The Financial Times published an exclusive report on Wednesday about the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. These negotiations began only four days following the Russian invasion. There was little progress until March 10, when Turkey announced it was hosting a “high level” meeting between the two parties. On Monday, I posted how the Russians and Ukrainian peace delegations were making pleasing noises about “progress,” see Russians and Ukrainians Say Peace Talks Show Progress but ‘Getting to Yes’ Seems Very Far Away.
Today’s news comes in a story titled Russia and Ukraine discuss a neutrality agreement in peace talks.
IMPORTANT Breaking-Ukraine & Russia tentative 15-point peace plan. Ceasefire & Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality, renounces NATO ambitions & not host foreign military bases or weapons in exchange for protection from allies like US, UK & Turkeyhttps://t.co/sgYwOAKQ8Y
— Heather Childers (@HeatherChilders) March 16, 2022
The article doesn’t enumerate the points, so I’ll do my best to extract the highlights from the story.
According to five persons briefed, the two countries have advanced significantly on a preliminary peace plan that includes a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal in case Kyiv declares neutrality or accepts limitations on its armed forces.
According to two people, the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had discussed the deal fully for the first times on Monday. According to the sources, Kyiv would have to renounce its plans to join NATO and promise not to host any foreign military bases or weapons in return for allies like the US, UK, and Turkey.
However, the nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their acceptability to Moscow — could prove to be a big obstacle to any deal, as could the status of the country’s territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent the Kremlin’s aggression against its neighbour.
…
A Russian source informed on the negotiations said that the settlement proposed could allow both parties to claim victory if it is agreed upon.
“Every side needs a win,” the person said. “He needs to be able to sell it to the people. Putin may say, “We wanted to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO” and placing missiles or bases in Ukraine’s territory. If they do that, he can say, ‘I got it.’”
These are the main points of the agreement:
- Russia has withdrawn its troops from Ukraine.
- Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to exist.
- Ukraine agrees to not join NATO
- Ukraine may join the EU.
- Ukraine can enter into bilateral “security guarantees” with other countries; there are no limits on the countries or number of countries Ukraine can deal with.
- Ukraine is not a place for foreign troops.
- Ukraine cannot accept foreign weapon systems.
- Ukraine has given Russian language official status
For reasons I outlined in Russians and Ukrainians Say Peace Talks Show Progress but ‘Getting to Yes’ Seems Very Far Away, all of this is easier said than done.
Vladimir Putin set five conditions to end the conflict when it began. First, the Zelensky government had to be removed (he called them “nazis and drug addicts” and said Ukraine had to be de-nazified). The Ukrainian armed forces had to be disbanded, and the country made “neutral.” Ukraine had to recognize Russia’s ownership of Crimea. Finally, Ukraine was required to acknowledge the AstroTurf statelets Donetsk & Luhansk.
Make a quick comparison of the “15 point plan” to Putin’s casus belli, and you’ll see the problem. Making matters stranger still is that the leak of the “15 points” did not come from the Ukrainians as a way of trying to move the Russians; it came from the Russian negotiators trying to stampede the Ukrainians into a deal.
Response from Ukraine’s lead negotiator to FT report that Russia and Ukraine are discussing a 15-point peace plan.
Russia claims that it only represents what Russia proposes. https://t.co/OzMwIlvmJF— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) March 16, 2022
Indeed, I’m not sure what some of the terms mean, and I’m pretty sure the negotiators don’t either. So, for example, will the Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine mean that everything returns to its original position on February 23rd? For that matter, what is Ukrainian territory? Donetsk or Luhansk available for sale? Do the Russian “peacekeepers” Putin announced three days before going to war (see Vladimir Putin Orders Russian Peacekeeping Troops Into Eastern Ukraine) count as “Russian troops?”
The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region.
Podolyak stated that Ukraine refused to accept the matter but would compartmentalise it.
What did Putin achieve with three weeks of war, approximately 4,000 deaths, and more than 20,000 injured soldiers, when the war ended without any territorial issues being answered? In fact, if the Russian Army withdraws, Ukraine will be able to rearm and refit and roll over the armies of the sham “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. Furthermore, this will all be possible under the auspices of bilateral security arrangements.
Obviously, we can’t know what is happening behind the scenes, but the Ukrainians aren’t all that keen on it in public statements; here, again, I’m quoting the Financial Times.
Although Moscow and Kyiv both said they had made progress on the terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials are sceptical Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.
“There’s a likelihood this is trickery and illusion. They lie about everything — Crimea, the build-up of troops on the border, and the ‘hysteria’ over the invasion,” said a Ukrainian source briefed on the talks.
“We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice” but to agree a peace deal, the person added.
Putin was uncompromising on Wednesday and vowed that Moscow will achieve its entire war goals in Ukraine. “We will never allow Ukraine to become a stronghold of aggressive actions against our country,” he said.
Putin’s speech today again referred to the Ukrainian government as nazis as well as claiming the invasion was going as planned (if so, he needs to do something about the planner), and he was going to achieve what he set out to do. I don’t see any way to square the circle of Putin’s pre-war demands and the best deal he can hope for in negotiations. A deal will require a huge climbdown for Putin for all the world to see…or something more vigorous taking place inside the Kremlin.
According to me, the peace talks are an indicator of Russia’s view on the conflict. It was clear that the Russians’ ambitious operation plan, which was launched on February 24, was unlikely to succeed at the first meeting. After the Russians began to agree to high-level talks, it was clear that the operation was heading towards a deadlock.
U.K. MOD maps for Ukraine war of today and one week ago. We have heard much about Russia’s military reorganizing and improving its logistical capabilities, but there is little evidence to support this claim. pic.twitter.com/uCGpA19oiX
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 16, 2022
Zelensky does not seem like someone who is trying to find a peace agreement or ceasefire.
Volodymr Zelensky said on Wednesday peace talks with Russia were sounding ‘more realistic’ but more time was needed for any deal to be in the interests of Ukraine.
Zelensky made the early morning statement after his team said a peace deal that will end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be struck with Vladimir Putin within one or two weeks because Russian forces will run out of fresh troops and supplies by then.
‘The meetings continue, and, I am informed, the positions during the negotiations already sound more realistic. But time is still needed for the decisions to be in the interests of Ukraine,’ Zelenskiy said in a video address on Wednesday, ahead of the next round of talks.
He sounds more like someone who realizes that the Russian position will weaken the longer he delays it.
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