There is an acute diplomatic crisis in Eastern Europe. Nation after nation believes that Russian diplomacy is designed to weaken the legitimate government, or split Russian speakers apart from each other rather than promote mutual understanding. Moreover, the activities by Russian intelligence operatives that had been tolerated in the past have now run head-on into unified support of Ukraine and condemnation of Putin’s bloody and illegal invasion of that country. Many countries are now taking steps to address the situation.
Bulgaria is expelling 10 Russian diplomats saying they were carrying out activities deemed incompatible with their diplomatic status; a move followed up quickly by the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on March 18 that it had given the 10 diplomats 72 hours to leave.
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Shortly thereafter, Estonia and Latvia announced that they had both expelled three Russian diplomats. Lithuania claimed it had instructed four Russians to leave the country.
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Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said on Twitter that Riga was expelling three Russian Embassy employees “in connection with activities that are contrary to their diplomatic status and taking into account ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.”
“The decision has been coordinated with Lithuania and Estonia,” he added.
Estonia said the three diplomats it had asked to leave “have directly and actively undermined Estonia’s security and spread propaganda justifying Russia’s military action.”
These exiled Russian diplomats have been enjoying the last days of social media.
Let’s talk about the fond memories. 😁 pic.twitter.com/g6x4rrMAFJ
— Tour Of The Future 🌻 (@TourOfTheFuture) March 18, 2022
The diplomatic scuffle’s ground zero is Warsaw.
Russia charged Poland Thursday with trying to end bilateral relations through the expulsion of 45 diplomats. It said that it will respond severely.
The Russian ambassador said Poland, which said on Wednesday it was expelling the diplomats on suspicion of working for Russian intelligence, had also blocked the embassy’s bank accounts.
The Russian foreign ministry said the expulsions were “a conscious step towards the final destruction of bilateral relations, the dismantling of which our Polish ‘partners’ have been systematically carrying out for a long time”.
It added: “Russia will not leave this hostile attack without a response, which will make Polish provocateurs think and will hurt them.”
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Russian ambassador to Warsaw Sergey Andreev said the embassy’s bank accounts had been blocked on the basis that they could be used for money-laundering or terrorist finance.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: “I can only say in general terms that we have been dealing with the freezing of funds of the Russian Federation.”
I think Poland’s concern is more than espionage. Poland is one of the principal backers of Ukraine’s resistance and got way out over its skis in trying to transfer MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine (Transfer of NATO Aircraft to Ukraine Falls Through as Zelensky Resumes His Campaign for a No Fly Zone). Poland is still a key transit country for supplies and weapons for Ukraine. In response, Russia has warned that it may target supply shipments (NATO Weapons Shipments to Ukraine Are ‘Legitimate Targets,’ Russia Declares), and it carried out a missile attack on a Ukrainian base very close to a major Polish airbase (Russia Demolishes a Ukrainian Training Camp on the Polish Border as Putin Gives Joey SoftServe a Brushback Pitch). Earlier this week, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who we have to assume was acting as a Putin surrogate, unleashed a blistering attack on the government of Polish President Andrzej Duda (Former Russia President Calls Poland the Source of ‘Evil, Vulgar and Shrill’ Propaganda and Joe Biden ‘Demented’ as Biden Prepares to Visit Poland) over his rejection of the idea that Poland is part of a Russian “sphere of influence” and owes Russian some huge favor for cooperating with Hitler to partition Poland and then slaughtering a few hundred thousand Poles during the occupation and “liberation.”
Poland is concerned about direct action against targets in Poland by Russian operatives (though the last month’s activities should dispel any undue fear of Russian special forces).
Poland has frozen the Russian embassy in Warsaw’s bank accounts for “terrorism financing”.
A high-ranking Russian diplomat had allegedly told a Polish counterpart that an incident similar to the Vrbětice ammunition warehouses explosions in Czechia in 2014 could happen in Poland.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 24, 2022
The reference to the “Vrbětice ammunition warehouse explosions” refers to a GRU operation that destroyed two warehouses containing some 150 tons of military munitions. It makes sense to freeze bank accounts, while exiling GRU and/or SVR officials under embassy covers, if it is believed that a covert operation is planned to target the Ukraine supply route.
No matter the outcome in Ukraine, Russia’s reputation and relationship with neighboring states is shot for the next decade or so. Russia’s energy dependence is causing nations to look for alternatives. Poland has increased its defense spending by 3% of its GDP. This makes it third in NATO, and triples the size of its military to 300,000. Russia is not the only one doing this. A majority of Swedes, Finns and others want to join NATO for the first time ever in NATO’s history. Whatever Putin’s plan was when he invaded Ukraine, it didn’t include making Russia a pariah and causing states bordering Russia to arm themselves to the teeth.
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