According to British newspapers, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered at least two top officers of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to be arrested. The FSB, which is the successor of the KGB and does not have an overseas portfolio, is now the successor. The FSB does have an operation within the now independent countries that made up the Soviet Union. These territories are, according to Russian law, forbidden territory for the SVR or foreign intelligence services.
According to reports, a Russian spy chief was placed under house arrest. This is a signal that Putin wants to put the blame on the security forces for the slow invasion of Ukraine.
Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch, was arrested with Anatoly Bolyukh, his deputy, according to a leading expert on the Russian security services.
Andrei Soldatov is the co-founder of Agentura and the editor. Agentura monitors the FSB. Sources within the FSB confirmed that both were detained.
Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian exile human rights activist confirmed the arrests. He said that FSB agents had conducted searches at over 20 Moscow addresses of colleagues who were suspected to be in touch with journalists.
“The formal basis for conducting these searches is the accusation of the embezzlement of funds earmarked for subversive activities in Ukraine,” Osechkin said. “The real reason is unreliable, incomplete and partially false information about the political situation in Ukraine.”
The spy chief’s defenestration attests to Putin’s growing fury towards the intelligence services, which he believes provided false information over the situation in Ukraine, Soldatov said. “Putin has finally understood that he was misled,” Soldatov told The Times.
Beseda, 68, heads the FSB’s Fifth Service, which is responsible for intelligence-gathering in Ukraine.
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Bolyukh is now 66 and is in charge of the Department of Operative Information. This is an area of the Fifth Service.
The article goes on to note that the reason for the arrest, according to Russian sources, was that the intel before the invasion was “simply not right, which is part of the reason as to why things have gone so badly for Russia.” The article also notes that sources say that if Putin is this angry at the FSB that major leadership changes are underway. The story runs in tandem with another story from last week alleging that Putin has fired at least eight generals involved in the Ukraine fiasco (note the story originates in Ukraine, which doesn’t make it wrong, it is just a warning to beware).
Interestingly, the article doesn’t contend that the intelligence gathered by the FSB was wrong but that it was massaged along the way to provide Putin with the answer he wanted to hear.
However, he added: “The problem is that it is too risky for superiors to tell Putin what he doesn’t want to hear, so they tailor their information. This tailoring is likely to take place between colonel rank and general level in the FSB. We can’t rule out the fact that the intelligence they gathered on the ground was in fact very good.”
An FSB official allegedly wrote a report last weekend. He complained of being overwhelmed and used the Russian advance as a pretext. They added: “I can’t tell you what led those in charge to decide to proceed with the operation but now they are methodically throwing us to the lions. We are being scolded for our analysis.”
In the old Soviet Union, there were “three pillars” or power hierarchies: the Party, the Army, and the KGB. Leadership is about playing these hierarchies against each other while keeping them from feeling threatened. Within each of those “pillars,” there were competing centers of power that were constantly jostling for position, which largely prevented unified political action by the entire “pillar.” Because any two of the hierarchies working in consonance could crush the third, it was essential to keep bureaucratic alliances from forming that would undermine the stability of the state.
The arrests of two top FSB officers responsible for Ukraine indicates, at a minimum the situation in Ukraine is not good. Vladimir Putin did not mastermind the killing of over 3,000 soldiers. If the story of the fired generals is correct, then it is clear that the Ukraine invasion has reached the soup-sandwich stage of being f***ed up. The big question is, how will the FSB and Army react to being scapegoated for an invasion they probably weren’t crazy about getting involved in? These organizations will be able to stand by and see their reputations destroyed.
There is an old joke in project management about the stages of any big, can’t-fail project. These are: a) Unbounded Enthusiasm; b) Total Desillusionment; c) Panic and Hysteria, overtime; d) Frantic Search to find the guilty; e) Punishment for the innocent and f) Rewarding the involuntary.
The stage seems to be d. Unless the situation improves, the people who take over at FSB will be experiencing e. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.
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