Missouri’s primary is so late in the game, it seemed like it would take forever to get here. But here we are, one week away. Several of the races to be decided next Tuesday have a lot of eyes on them — the Democratic primary for the First Congressional District (State Senator Steve Roberts is challenging Congresswoman Cori Bush) and the St. Louis County Executive race (attorney and lobbyist Jane Dueker is challenging incumbent tyrant Sam Page), to name just a couple.
The race that has the most attention is the US Senate race, which Republican Roy Blunt will be vacating at term’s end. We’ve covered that race extensively here at RedState, so it seems fitting to take stock of things now that we’re in the home stretch.
The top two candidates on the Democratic side are Trudy Buch Valentine (Democrat) and Lucas Kunce (Democrat). Missouri Times
Emerson’s poll gives some long-overdue data for the Democrat primary Trudy Busch Valentine, the heiress to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, leads the poll with 39% of the “very likely” vote.
With 35% of votes, Lucas Kunce is second, an ex-military staffer and veteran. This puts him within easy reach. This poll’s game-changer is 22% undecided voters.
Blunt currently holds the Missouri seat and it being the red state of recent times, the conventional wisdom is that the GOP primary will decide the race. Although there are approximately 20 Republican candidates, the top-tier contenders have not changed. Former Governor Eric Greitens and Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler were the most prominent candidates. (Congressman Billy Long, “Pink-Shirt-AR-15 Guy” Mark McCloskey, and State Senate President pro-Tempore Dave Schatz round out the top six.)
In the polls during the race Greitens Hartzler and Schmitt remained in close proximity to one another. The end of March saw the Missouri Scout pollGreitens was at 21%, Hartzler at 13%, and Schmitt 24 percent.
But, Schmitt is growing in the most recent polls. According to the Hill/Emerson poll (July 21-23), Schmitt is at 39%, Hartzler is at 25%, and Greitens falls back at 18% (with undecideds allotted), while Trafalgar Group’s poll of July 22-24 shows Schmitt hovering at 27%, Hartzler 24 percent and Greitens 20 percent.
Schmitt has an advantage due to current fundraising figures. As of July 13, 2022, Schmitt’s campaign had $3.6 million in receipts, with just north of $1 million on hand. Hartzler followed closely, having close to $3.5million in receipts and $1.1million available. Greitens held $2.2million in receipts and $370,000 cash on hand.
One thing to note about those receipts, as detailed in this article, the bulk of Greitens’ contributions (77.8 percent) have come from out-of-state, rather than from Missourians. In contrast, 77.9 percent of Schmitt’s and 74.4 percent of Hartzler’s have come from in-state.
In terms of endorsements, Hartzler picked up Josh Hawley, Missouri’s junior senator, early on, along with that of former Senator Kit Bond.
Schmitt has been endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz (who stumped with him in Missouri on Saturday), Senator Mike Lee, former acting US Attorney General Matt Whitaker, and former National Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien. Another endorsement was given to him by Sarah Huckabee Sanders, on Monday.
We need fighters to take back our country, which is what the U.S. Senate requires. I am aware that Attorney General @Eric_SchmittHas the strength and experience to win November’s election and complete the task. https://t.co/2WPpCcNC4W
— Sarah Huckabee Sanders (@SarahHuckabee) July 25, 2022
One question that is still open to debate in this entire situation, however, is whether President Trump will decide to participate in the race. He will, we know. Not be endorsing Hartzler — he’s made that quite clear. As I pointed out at the time, Hartzler was a very popular choice.
While President Trump has called Greitens “smart” and “tough,” he’s also acknowledged there are some drawbacks.
The appearance will be made later, the pro-Trump OAN TV network, Trump was urged by interviewer Chanel Rion to throw his weight behind Greitens because he is only candidate in the primary to openly condemn Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
“He’s the one the Democrats legitimately want to run against,” Trump said, before later adding: “Eric is tough and he’s smart. A little controversial, but I’ve endorsed controversial people before. So we’ll see what happens.”
There’s a reason the Democrats “legitimately want to run against” Greitens. In addition to the significant baggage that accompanied his resignation and continues to swirl regarding his ongoing custody battle, the polling shows the top Democratic candidates fare better head-to-head against Greitens than against Schmitt or Hartzler.
Schmitt held a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser in March.
Schmitt brings in $1.6M at Mar-a-Lago event with Trumphttps://t.co/6SOMJoPjmK
— The Missouri Times (@MissouriTimes) March 12, 2022
Missouri Times noted:
If Schmitt gets a Trump endorsement the primary would be over.
It remains to be seen if he will. Or won’t he?
Either way, most Missourians’ eyes will be fixed on this race, anxious to see the outcome on August 2nd.
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