeldin isn’t going to come within a dozen points of beating Kathy Houchel in November.

Are you making excuses for me? So I think I am. I established my deal over blue-state special elections with low turnout weeks ago. But isn’t the other side doing the same thing by choosing to ignore results that go against their narrative?

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— Corey A. DeAngelis (@DeAngelisCorey) August 24, 2022

I find it remarkable that GOP voters turned out in large numbers in Florida to elect dozens of conservatives to formerly liberal school district seats. It is also important to note that the overall turnout of Republicans was higher than anticipated, exceeding 2018 by several point. Governor. Ron DeSantis is a powerful force, which will lead to many wins in November to offset losses elsewhere like New York.

For the preliminary two-party vote in 2018, I’m able to compare it with 2018:

2018: 3141K voted (1519K Dem, 1622K Rep)
2022: 3241K voted (1524K Dem, 1717K Rep)
The overall turnout was +3% Representatives +6%, Dems +0%

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) August 24, 2022

Let’s see, all of these contradictions have led to conflicting conclusions. It means that the state is so polarized. You simply aren’t going to get Republican victories in deep blue states in close elections anymore. Almost all these “bellwether” special elections have happened in California, New York, and Minnesota. These states share one thing in common. Massive emigration from red states. Republican voters are moving away, but those who remain will continue to enjoy the status quo.

Rural New York will not have the same enthusiasm as rural Ohio. This means that red states will become redder, and blue states more blue. This may be good news for Republicans, considering how Senate seats and House districts are distributed across the country.

If they treat things as a given, however, this is still possible for the GOP to blow the vote in November. As we enter the campaign season in September/October, the GOP must replicate the high turnout Republicans showed during these primaries. Mitch McConnell focusing on candidate quality and not the candidates is a good way to lose the mid-terms.

To put it another way, you should ignore all the talk and just get out there to vote. Anyone can find a bellwether that fits their narrative if they look hard enough, but at the end of the day, it’s about who shows up at the polls when the real bullets start flying. As the last stretch nears, Republicans need to intensify their efforts.