Democrats currently feel a lot better, at the least in their own heads. On Sunday, the Senate passed the Manchin-led reconciliation deal, blowing hundreds of billions of dollars on “climate change” provisions, including subsidies for well-off people to buy electric cars and solar panels. Another part of the bill included a substantial tax hike for the middle-class.
As to it being called the “Inflation Reduction Act,” even Bernie Sanders admits that’s hogwash. Democrats celebrated, calling it a significant accomplishment that would help them win the midterms. Couple that with a recent uptick in the generic ballot for Joe Biden’s party, and you can see why members of the left are practically ecstatic at how the last week has gone. They are certain they can defy history.
As I recently explained, much of the election-bro Twitter pushes is just a mirage. The August polling results are notoriously inexact compared with the final election results. Democrats also have a history of having mid-summer bumps. For example, in 2014, Republicans didn’t take the lead on the generic ballot until October. They won the mid-term elections by five more points.
The numbers concerning Senate polling for 2018-2025 were also part of my article. They showed that, in fourteen out fifteen tossup races, the Republican vote was under-estimated, and in some cases, by a significant amount.
Here’s another data point to chew on along those lines.
On August 7, Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Averages (RCP)
2014: Dems +1.6
2014 Actual Results: GOP +5.72020 Dems +8.8
Actual result: Dems +3.12022: The GOP is +0.1
In EARLY polling, Pollsters overestimated Democratic Support in 2014. This was by 7.3 and 5.7 points respectively.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2022
One thing you should note is that Republicans technically still lead the general ballot polling aggregate, even with all of the celebration. A further problem is that Democrats have only three registered voter surveys, which, given the likely voter screen, will most certainly support the GOP. It is evident that polling does not accurately reflect Republican support in the midterm elections. There is no reason to believe that issue is fixed until the pollsters prove it with some accurate results, and we won’t have that data until after election day.
There are also the basics to be aware of. Inflation is at an all-time high and Democrats are in a difficult environment. We also have history to consider, which tells us that a first-term president’s party almost always gets killed in the mid-terms. George W. Bush is the exception. However, he had a unique ride after 9/11. Biden’s situation is different.
I am now able to talk about enthusiasm and turnout. It is a good indicator of how tightly a party holds up for the mid-terms. All indications point to a green wave.
NEW JERSEY:
2020 Pres. election: Biden (D) +15.9
2021 Gov. 2021 Gov.VIRGINIA
2020 Pres. election: Biden (D) +10
2021 Gov. election: Youngkin (R) +1.9PRIMARY TURNOUT
Democrats +6 for 2018
2022: Republicans+6 (36 states)Average swing toward the GOP: +12.2%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2022
Contrary to the endless media polling, real data shows that Republicans will dominate this year’s turnout race. The generic ballot polling has less value, as many still use samples showing a Democrat advantage in turnout. There’s no evidence that will materialize in November, and the GOP is energized in a way it hasn’t been since 2020.
Democrats will defy every historical precedent and create one of the worst political environment in decades. I don’t think so. Yes, there’s a lot of hopium going around right now on the left, but it’s based on the idea that despite all available evidence, things will be “different” this time for “reasons.” Don’t bet on it.
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