Biden Flails as Putin Castles the Ukraine Chessboard – Opinion

At 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time, President Biden provided an assessment of Russia-Ukraine’s crisis to the nation from the White House.

Biden has chosen to continue to pursue diplomatic discussions as the practical next step, indicating that the U.S. is now prepared to discuss both US/NATO security concerns AND Russia’s security concerns on the table.

This is a huge win for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government has been complaining that the U.S. has been working with its allies to ignore Moscow’s concerns about Ukraine becoming the next domino in NATO’s expansion eastward into the Russian sphere of influence.

However, it remains to see if Biden will be open to a discussion. Although the U.S. president identified the areas he was willing to discuss, his focus remained on the non-starter topics of arms control and territorial integrity as well strategic stability. But, that’s not what Russia has been asking for. Indeed, Biden made a special mention that the U.S. is not prepared to sacrifice basic principles of self-determination, which is code for rejecting Russia’s principal concern that Ukraine is not allowed to join the NATO alliance. It is clear that the US only gave lip service and did not listen, but continued talking.

Biden made it clear that he was not willing to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine later in his speech. USA cannot militarily resist an invasion by Russia of Ukraine. Biden stated that he “will not send US troops to defend Ukraine.” The limit is giving them equipment and advice. US troops will stay behind the borders of NATO nations, where they can posture safely within the tenets of NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense parameters.

Biden also communicated that the U.S. paper tiger response, should the Russians decide to invade, will be “condemnation.”  Yeah, we’ll put about it and implement sanctions after Ukrainians are carrying Russian passports again. That’s it. That’s all we got. That’s scary.

Ukraine now stands on its feet, an unreliable toy for diplomats. That’s exactly what Russia has always wanted. It’s all happening on time, right before last week’s Tuesday deadline.

In practicality, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin negated the United States’ Chicken Little warning that an invasion of Ukraine was imminent by announcing that some of the military units on exercises in Russia and Belarus will be returning to their permanent bases. Biden’s retort to this in his statement was only to say that this “has not been verified”; something that I’m not so sure is true if, as one would suspect, every U.S. surveillance asset is looking down on the region with the clarity of reading text, just as you are reading right now.

I cannot help but ask why the U.S. didn’t seem to anticipate this move. I mean there are certainly enough analysts at the Pentagon trained in “red side” scenario gaming to have looked such an obvious ploy. I’ve taught classes in asymmetric warfare. This was an obvious “rule out” test in the most basic tabletop exercise.

Putin did this before with military exercises. The last time was in April 2021, in what U.S. analysts called the “Spring Scare.” The Biden administration was preoccupied with Afghanistan at the time, so not much attention was made of it. But the ramp up of Russia’s winter exercises was interpreted differently by the D.C. In the wake of the US’s disastrous withdrawal, Afghanistan was returned to the Taliban it had been fighting to displace 20 years earlier.

This time, somehow the U.S. policy community convinced the White House to sound an “all call” alarm that Ukraine was the next domino about to fall. This only served to play into Putin’s hands to get him the noticeably clear diplomatic breakthrough that Biden announced is now the next operative step for this crisis.

The bidding process. Biden and Putin spoke on Saturday, 12 February.^ThWhere Mr. Biden moved the U.S. negotiation position from being concerned to confrontational, and threatened severe consequences for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian leader didn’t blink.

On Saturday’s phone conversation, I learned that none of the US intelligence and military personnel believed Russia intended to invade Ukraine. Because he was aware that the rhetoric was benign, it created a safe place for Biden. All of it was a spectacle for the media.

I’ve been convinced that the die has been cast for some time to let go of Ukraine without a shot being fired. Putin will block Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Joe Biden will take care of this outcome.

Putin played his next chess move on Sunday. This created an opening for the West’s willingness to do what he asks by initiating a unilateral withdrawal from troop posturing.

On Monday, the Kremlin initiated the window breaking by saying they are open to diplomatic discussions about Russia’s security concerns.

This will be met with relief in Western Europe. They, like Ukraine, can now rest assured that everything is fine.

And no one will believe Biden that his, or any U.S. leadership, was any more than a pawn in Putin’s plans.