It is possible to find some merit in a large global power not being able to gain significant advantages against a small and weaker country. One can wonder if that powerful country is actually as dangerous or not. It is important to not underestimate Russia, but it’s worth noting the fact that military goals that used to be expected have not materialized as fast as scientists thought.
This situation is made more serious for Russia by reports that Putin requested military assistance and support from China.
New —> Russia asks China for weapons, U.S. officials say
“If Beijing is offering any type of military assistance to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine, the spillover effects on U.S.-China policy could be vast.” https://t.co/jOIWawaNGH pic.twitter.com/hDYnbNc99f
— Andrew deGrandpré (@adegrandpre) March 13, 2022
According to U.S. officials, Russia turned to China in recent weeks for assistance and military equipment. This was revealed by The Washington Post.
Because of the sensitive subject matter, the officials spoke anonymously.
It comes as Jake Sullivan (White House national security advisor) plans to fly Monday to Rome to meet Yang Jiechi, his Chinese counterpart.
Sullivan told CNN that the administration was “communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences” for any Chinese efforts to assist Russia in evading sanctions.”
According to Reuters, however, by yesterday afternoon, a Chinese diplomat was saying he had “never heard” of such a thing.
WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) – The spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington responded to media reports on Sunday that Moscow had asked Beijing for military equipment since launching its invasion of Ukraine by saying, “I’ve never heard of that.”
The spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, said China’s priority was to prevent the tense situation in Ukraine from getting out of control.
“The current situation in Ukraine is indeed disconcerting,” he said in an emailed response to a query from Reuters.
China has not stood in opposition to Russia’s aggressive invasion of Ukraine, but they have also not been totally welcoming of it. China’s response initially was that it opposed the invasion of internationally “recognized” states, and Russia did not seem to take this well, later labeling Taiwan an unfriendly “country” – a jab at the “One China” policy (that Russia previously recognized) which declares that Taiwan is not a free country but rather part of China itself.
The Russians seem to have the answer, though, as they sent a statement.
(Reuters) – The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian forces could take full control of major Ukrainian cities and it had sufficient military clout to fulfil all of its aims in Ukraine without any help from China.
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 14, 2022
So either Russia never asked China for assistance (though we have reason to suspect they did) or China said “No” and Russia is trying to save face here. With all the Russian propaganda and their attempts to protect face, through a number of embarrassments and setbacks, I believe that the former.
The whole war has been a global military and PR disaster for Russia, and it’s exposed a lot of Russia’s weaknesses. Despite the peace talks between the sides, it appears that there is no significant progress and the war will go on. Russia’s war crimes continue to mount.
But if China is turning down Russia’s requests for assistance (again, no official confirmation of that but it appears to be the case), then it’s good news for pretty much everyone except the Russians, and for Russia to even (allegedly) have to ask does nothing but force us to ask the question we’ve been asking since they launched this war and failed to pick up any decisive wins: Is Russia the threat it used to be?
Right now, it doesn’t seem like it.
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