After the elections, there has been a major shift in the talking points of the Democratic Party. DobbsSupreme Court decision With Roe V. WadeDemocrats lost the key sacrament of political faith when the law regulating abortion was overturned.
It’s pretty clear that Democrats think the issue will be a motivator for voters in the November midterms, pointing to recent polling on the issue, and as Axios reports, it’s fast becoming the biggest plank in Democratic candidates’ platforms, even overtaking January 6 as a key issue for many candidates’ sites.
Axios got a first look at websites that Democrats’ House and Senate campaign arms launched Monday — less than 72 hours after the Supreme Court ruling — blasting GOP candidates’ abortion records.
- Democrats consider it a motivating issue for suburban women from swing House districts throughout the country.
- The House Democratic (DCCC) site is called “Extreme GOP.”
- The Senate Democrats’ (DSCC) site is: “This is the GOP on Abortion.”
S.E. Cupp of CNN declares that Cupp is the End RoeThis will signal the end to the GOP.
CNN’s @secuppDobbs says: “It is hard to envision the Republican Party remaining afloat in this situation.” Between anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ, book banning, anti-democracy….add all of the regressive [BS], garbage…” there’s no future generation. This is all GOP “shrinking, condensing.” pic.twitter.com/SjdwxwEC4S
— Tim Graham (@TimJGraham) June 27, 2022
I don’t know if it’s really that hard to imagine the Republican Party surviving this or if it’s the lack of imagination from someone who can only parrot the conventional wisdom from the DC media bubble, but there is ample data out there to suggest that the end of the Republican Party really isn’t on the horizon. Yesterday, the Associated Press announced that over one million people had switched parties. You can find more information hereThe Republican Party.
The Associated Press has analyzed voter records and found that more than 1,000,000 voters in 43 states have switched parties over the past year. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. From Denver, Atlanta to Pittsburgh and Cleveland to Cleveland to Cleveland to Atlanta to Pittsburgh to Cleveland in the past year, more suburban residents have switched to the GOP. In counties surrounding medium-sized cities, such as Harrisburg (PA), Raleigh, North Carolina, Augusta, Georgia, and Des Moines (Iowa), Republicans have also seen a rise in support.
While this information isn’t reaching Democrats as quickly as it used to, some Democrats are beginning to see signs they understand that the Democrats are still in trouble. Dobbs. POLITICO
One year ago, the possibility of a GOP Senate win in deep blue Washington was unimaginable. Now, Democrats spend millions of dollars advertising in many once-reliable Democratic strongholds including Washington as Republicans create national momentum and push to get new Senate seats.
There’s a similar panic in Colorado, where Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary has also drawn millions of dollars in Democratic-funded ads to boost a far-right candidate, a massive last-ditch campaign to keep a moderate Republican off the ballot this fall.
In the fallout from last week’s landmark decision, Nancy Pelosi is signaling in the strongest of terms that she will be pushing ahead on codifying Roe at the federal level while blasting the Supreme Court as “extremist.” This follows Chuck Schumer twice putting the most extreme abortion bill in history before the Senate, forcing Democrats to go on the record as supporting abortion up to the point of a child fully exiting the birth canal.
The issue of abortion is distracting voters from what they are actually focusing on. As much as suburban women care about abortion rights, they also have concerns about inflation and crime. These issues will affect the lives of their family and children, and in particular their children. This notion is supported by a CBS/YouGov poll.
YouGov poll: Which priority is most important to voters? The top priorities for voters are still economy and inflation. The Jan 6th is very low, and COVID really has fallen off the top. pic.twitter.com/PM9ldml2Nh
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) June 27, 2022
Inflation is ranked as number one by voters (82 percent consider it high priority), followed closely by the economy (80%), crime (68%), gun control (57%), as well as immigration (45%). Abortion (42 percent) is in sixth place there, but that’s a huge drop from the 80-82 percent high priority stance on inflation and the economy. The issues are more important to people than abortion.
The 42 percent of those who consider abortion a top-priority matter had already made their decision on how to vote. These passionate voters who only care about that one issue will be firmly Republican and Democratic, making it very unlikely they’ll change their votes before or after the election. Dobbs.
Also, keep in mind that the flash polling we’ve seen and the issue polling we’ll see for the next week or two will suffer from proximity bias. After two or three weeks, voters will shift back to the most immediate issues before them, and for many, abortion won’t be on the list, especially when they realize that, contrary to media reports and Democrats’ freakout, they still have access to birth control and even emergency contraceptives like Plan B, and that no one is actually pushing to outlaw abortion in the case of ectopic pregnancies and pregnancies where viability outside the womb is medically impossible.
Ultimately, it’s difficult to imagine that abortion overtakes economic issues and quality of life issues like crime. These issues will be used by suburban women to make their decision on how to vote in November.
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