Forth Worth’s West Side Cafe has amazing salsa and eggs. I had breakfast there this morning. Also, the chicken-fried steak is a great choice.
On the way, Mark Davis from Salem Media was on. Bill Sniffin was the Wyoming columnist. He also served as publisher emeritus at Cowboy State Daily. You can grab your coffee and get your caffeine, but his prediction made me worry – that Cheney could win.
Columnists who are veterans @BillSniffin @cowboy_daily #WyomingBig poll lead: Don’t listen to them #HarrietHageman; #LizCheneyIt is still important to remember’s name and war chest. Her begging for Democrat cross-party votes will allow her a chance. But he predicts that Hageman will win. pic.twitter.com/VySrv9zOBn
— Mark Davis (@MarkDavis) August 16, 2022
Now we’ve all been looking at polls of Harriet Hageman beating up on Cheney by anywhere from 25 to 30 points, which would seem fairly decisive. But polls are just polls. The actual race is more likely to be closer. It is possible to imagine that they are not as close.
Sniffin does however consider a number of factors. For example, Wyoming is low-voter state. Also, this primary is very important, and so a small percentage of eligible voters may be able to influence the outcome. You can’t forget the millions of dollars and ads Cheney has put into Wyoming. But he’s highlighting these four factors.
1) There is too much voter apathy among the traditional Republicans, who believe Hageman will win easily. Harriet’s overall vote total could be lower than expected among traditional Republican voters because of the time of year and the fact it is not a presidential election.
2) Cheney will retain a portion of her old voters. In 2018, 75.183 Republicans supported her, while 78.870 in 2020 voted for the candidate. Incumbency is going to be a major factor.
3) And of course, there are the so-called RINO’s. These are long-time registered “Republicans In Name Only” who are naturally moderate or who dislike former president Donald Trump. They’ll vote for Cheney during this proxy war between Trump and Cheney.
4) The largest number of voters who cross over from the Independent and Democrat ranks will vote for the Republican primaries. The number of cross-over voters from Democrat and Independent ranks will exceed 20,000. This is huge considering that the winner will only get about 60,000 votes.
He’s gone back and forth a bit on it and his final prediction was that Hageman was going to pull it out but it would be very close. It is worth noting that he had predicted Cheney’s departure, but this was also false.
I’m not from Wyoming, so I don’t have a local’s perspective on that prediction. But I’m not sure I believe there’s going to be that many crossover votes. It seems like quite a lot. And while the Democrats are certainly stoking the hate against Trump in the state, it’s still a state that has very few Democrats. Even though Cheney is spending a lot, Hageman continues to make rounds throughout the state, while Cheney is blaming the situation.
Then again, there’s a ton of anger at Liz Cheney among Republicans in Wyoming. That’s going to power a lot of them, more than in a normal primary in a midterm year. There are a lot of people who have been waiting with bated breath as we’ve noted in the past. CNN was unable to find Wyomingans at Frontier Days that would vote for Cheney. These people were open and honest about their political views, even though they aren’t always forthcoming with journalists.
Now, there’s no doubt if it’s close that we’ll be hearing what a comeback she had and they’ll spin that against Trump, without talking about the crossover vote.
So bottom line, we’ll see, but take nothing for granted. And if you know people in Wyoming, make sure they’re getting out and voting for Hageman. Let’s end this thing and start a recovery away from folks like Cheney and her ilk.