May 9 is Victory Day in Russia, just like it was in Russia’s predecessor state, the USSR. This year is a peculiar one for Vladimir Putin’s Russia because he has led Russia into what amounts to a full-bore war with NATO and the EU, plus Australia, South Korea, and Japan. Making matters more problematic is, despite the claims of his fan club, there is no visible path forward that will result in him achieving any of the goals he set out in his speech announcing his “special military operation.”
Our Intelligence Community stated that Putin desired to bring something significant for May 9. (Intelligence Claims Putin Wants A Big Victory in Ukraine before May 9). For a while, it seemed like that “something big” would be a victory in Donbas. Russian troops were semi-rebuilt and pulled out of Kiev to fight in Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts. Rumors circulated that all of Ukraine, from Donetsk to Crimea, would be annexed or made into another puppet regime like the two that exist (Russia Is Creating Facts on the Ground to Support Annexing Eastern Ukraine; 10 Days Into Putin’s ‘New Phase’ of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, There Are Minor Advances but the Clock Is Ticking). More rumors put the new objective of taking Odesa and all of Ukraine’s seacoast and linking up with the treasonous Moldovan province of Transnistria (Putin Decides to Widen the War With Ukraine to Achieve His Objectives).
Russia wouldn’t have anything to celebrate if it weren’t for the intervention of Great Jehovah. While we are all certain that Putin could kick Ukrainian ass and finish this off any moment he wished, for his own inscrutable reasons, he’s decided to sacrifice at least 20,000 Russian soldiers KIA, three times that number wounded, over a thousand front line military vehicles, and the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BREAKING. Russian Flagship is sunk while being town to Port. It has been slow to implement the Donbas offensive. It is absurd to think that Russia might snap up Transnistria and Odesa.
What will happen tomorrow?
He seems to have four options, and possibly some combinations of them.
Accept the loss, offer better futures, and continue to move forward.
Ukraine’s conflict is the 800-lb trans-gorilla. There are increasing casualty reports. Attempted attacks have taken place on draft office buildings. By now, deserters are beginning to reappear back on “the block.” The war can’t be totally ignored, but it can be spun as an ongoing process to rid historically Russian lands of nazis. Putin is a bit like that today.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday vowed that “as in 1945, victory will be ours” as he congratulated former Soviet nations on the 77th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II.
“Today, our soldiers, as their ancestors, are fighting side by side to liberate their native land from the Nazi filth with the confidence that, as in 1945, victory will be ours,” said Putin, who sent Russian troops into Ukraine in February.
“Today, it is our common duty to prevent the rebirth of Nazism which caused so much suffering to the peoples of different countries,” said Putin. He added he hoped “new generations may be worthy of the memory of their fathers and grandfathers.”
Putin also made multiple references not just to soldiers but also civilians on the “home front… who smashed Nazism at the cost of countless sacrifices.”
“Sadly, today, Nazism is rearing its head once more,” charged Putin who has insisted that Ukraine is in the grip of fascism and a threat to Russia and the Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine’s east which Moscow claims to be “liberating.”
I would expect this option to include “I got nukes” bluster, but that would mean it is a day ending in “y.”
Russia plans to fly airborne command plane during its annual “Victory Day” March.https://t.co/7kq3p75TLp
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) May 7, 2022
This may bring back memories of the World War II practice of marching German prisoners through Red Square. The Ukrainians are nazis, or so we’re told.
Prisoners of war could be ‘forced to march through Red Square’ during Putin’s Victory Day https://t.co/Xa00MJdasM
— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) May 3, 2022
But the message would be, “we are fighting, and we are winning.”
The work of eliminating naziism has been completed.
In this scenario, Putin announces the annexation of all currently occupied territory, declares the war over, and blames Ukraine for attacking Russia when it doesn’t stop. It could prove to be a successful attempt at a shoulder throw in judo, but it could also end up being a complete failure. Putin could retain some legitimacy and support from his fanboys by endorsing the war. To anyone but those who depend on his claims that Russia attacked Ukraine, Putin’s claim would seem absurd. TASSPravda,And RIA NovostiStay tuned for more news. You would be much safer if you did this.
Declare war.
Putin may be able to solve certain of his current personnel problems by declaring war. Contract soldiers would no longer be able to quit when they desired, and conscripts could legally be herded off to the front (see The Russian Army Wasn’t Designed for War and Putin’s War in Ukraine Is Proving It). Part of the problem has been resolved, but a bigger one is on its way. Right now, the number of Russian families affected by Putin’s War is minimal. Drafts are particularly harsh on the poor and powerless. If he wishes, a child from a good family could avoid the draft. If you look at the distribution of casualties, the lion’s share comes from the outer reaches of the new Russian Empire. No one in Moscow or St. Petersburg cares because it is a “not my circus, not my monkey” situation. The declaration of war will change all that. All those kids in college or with some other bullsh** excuse to avoid the draft will be out of luck. The next truckloads of bodybags will visit the core of Putin’s power. How will Russian elites and citizens react to the loss of young Ivan, who is going to become a doctor? This will probably be different than what happened to the 20,000 homeless children, street kids, and Mongolian steppe kids who were killed.
Declare partial or full mobilization.
Mobilization scenarios may or not be executed with a declaration war. The mobilization scenario would see men up to 65 years old being swept up by the Russian military and put into the Russian armed forces. Don’t laugh. In Donbas, men aged 18-60 are eligible to join the separatist army. They aren’t very well trained, but they do reduce the number of Russian soldiers killed.
It seems that the Kremlin is signaling that mobilisation is not possible.
Russian TV’s senior military analyst stated that mobilisation would not accomplish much, as outdated weapons can’t compete with NATO-supplied equipment and weapons in Ukraine. Also, replenishing Russia’s military arsenal won’t be fast or easy. pic.twitter.com/jzkU7RiZFz
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 7, 2022
Can mobilization be effective?
The 1978 nationwide mobilization exercise, called “The Department of Defense”, was conducted by the Department of Defense in 1978. Nifty Nugget. The exercise involved the military and government agencies from federal to state to test America’s mobilization plans in case of a war with the Warsaw Pact. The motto might have been, “I’ve been to two goat ropes and a county fair, and I ain’t never seen sh** like this before.” The same aircraft were used in the mobilization plans of multiple organizations. Federal agencies didn’t know which of their staff were reservists or had plans for filling their positions. The rail lines that were essential to the movement of troops and their equipment have been destroyed. Some facilities that had been designated as mobilization centres are now gone. This made it difficult for mobilizes men to be clothed, armed, and fed. It was impossible to find officers or noncommissioned officers who could train the units and provide staffing. It was, in short, a failure even though it was paper-only.
I can’t imagine it working much better in Russia. Actually, it could work a lot worse. Unconfirmed reports have it that some Donbas conscripts were issued M1891 Mosin-Nagant bolt-action guns. Conscripts in Donbas often wear both uniform and civilian clothing. In my judgment, flooding their training base with men who don’t want to be there and who are inadequately clothed, housed, and fed is not a great choice. But, then again, invading Ukraine wasn’t a stroke of genius.
What will happen? On February 23, I would have bet good money that the whole “I’m gonna invade Ukraine” thing was a put-on. It didn’t happen.
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