Russia and Ukraine may be on track to reach an agreement to end the disastrous strategic, military and political blunder Vladimir Putin created with the invasion of Ukraine.
New York Times reported last week that negotiations were moving.
When President Vladimir V. Putin launched his invasion two weeks ago, he said a primary goal was the “denazification” of Ukraine. He referred to the Ukrainian government as a “gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis,” making it clear that his aim was to topple it.
The Kremlin has signaled that Putin does not want to see Kyiv’s regime changed in recent days. This subtle shift may not be obvious and may even be an intentional one. However, it has led officials scrambling to broker a way to think that Putin might be trying to negotiate a solution to a conflict that is becoming a more bloody slog than expected.
Dmytro Kunleba (Ukraine’s Foreign Minister) is scheduled to meet Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, on Thursday. This will be the first high-level meeting between the two nations since February 24, when the conflict began. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, whose top diplomat has held a total of 10 calls with Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kuleba since the start of the war, said on Wednesday that the meeting could “crack the door open to a permanent cease-fire.”
Both sides were able to soften their positions prior to the meeting. But they still remain divided. Russia has narrowed its demands to focus on Ukrainian “neutrality” and the status of its Russian-occupied regions, and declared on Wednesday that Russia was not seeking to “overthrow” Ukraine’s government. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Tuesday suggested he was open to revising Ukraine’s constitutionally enshrined aspiration to join NATO, and even to a compromise over the status of Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia.
“The changes are noticeable,” Ivan Timofeev, the director of programs at the government-funded Russian International Affairs Council, said of the evolution in Russia’s negotiating position. “This position has become more realistic.”
The Kremlin’s position now, according to comments this week by its spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, is that Ukraine must recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of the Russian-backed, separatist “people’s republics” in the country’s east and enshrine a status of neutrality in its constitution. That is still far from what Mr. Zelensky has said he would be willing to accept — and it could also puncture Mr. Putin’s strongman image at home, opening him up to criticism that he waged an enormous war for limited gain.
On Sunday there was even more laughter from participants. Here is the Google Translate translation of a Russian news agency RIA Novosti story:
Moscow and Kyiv made substantial progress towards a positive outcome in negotiations, Leonid Slovitsky, who is a member the Russian delegation, and heads the State Duma Committee on International Affairs.
He said that the parties had made substantial progress.
“According to my personal expectations, this progress can develop in the very next few days into a unified position of both delegations, into documents for signing,” the politician told RT.
How can you not love a Russian politician named “Slutsky?”
Ukrainians are also more optimistic about the outcome of negotiations.
Ukraine’s lead negotiator says Russia is “looking far more properly” at the situation and thinks they may reach “concrete results” in the next few days.
He says Russia has stopped making “ultimatums”. https://t.co/f2KCcYTloe— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) March 13, 2022
As I see it the problem facing the negotiators is how to reconcile the factual realities with the demands Putin, his international public, has made. Putin’s demands are 1) that the Zelensky government be removed, 2) the Ukrainian military be disbanded, 3) Russian ownership of Crimea be acknowledged by the Ukrainian government, and 4) the Ukrainian government ratifies the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The last three items were in Putin’s grasp before the invasion; right now, barring a total military and political collapse by the Ukrainian government, the first two demands just aren’t on the table. By Putin having made these demands in public on several occasions, it isn’t easy to see how he backs down from any of them and retains his image as the Russian strongman.
It is difficult to imagine how a compromise can be arranged that will entail the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine to positions occupied on February 23 and the continued existence of the Ukrainian military and the Zelensky government with Putin’s public demands.
Russians may be playing a bad cop-good-cop game, if the negotiations ever get serious.
U.S. intelligence officials say Putin is projecting anger, frustration at Russia’s military failures and a willingness to cause more violence and destruction in Ukraine. They say they worry he’ll escalate the conflict to try to break Ukraine’s resistance. https://t.co/Dn85Gsc5jj
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) March 14, 2022
A French presidency official said on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin “did not show a willingness” to end the special operation in Ukraine during a call with President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the weekend.https://t.co/zfnfGvi7l5
— M. K. Bhadrakumar (@BhadraPunchline) March 14, 2022
Anybody who defends democracy as a means of national self-determination must be very clear about refusing to accept scams such as these. Referendums can’t be held under active war, as they happened in Crimea and Luhansk, Donetsk and Luhansk. https://t.co/xHfNZdKcji
— Filipe Henriques (@fhenriques) March 12, 2022
Leaking the “Vlad is mad” narrative and setting up a plebiscite for the purpose of carving off yet another AstroTurf “republic” from Ukrainian territory certainly increases the pressure on Ukraine to cut a deal. It could also backfire, and encourage the Ukrainians even more to go after it. A negotiated solution that does not include military victory is unlikely if the Russians establish a new fake republic in Kherson.
Zelensky says he’s proud of Kherson for protesting occupation. “The invaders in Kherson region are trying to repeat The notorious experience of the formation of pseudo republics. They are trying to intimidate local leaders and put pressure on the deputies. They are trying to organize the so-called ‘KPR.’”
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 13, 2022
Intelligence reports suggest that Russia has begun to withdraw troops from Georgia’s border and the Far East in order to support the conflict in Ukraine.
This is consistent with the Institute for the Study of War’s estimate last night. It wondered if the Russians would be able launch an attack on Kyiv during the next period. pic.twitter.com/tZvjbZOtwY
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 14, 2022
We are only one military step closer to the end of these negotiations, according to my assessment. Russians will raise their demands if the Ukrainian army collapses anywhere. Donetsk, Luhansk would be there if Ukraine wins a large victory.
The Russians are playing for time in the hope that “something” happens. The “something” may be military or it may be political. Putin may be trying to make the FSB the victim by providing him with bad information. Except for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender, it is clear that the Russians will decide the end of this conflict.
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