Transfer of NATO Aircraft to Ukraine Falls Through as Zelensky Resumes His Campaign for a No Fly Zone – Opinion

On Monday night, it seemed like history was in the making. NATO member states that had been in the Warsaw Pact were now willing to donate about 70 Soviet built warplanes from their countries to Ukraine. They were to move the aircraft (56 MiG-29s, 12 from Slovakia, and 16 from Bulgaria) to an airbase located in Poland. The pilots from Ukraine would be reunited there. The NATO version of the Soviet planes have superior flight controls and avionics. This meant that they would need to undergo transition training over the next week. Pilots then would transport the aircraft to Ukrainian airbases.

As logistics became a problem, the deal fell apart today. The Ukrainian ground crews don’t know how to maintain the NATO aircraft. There are many spare parts available for both avionics engines and avionics. There was only one viable option: imitate Soviet pilots who flew MiG-15s to attack UN troops in Korea. This was not a thought anyone considered to be a top-ten idea.

Here’s my second point. Bad ideas don’t die, they simply get re-used for ever. This is almost axiomatic. One of those truly bad ideas is the idea of a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, presumably enforced by NATO aircraft. This is a zone that would stop Russian attacks and logistic aircraft operating in fear of being shot down. Operation PROVIDE COMFORT was the most well-known example of a no fly zone. It was established in Northern Iraq from 1991 to 2003. This became Operation NORTHERN WITNESS. But the mission that was carried out there was very different. It targeted an incompetent and small-minded Iraqi Air Force. And it operated in a low-threat setting. NATO planes would be able to contact a highly-trained, but not well-equipped air force under a no-fly zone above Ukraine. This environment is dominated by advanced surface-to-air missile system. SAMs will be launched at NATO aircraft and NATO aircraft will engage SAMs. There would undoubtedly be conflict between these two sides once the announcement was made. SAMs that harass NATO aircraft may be found on Russian territory. This would create a new politicomilitary issue.

This arrangement is not easy to comprehend without the possibility of it becoming something Adam Kinzinger doesn’t want.

#BREAKING @RepKinzingerCalls for NATO and the US to declare no FLYZONE #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ZWfAiCPJKL

— 🇺🇦Paula Chertok🗽🇺🇦 (@PaulaChertok) February 25, 2022

No. This is crazy. https://t.co/5wAIuHtdYE

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) February 26, 2022

About the time the aircraft transfer was unspooling, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky was pleading with NATO to do exactly that.

News: Zelensky, who remains in Ukraine under siege from Vladimir Putin, said in a statement to Axios provided through an adviser: “If the West does this, Ukraine will defeat the aggressor with much less blood.”

• “The sanctions are heading in the right direction. In addition to disconnecting the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT and providing more Stingers and anti-tank weapons, we need the West to impose a no-fly zone over significant parts of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
• “Ukraine can beat the aggressor. The world is witnessing this. But our allies must also do their part.”

 

The game is something to be admired. Ukraine is in a position that looks pretty hopeless (Wishful Thinking Aside, Putin Will ‘Win’ in the End — but at What Cost?). Abject surrender may not be an option. His best move is to drag it out into a prolonged Chechen-like conflict that causes tens or thousands of deaths for Russia. As the casualties increase and the cities of Ukraine are destroyed, Russia will undoubtedly regain their true nature, resume civilized life, and treat Ukrainian civilians as they would in East Prussia 1945. These sanctions are likely to remain in effect for at most a generation.

Even with the heroism of Ukraine’s people and its armed forces, it does not constitute a critical national security risk to the United States. Engaging in combat with Russia over Ukraine doesn’t take anyone where they really wish to go. It is important that we continue to finance and arm Ukraine. As long as the government and people desireTo fight the Russians, and in doing so, to bleed their economies into the ground.* This should be a painful, bloody experience for Russia that leaves it a destitute international pariah with a demoralized populace. Although Ukraine is not of vital national importance, it offers Western Europe and us an opportunity to demonstrate where Putin fits in the food chain.

We should not allow ourselves to be coerced into fighting in a war that is neither necessary or beneficial for our own interests.

*For the trolls who’ve plagued the comments for the past week claiming that Russia will avoid sanctions by working with China to create an alternative to SWIFT and the dollar, please see your shrink and get your Thorazine dose adjusted. The Chinese system, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System or CIPS, has less than 200 participating banks and uses SWIFT’s infrastructure. Russia’s GDP is the equivalent of New York or Texas. None of that says “a new financial system is at hand.” John McCain, for all of his faults, was right about Russia. He said, “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.” He was right.