I’ve seen more than a few tweets and even videos from YouTube citizen journalists that surmise that Tesla/SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, might be walking away from Twitter after finding out that the site is comprised of far more bots in its userbase than was originally advertised.
As Musk noted during a recent interview, he noted the discovery that the number of bots on the site was actually four to five times higher than the number he was told “was a big deal,” and used an analogy involving termites and a house.
Twitter is home to 4-5x the number of spam/fake accounts as it has been claimed. It’s big deal. Imagine that you agree to buy my house if the termites are less than 5%. But, if they turn out to be 90%, then it is a big deal. It’s not the same house” — @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/fbLMXkHeTf
— Pranay Pathole (@PPathole) May 18, 2022
Many speculated that Musk would leave after realizing that his userbase was far cheaper than he paid for.
I’m not so sure.
For one, despite this discovery, Twitter is still the “de facto town square” as he had previously described it. This website is still used by the western world to communicate with one another, exchange opinions and run advertising campaigns. It is used to communicate with voters and announce world leaders. It is used today by journalists for sharing videos, reporting and spreading opinions.
Twitter is an important location, and although many have attempted to copy its success, nothing so far has been close.
Let’s pair that fact with the mission Musk said he was on. Musk wanted the square to be a place of free speech for society’s benefit. Musk may be a businessman but it is much more than a transaction. He’s on a mission to improve society and advance it. This has been the focus of his business for a while. As he’s professed, free speech is integral to the advancement of society.
Authoritarians are not accustomed to this kind of progress and have tried to decry and stop Musk at each step. The closer he gets to his goal the more they’re going to turn up the heat. Judging from the tweets Musk has been releasing lately, he’s aware that things are only going to get worse for him. This tweet, which he posted yesterday, is a clear indication that he’s determined to go the distance.
I expect political attacks against me to escalate in the next few months
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2022
Why would they if he’s going to back down and allow them to win?
What’s really happening here is that Musk is making it clear that he’s overpaying. He’s using the knowledge about the bots, and his very public declarations about it, to bring down the price and pay far less for the de facto town square. It is becoming clear that Twitter bots are very common here. This gives Twitter more reasons to sell to Musk to make sure they get some cash.
Musk holds them in the financial short hairs. The board will soon ask Musk his price. At this point, Musk walking away would cost him a billion dollars but for a man worth around $268 billion that’s nothing. Musk might not purchase, and the board will be concerned about this threat. Musk is the king of leverage, and Twitter loses it with each new report.
So Musk is in a very powerful position and I doubt he’d walk away from that. With this in mind, and the inclusion of his stated mission of free speech advancing society, it’s doubtful Musk will walk away from his mission of owning Twitter. He seems to know things are going to get even more heated, indicating he’s not giving up.
I wouldn’t count on Musk throwing in the towel. He doesn’t seem the type.
Here’s my advice: Get the dip because Musk sure is.
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