Tuesday’s Elections Provide Consternation for Democrats, More Evidence of a Coming Red Wave – Opinion

If you don’t live in states such as California, Georgia, or Wisconsin, you may have been unaware there were various elections going on last night. There were a mix of special and local elections, with the first stage in a special election for Rep. Devin Nunes to be replaced.

Given what we know about the current electoral environment, namely that it’s terrible for Democrats, the results weren’t shocking. But they did provide more evidence of a coming red wave as November’s mid-terms approach.

CA-22, Republicans cleaned upThese levels are unprecedented in recent years.

With 74% of votes in, Republicans are leading 64-36 tonight. The GOP has 4 candidates and 2 Dems. (The runoff will take place R/D, with the R strongly favored), this could give an increase to Rs.

This is quite a remarkable result for Rs. What I was hoping to see in a Latino … https://t.co/9y9QgQT4UL

— Douglas Lukasik (@DouglasLukasik) April 6, 2022

CA-22 was a majority Hispanic neighborhood that went to Nunes only by five points in 2018 and eight points in 2020. Last March’s jungle primary saw only 56% of votes go to the GOP. The Republican Party was expected to win around 64%, while the Republican-Democrat spread reached 18 points.

Obviously, the margins are great for the GOP, but what’s more impressive is that this is a district that is more Hispanic than the last time Republicans were winning it by 15+ points. If that translates to the general election (and past jungle primaries have to a large degree), it would mean that the GOP gains among Hispanics aren’t just happening in the Rio Grande Valley, but everywhere.

The Republicans in Wisconsin won their local office in Kenosha Waukesha. It was also the first ever victory.

ALERT FOR ELECTION

Samantha Kerkman is the new Republican Kenosha County Executive.

— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) April 6, 2022

ALERT FOR ELECTION

Two liberal incumbents were eliminated by conservative candidates after they won three of the three City of Waukesha School Board seats. pic.twitter.com/SLgJ7PhCgN

— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) April 6, 2022

Many Wisconsin school board elections saw major issues such as Critical Race Theory, indoctrination of kids and the indoctrination issue. This led to many anti-CRT candidates winning.

Two contested Elmbrook School Board races are won by Conservatives:

Kathy Lim-776-55%
Daniel Medeiros-6,260-45%

Linda Boucher-7,966-58%
Katie Rasoul-5,753-42%

10% off

— Jason Calvi (@JasonCalvi) April 6, 2022

ALERT FOR ELECTION

Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin — Three conservative “Moms on a Mission” have swept the three school board seats in Menomonee Falls, ousting two liberal incumbents. pic.twitter.com/JQIvtJFfT8

— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) April 6, 2022

ALERT FOR ELECTION

Anti-CRT moms Heather Eslick and Jennifer Foley have won election to the school board in Lee’s Summit, Missouri. pic.twitter.com/4FmmEo8lPx

— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) April 6, 2022

The GOP received more positive news from the Georgia State House jungle primaries.

ALERT FOR ELECTION

Georgia State House District 45

Mitchell Kaye (R) – 41.66%
James McCormick (D) – 40.47%

Estimated > 99% vote in.

— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) April 6, 2022

That result actually had some Democrats celebrating, but that’s a complete misread. It was another jungle primary. This means Mitchell Kaye got only 41.6 percent, but two other Republicans accounted for 18.5 percent. The margins were significantly increased by the fact that the GOP won 55 percent of 2020’s vote. A two point swing back to the Republicans can make all the difference in winning or losing in a state such as Georgia.

In the end, these are all small data points, but they track exactly what we’ve seen over the last year in various other elections, including the general elections that took place last November in states like Virginia. The evidence isn’t clear that Democrats are losing ground. Republicans appear to be well placed to not just take back the House of Representatives, but also to make significant gains at state and local levels. And in the end, it’s those state-level power structures that often deliver the most results.