His background includes film production and law. Now, he is the head of the Office to the President for Volodymyr Zilenskyy. As his boss makes the rounds speaking to the world to make the case to support Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Andriy Yermak fills the information gaps, giving interviews to news organizations.
In the twenty-four hour period, Mr. Yermak spent his time talking about a negotiated ending to the war. He’s given interviews to the Times of Israel, where he postulated that Israel could be the host nation for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been one of the world leaders who has managed to keep talking substantively with both Kyiv and Moscow. Like Zelenskyy, Mr. Yermak is also Jewish. He made it clear that Ukraine values Israel’s assistance, as well as the contribution of its intelligence services to the process.
Interview with Mr. Yermak, Friday March 25th at 1:45 pmTh with the Atlantic Council where he continued to spread the world of Ukraine’s negotiating position.
He started with a prepared speech in which he listed a list of West countries that he wanted to receive additional military assistance. John Herbst asked him about this and Yermak responded that the current situation for Ukraine is still very difficult. While Russia’s first invasion attempt is faltering, he does not pull punches that Ukraine realizes Russia is a much larger power. Yermak points out that Russia has the ability to build reserves and come back to make another attempt. His voice is filled with urgency, especially considering that Russia crossed the line of siegecraft attacking civilians.
Yermak stated that Ukraine requires more military supplies to win, and not just the transfer of Soviet-era storage stocks. He did state, however that Ukraine is confident they will win the war against Russians if NATO supplies them with these weapons.
It is about making Ukraine viable in direct negotiations with the Russians. In this context, Mr. Yermak says that the talks are moving beyond simply listening to demands from Russia to substantive issues. He describes Ukraine’s view of the moment as “cautiously optimistic.”
The fact that Ukraine has been realistic about the conflict is a sign that it can be overcome. The first sticky point is the definition of Ukraine’s position with the West. The trend seems to be towards neutral Ukraine, which can become an economic member in the European Union but is not an all-aligned member of NATO. You can think of Casablanca being the same size as Texas. This is something everyone should soon be able to afford.
The second sticky point is the withdrawal of Russian forces, where’s the line? As noted in Mr. Yermak’s interview with Axios, Russia says it wants Crimea and the breakaway territories. They want them back. This is an issue that’s been simmering since 2014 and it’s not going away soon. Both sides have conflicting desires at the moment. The person who facilitates the negotiations must figure out a way for the parties to come back to a holding pattern in which neither side gets the desired outcome, but they both agree that there are ways to reach their long-term goals. This one’s not easy. It’s “Getting to Yes” on the same scale as Begin and Sadat. It may require both sides to agree to make disputed territories like Crimea and Donbas the world’s next security guarantee protectorate where neither party takes claim for some time. Mr. Yermak could be correct in pointing out that Israelis are experienced in dealing in difficult issues.
The third problem in negotiations is this: Who guarantees that the parties will honor their respective lines after shooting ceases? Ukrainians proposed that the UN Security Council members, previously China, France, Britain, and Soviet Union, be guarantors. However, they are willing to consider adding other countries. Mr. Yermak mentioned that Italy was added to the Atlantic Council’s list of willing guarantors. He also said that Ukraine would be happy to have other countries, such as India or Japan, join the international coalition of peacekeepers. Both sides are aware of the necessity for it. Russia just doesn’t want the guarantor to be NATO. They are looking for volunteers.
What will happen to this? Now, it’s all hopeful talk. It is the diplomatic goal to prepare for a possible face-to-face encounter between Putin and Zelensky. There’s urgency on both sides. Ukraine won’t last forever. Neither will the domestic spin Russia is doing to cover up how badly the “special military operation” went wrong.
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