The End of Big Tent Politics – Opinion

The dynamics of political discourse has been changing fundamentally over the last fifteen years. I mean, you could argue that discourse has been getting worse since the days of George W. Bush, but it’s been since the rise of Barack Obama and the cults of personality in politics that things have gotten particularly awful. Trump’s rise has taken it to extremes.

You have former Republicans like Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes, along with all the Lincoln Project folks, who are former establishment types that aren’t so much Republican as they are values mercenaries. These are the warriors of an era gone by, who have been reduced to selling their views to whichever side pays them money or influence. They left the Republican Party and have vowed never to return.

At the same time, you have a not-insignificant number of people who voted Republican because of Trump and have since decided that their guy was screwed out of re-election so they just won’t vote anymore. They too have fled. The tent is not so big anymore, and I don’t think it will be again.

These departures are not the only thing that make up the Republican Party. There is also a lot of people giving it a second chance. You have black and Hispanic voters – not many, but enough to be a noticeable data point – that aren’t happy with where wealthy white progressives are taking the party. You also have some people who aren’t conservative or Republican but are finding themselves more on their side than they were before.

Men like Joe Rogan and Dave Chapelle are examples of Republicans. These men aren’t Republicans. They are unlikely to vote for Republicans. They are shocked at the actions of cultural progressives fueled by political leaders.

Glenn Greenwald, Andrew Sullivan and other writers have been very prominently anti-Republican. They are now openly critical of their own side in a way they weren’t before. Like the comedians they see the effects of the cultural shift on the American left, and the incoherence of the movement.

You can’t and shouldn’t expect that any of those folks would come over to vote for Republicans and conservatives anytime soon. But they also represent a lot of people more toward the middle who, if they don’t vote Republican, might be inspired to stay home and not vote for their usual Democrats. Already, there are warning signs in polling. Democrats panic.

Big tent politics are over. You now have many smaller tents grouped together on one side of the battlefield. The battles are cultural. This is not the battlefield Democrats had to compete on previously, but the ultra-progressive politicians in the base and a vocal minority have moved the battleground slightly. Now, they have to be defensive because they have pushed too far on control of education, silencing speech they don’t like, and other issues.

It is not the GOP’s strongest ground, either. If they are able to keep the attention of those who give them second looks, they may be able to take back some cultural battlegrounds.