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Russia Admits 5201 Casualties in Ukraine, but the Numbers Ask More Questions Than They Answer – Opinion

By Pluralist / March 25, 2022

It has been a little more than a month since the Russian invasion began in Ukraine. I believe it safe to say it hasn’t turned out like most people expected. It was expected that the Russians would take down a weaker Ukrainian army, seize Kiev quickly, replace Zelensky with something stronger, and then dictate terms for peace.

A couple of “tells” that this was the plan. For instance, internal security troops from Rosgvardiya were in advance units of the first wave (for discussion on this branch of the Russian armed forces, read Top General in Putin’s Personal Army Is Arrested by FSB). The Russian helicopter-borne troops launched an air attack on Hostomel Airport, 15 miles away from Kiev, the morning before the second day. By February 28, the paratroopers had been eliminated, and the Russian armor that should have linked up with the airborne force within 24 hours still hadn’t gained control of the airport.

Needless to say, the Russians have reached the Mike Tyson stage of this operation, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Unsolved mysteries remain about the Russian casualties. Both sides have not been forthcoming about their casualties but Russia seems to be the most interested. The aggressive, effective operation of the Territorial Defense Force and Ukraine’s response to the invasion have led to it being reasonable to conclude that Ukraine is able to continue to create manpower. Zelensky called on a levée en masseOn March 1, This is an entirely legal action, despite what some may think. All those who respond to this call are protected by the Geneva Conventions, in the same way that Russians are ever protected. Many males have returned to arms after fleeing the country with their families. Even some unwilling patriots are included in this mix.

There is also a belief that Russia may be more sensitive to casualties. This is not Stalin’s USSR, and the mothers of dead soldiers had a heavy influence on the Soviet decision to leave that country. Russian regional media are receiving more such announcements. They are sure to have an effect.

Russia will induct a new 12-month draftee class from April 1st. Either the draftees in Ukraine have to be freed within two months or Putin has to sign an order keeping them active. This will change the status of his “special operation” to something that will be called “war.”

Many estimates exist of Russian casualties. For clarity purposes, the deaths are those of dead+wounded. This campaign undoubtedly left many missing and deserters. NATO provided an estimate which looks wild. It doesn’t look terribly reliable when your upper range of deaths exceeds the lower by 100%.

The Kremlin published its first official count in March. It placed Russian casualties at 2,095 (with 1,597 dead) and 1,597 injured. See Russia’s Ukraine Adventure: Russia releases the Official First Casualty Count. Komsomolskaya Pravda published a casualty list on March 21st, but it was quickly removed. This pullquote is from Number of Russians Killed in Ukraine May Have Just Leaked out – and It’s Big by my colleague Nick Arama.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense the Komsomolskaya Pravda, 9,861 Russian soldiers were killed and 16,153 wounded in Ukraine during the invasion. The number was later retract and they claimed that it had been hacked.

The official count has been provided by the Russian Defense Ministry, one month after first tanks crossed the Ukraine border, in an unprecedented landgrab in Europe since September 1939.

Russia has reported that 1351 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in fighting in Ukraine. This was the first casualty report Moscow provided for more than 3 weeks. The figure is well under Western intelligence estimates and Ukrainian estimates.

Senior military officials said in Moscow on March 25 that 3,850 Russian soldiers had been injured in the fighting, which began on February 24 when Russia launched its unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

Several things stand out about this. It is astounding that 1 in 2 of the dead are wounded. This astonishing ratio is remarkable in an army which would be considered First World. The US had a ratio of about 1:17 in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Soviet Army in World War II had a  1:3 ratio. This has two consequences. First, combat first aid is non-existent. Because he won’t receive medical attention, any soldier with a severe wound is declared dead. A second meaning is that the Russians may have given someone a list of dead (real or fake) and asked them to pretend that they knew the total number. For the sake of realism, the staff member decided to stick with the task and use WW II ratios.

The numbers ask many questions. Since February 24, the intensity of fighting has not diminished. In Mariupol, street fighting has been taking place between Russian troops and Chechen mercenaries. Both sides have engaged in street fighting. Straight-lining numbers would lead to the expectation that the dead count will be four times what was reported in the March 4 casualty list. That isn’t what we have. Russians say their losses per week have decreased since the start of the second week. Given the activities we’ve seen in the past three weeks, this is improbable, to say the least.

We also know the number of Russian vehicle destroyed so far, thanks to commercial satellite imagery. While the actual number may be greater, it is most likely that we have the floor. To see the entire database of destroyed Russian vehicles, click on the image to view the link. As of today:

295 tanks,

97 vehicles for armored combat,

There are 153 vehicles for infantry combat,

76 armored personnel carrier

12 mine resistant vehicles similar to MRAPs

64 Utility vehicles that look similar to HMMWV

11 Communication vans

54 Engineering vehicles,

41 self-propelled and 54 towed pieces

33 MRLS,

40 SAM systems…

Although I could continue, I believe you see the point. Russia has lost almost as many combat vehicle as men. If you assume the destroyed tanks were manned, there are three dead Russians for each of those because we’re seeing destroyed Russian tanks are all catastrophic kills involving the ready rack ammunition cooking off. There are three men on each of these infantry fighting vehicles and seven dismounts. It is very difficult to make any association between the casualties of destroyed vehicles and those who died.

So we can say with a great deal of certainty that we still don’t know the number of casualties inflicted upon the Russian Army; at the same time, we can also say that number is substantially higher than the Russians admit. The number of casualties only becomes an issue if it affects Russia’s ability to sustain combat operations. We’ll see how that pans out in the next couple of weeks.

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Pluralist

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