On Tuesday, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin held a press conference after Russia-Ukraine negotiations ended in Istanbul. He read out a statement which seemed to suggest that Russia has de facto accepted that the decapitation attempt launched against Kiev during hostilities was unsuccessful. (Note that the deputy defense minister made the statement, not by Putin’s favorite courtier Sergei Shoigu who hasn’t been seen in public since March 11, Russia’s Defense Minister Surfaces After Two Week. The Mystery Continues to Deepen and Disappear.
Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.” pic.twitter.com/2qDYOzAzDp
— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 29, 2022
“Due to the fact that the talks on preparing an agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality and non-nuclear status as well as on providing Ukraine with security guarantees are moving to the practical sphere, considering the principles discussed during the meeting today, in order to bolster mutual confidence and create the necessary conditions for the further talks and the achievement of the final goal – the coordination and the signing of the aforementioned agreement – the Russian Defense Ministry has made a decision to cardinally, several-fold decrease the military activity in the direction of Kiev and Chernigov,” he said.
“We are proceeding from the premise that Kiev will make corresponding basic decisions and conditions should be created for the further normal work,” the military official added.
This statement supports the strategic direction outlined by the operations director of the Russian General Staff in a briefing last week (see Russia’s General Staff Claims Invasion Objectives ‘Mainly Accomplished’ and Phase II of Ukraine Invasion Is Starting). The idea was to reduce the force directed against Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities in northern Ukraine and focus military efforts on consolidating Russian control of Donbas and perhaps achieve a so-called “land bridge” to Crimea. After that, Russia would wait to reach a peaceful agreement.
The Russians have made a huge mistake in claiming that there is more to it than they actually are. It is clear that the Russian counter-offensives in Ukraine have rendered some regions uninhabitable.
The guy is named Nathan RuserThese maps are made by Mapmaker. These maps are amazing because they have large swathes of color. He shows which areas are under Russian or Ukrainian control and how wide the roads the troops are. The green areas on the map are not under control.
The threat of Russian troops in the northwest of Kiev is posed by Ukrainian forces pushing from west and east. North northeast of Kiev, you’ll see the city of Chernihiv. As recently as last week, it was already surrounded. The Russian army’s eastern flanks are also at risk after the Ukrainian counterattack cut off their supply routes. Further east, routes are open to Ukrainian territory for Sumy (or Sum), a city that was also surrounded. Further east, Kharkiv, which was almost surrounded by the Soviet Union, has also had its supply routes open to Ukrainian territory.
Russians would like to draw as many units from Kiev-Sumy–Kharkiv back to Russia as possible, then reconstitute them by using vehicles pulled out of storage depots and reservists who are called up. Russia Calls 100,000 Reservists Active Duty. These units will be shipped east to support the Donbas area effort.
Interestingly, the Ukrainians have captured draftees from the Donbas “republics” near Kharkiv, implying that the Russians have shifted a less capable militia force from Donbas and swapped it with a Russian unit.
Separatists from Donbas claimed that they were forced into fighting in Sumy against their will after being captured. Inquiring for surrender. https://t.co/jZhKpmY1Ca
— Бойовий Їжачок (@YuriEzhov) March 28, 2022
#BreakingThese Russian proxies are believed to have been captured near Kharkiv. Strange that Donbas soldiers are found in such a remote area. This stuff is Soviet-era. Most likely conscripts.#UkraineRussia #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineInvasion pic.twitter.com/YIjOZUNMdR
— Military Agent (@MilitaryAgentt) March 26, 2022
The big-brain thinkers in the White House publicly doubt that the withdrawal is real.
“We need to see what the Russians actually do before we trust solely what they’ve said,” Kate Bedingfield, the White House communications director, said during Tuesday’s daily briefing. “We have no reason to believe” Moscow has abandoned its push into Kyiv. “No one should be fooled,” she continued, adding “The world should be prepared for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine.”
It seems that this tactic is a form of hardball negotiation. They think it will have an impact on a negotiation which they don’t want to participate in. The Russians could pull back to start a new offensive in the same region, but this time they would be facing an aggressive and prepared defense. This is not to say the Russians won’t do that, but most military commanders would resist having to fight to take the same real estate twice.
So far so good. Clear signs of repatriation of Russian troops from the Kyiv – Sumy axis back to Russian territory, our colleagues from @CITeam_enPlease tell us
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 29, 2022
Perhaps this is the first indication of Russian troops withdrawing or redeploying from Ukraine. #Kyiv oblast. Russian equipment arrived in Rechitsa to be loaded at the railroad. These items could end up in Donbas. pic.twitter.com/Q7I63bLIve
— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv is confirmed by videos.
Today, many Russian BMDs have crossed the border into Belarus via Ukraine. They were loaded onto rail platforms in Rechitsa or Gomel.
It is a good time for Ukraine to strike the troops that are retreating.
pic.twitter.com/oQKMPgVSLM— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 29, 2022
The plan is unlikely to work as Russia is unable to generate the necessary combat power to fulfill its stated mission. There are no reasons to doubt that it will fail. The Russians are willing to attempt it and have created a story to justify their retreat from Kiev.
Problem with narratives? They must be consistent.
Vladimir Putin has made several public statements outlining his criteria to end the conflict in Ukraine.
- You can interpret that as regime change.
- It is necessary to demilitarize the country, which means dismantling all Ukrainian armed forces.
- Ukraine cannot accept NATO membership or allow foreign troops onto its soil.
- Ukraine must recognize Russia’s ownership of Crimea.
- Ukraine must recognize the “independence” of the fake republics Russia established in Donbas.
Shortly after the deputy defense minister delivered his announcement, the defense ministry posted the text of the statement to Russia’s leading social media site, vk.com. Chrome will translate the comment and statement if you click the link. I’m not sure about other browsers.
The Russian MOD VK page announces an end to all military activity toward Kyiv/Chernihiv. The top comment compares it with the Khasavyurt accord that ended First Chechen War, ending in Russia’s defeat. https://t.co/7xurHQ3jCK h/t @RALee85 pic.twitter.com/rwu5RApy4d
— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 29, 2022
This isn’t the first time that the Russian Army was dealt a slap by an opponent much more powerful. Maria Zarahova was pulled to the ground after she announced the news on Telegram.
Didn’t see this coming: Russians are losing their shit in Zakharova’s TG channel, saying that the government has betrayed the army. They believe the ‘nazis’ are winning, now that RF is retreating from Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/1i7TQ7byH5
— Chris Zeeman (@clzeeman) March 29, 2022
Translation from other comments. pic.twitter.com/YvkXL3evRx
— Acejayce (@Acejayce2) March 29, 2022
Find out more here pic.twitter.com/UPMO1Zfeft
— Acejayce (@Acejayce2) March 29, 2022
Translated pic.twitter.com/sdWc8x5cNY
— Acejayce (@Acejayce2) March 29, 2022
The same frustration is expressed by Russian Z-oriented military channels. They’re having a hard time adapting to the fact that they were promised a nazi regime on the backs of imaginary nazi’s and all they’re going to get is a participation trophy
— Guernica 22 (@TJGuernica) March 29, 2022
Not only Rando Russians were opposed, so were Putin’s allies.
The Dictator #Chechnya, Ramzan #KadyrovDeclared: “My conviction is that the negotiations won’t work.” It is essential to complete what was started, which in my view, means to eliminate the Banderites Nazis and Shaitans. Only then can we make a decision about what the next step should be. pic.twitter.com/Nur69g46aX
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 29, 2022
This all points back to the discussion we’ve had for several weeks. Putin set a clear marker for victory and made it clear to his supporters. This created an expectation that he would do so. Russia appears to have reached a stage where it is going to need to work hard to attain what it achieved on February 21, (see Vladimir Putin Rules the Ukraine Table and Displays Joe Biden as a Feckless Security Partner). This without the necessity of a war. Today, the public statement agreed to leave intact a government that Putin has described as consisting of “nazis” and “drug addicts.” He agrees to leave the Ukraine armed forces in existence. The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO isn’t mentioned. There isn’t a whisper about Donbas independence or the annexation of Crimea. There is one message, “we’re withdrawing away from Kiev.”
This, like the helpful statements by Joe Biden (Here’s Why Biden’s Putin-Regime Change ‘Gaffe’ Was So Egregious) is doing nothing but making it more and more difficult to not only bring the Ukraine war to an end but to keep it from spreading.