Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sought to clarify ongoing U.S. efforts regarding the war in Ukraine Sunday, in appearances on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and CBS’s “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”
Now, the United States has a strategy for Russia to economically squeeze it to the extent that sanctions result in an internal crisis within the Russian Federation. This forces President Vladimir Putin away from his ambitions of conquering the world. This risky strategy, where many fear the worst is yet to come, very much depends on keeping the Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion viable until that moment arrives.
Putin also knows this well. Putin can clearly see the Ukrainian defenses becoming stiffer since the invasion. He is now confronted with the fact that the numerically superior structure of his force has the capability to wart, despite the extensive planning and drills he put into it to bring Ukraine back under the control of Mother Russia. The modern weapons of today and the motivated defense personnel are rapidly reducing Russian strategies to an age-old strategy of siegecraft using artillery and destruction of infrastructure to degrade morale and destroy the population.
This isn’t how the Russian general staff thought it was going to go. There are enough reports about bewildered Russian soldiers that have been posted online to show that they thought it would be a drive-in, complete with flowers in barrels. Locals were grateful for the rescue from a Nazi government. It’s the same, naïve mistake the Leonid Brezhnev made in Afghanistan in the 1980s, an outcome that resulted in the same face losing withdrawal for the USSR that the U.S. experienced in Afghanistan last August.
Analysts I’ve discussed Russian military activity patterns with note that, until this weekend, their use of force has been remarkably constrained and surgical. They’ve made little attempt to engage the Ukrainian military in a full-force, armored mobile front battle, even though they clearly have the mass and firepower to do so. As of today, they are playing cat and mouse games with the mayors of the cities they’ve surrounded, engaging in combinations of harassing bombardments and offers of refugee corridors. It’s not hard to see that they have orders to absorb some casualties, while bearing in mind that, when the war ends, their country will have to rebuild everything they blow up. Don’t forget about the “Paper Tiger” narrative. The numbers just don’t add up this way. The pride leader has instructed this lion not to feed yet.
This of course begs the question, “What does Vladimir Putin really want?” Does he, as hawks suggest, want to subjugate all of Ukraine as a prelude to continuing westward to conquer Europe? Does he want to split Ukraine into a part he fully controls in the east for ethnic Russians, and a part in the west where he achieves the neutral buffer zone Ukraine between himself and NATO that he’s been clamoring for since he took charge of the Russian Federation after Boris Yeltsin?
The problem with finding the answer to those questions is that the U.S. and Russia aren’t talking to each other, at least not openly. For now, the U.S. and its allies are focused on bringing a reluctant Putin to the diplomatic table, and Mr. Putin is focused on consolidating his position; so when he does eventually sit down at least fifteen feet away from everyone else’s chairs, he’s standing in the tactical position he wants to be in on Ukrainian soil.
And so, we dive into Secretary Blinken’s carefully arranged talking points.
Fighter Aircraft heading to Ukraine
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN He has been an extraordinary leader. He’s been the embodiment of the Ukrainian people and everything they’re doing to resist this, this Russian aggression. And President Biden’s in regular contact with him as he was just yesterday, on this question of planes. Yes, we’re talking very actively about this, looking at what we could do to backfill Poland, if it chooses to send the MiGs and the SU planes that it has to Ukraine, how we can help by backfilling what they’re giving to the Ukrainians. So that’s in very active discussion as we speak.
CHUCK TODD That’s a Polish decision not a NATO decision?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN: It’s a sovereign decision by Poland, if they choose to do it. We want to make sure that we can help them again, backfill, what they’re giving so that they don’t have any loss in their own ability to provide for security –they’re giving to the Ukrainians. So that’s in very active discussion as we speak.
US has clarified its position regarding the transfer of combat aircraft to Ukraine. The United States pulled out of the transfer of NATO fighters to Ukraine’s Air Force last week. This upset a lot of people, who were critical of the U.S. as yet another example in their fecklessness. Blinken pointed out that while the U.S. doesn’t object to Ukraine receiving military equipment and transferring fighter jets, the U.S. did not support the coordinated NATO move. This made NATO vulnerable to accusations of entering into the conflict with Russia. Due to the possibility of Russia’s involvement, the U.S. has no intention of pushing Ukraine into direct war.
Accordingly, the U.S. revised plan allows for the supply of weapons to Ukraine by individual states, keeping NATO away from the equation. Blinken stated that the new plan is for countries like Poland to make an individual decision to give their MiG’s and Sukhoi’s to Ukraine. Separately, the U.S. will backfill the Poles’ fighter aircraft inventory to make sure their air force remains capable of meeting their NATO defense commitments. It’s a bit of a diplomatic sleight of hand, but I can see the logic to it and support this nuance.
By helping to denial Russian air supremacy over Ukraine, the U.S. proposal helps keep Ukraine’s resistance alive. It pushes back the sticky issue of no-fly zones over Ukraine, which Secretary Blinken emphasized was a non-starter despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pleas because it is too provocative and is 100 percent sure to create exactly the kind of incident that could ignite World War III.
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN: First, again, my admiration for President Zelenskyy has no bounds and if I were in his shoes, I’d be asking and looking for everything possible from everyone in every place around the world. And as I said, what we’ve already done is extraordinary. And just to remind people, over the past year alone, from the United States alone, more than a billion dollars in security assistance, lethal defensive weapons that are being put to very effective service by Ukrainians now in defense of their country, and other measures that we’re looking at going forward.
Chuck, in just the past week, more than $200 million worth of security aid has been delivered to the Ukrainians. This is all ongoing. All of that’s continuing. The president’s been very clear about one thing all along as well, which is we’re not going to put the United States in direct conflict with Russia. You may not have known that American aircraft flew against Russian fighter planes and our troops on the ground in Ukraine. Because for everything we’re doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe. That’s clearly not our interest.
What we’re trying to do is end this war in Ukraine, not start a larger one. And by the way, keep in mind what — again, keep in mind what a no fly zone. To make it clear, a no-fly zone is essentially a space that prohibits flying. This means that any Russian aircraft flies through the space you have declared, we must take it down.
Still, I found this move particularly interesting, because a US “back fill” would surely involve introducing American fighter aircraft plucked from USAF inventory into frontline NATO air forces that will face Russia in the future. Perhaps this will start with 4Th generation U.S. fighters such as retiring F-16’s and F-15’s, but will surely evolve, to The benefit of the US defense industry, to evolved 4thGeneration aircraft, such as the F-15EX series and F-16V series.The following is a list of th generation fighters like the F-35’s. That means in the future, NATO’s force structure will have force multiplier advantages over the Russian sphere of influence that will be impossible to counter symmetrically, especially if sanctions are in place.
But, there’s also a cautionary tale here. This “back fill” opportunity may feel good from a table of equipment point of view, certainly so from the promise it holds for a lucrative round of foreign military sales export permit; but, the US should be wary of the fact that Putin has a streak of responding to structural weaknesses by exploring weapons systems that have desperate threat shades of V-1 and V-2’s in them, such as hypersonic weapons, long range torpedoes, and low yield nuclear warheads.
Russia bans oil imports
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN: I spoke to the president and the cabinet — the leading members of the cabinet about this just yesterday from Europe, and we are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the – the import of Russian oil to our countries, while of course at the same time maintaining a steady global supply of oil. The actions we’ve taken to date have already had a devastating impact on the Russian economy. We are seeing the ruble falling in freefall. We predict a recession. We — we’ve already had a major impact, but we’re looking — again, as we speak – in coordination with allies and partners at this prospect of banning oil imports.
Secretary Blinken took some time to note that the US and its European partners are actively discussing banning Russian oil imports. The problem facing the West is that it’s just not prepared to shut off the tap suddenly. There is no alternative supply. Only the United States is able to replace Russia’s oil and gas supply to Europe. However, the US infrastructure has been badly damaged by past investments in oil infrastructure. It has been a bad political decision, which has severely limited our ability to press Russia. And it’s one that the US needs to make the strategic decision to remedy and never let ourselves be so vulnerable to again. Until our extraction, transportation and refining infrastructure is again able to meet the needs of our sphere’s oil supply sans the Russian contribution, this will remain difficult.
So, the bottom line is this one’s a muddle-struggle where President Biden has a lot of tough choices to make that will probably cost him political points with the climate change lobby to do what’s best for the national interest. I’m going to keep watching to see how gas prices change in Russia and the West on YouTube.
There is no end in sight
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN: You know, how this ends is – is an important question. It would be nice to see some signs that Putin is willing to negotiate diplomatically in order to end this war. Right now, we’re not seeing that. He was on the phone with President Putin, with President Macron of France a couple of days ago, and by all accounts, according to the French, he’s digging in and doubling down. This could be a long-term situation, so we need to be prepared. Russia’s sheer power, its manpower and the vast military might be able to continue to grind down the incredibly courageous and resilient Ukrainians.
But, here’s the thing: winning a battle is not winning a war. Taking a city is not taking the hearts and minds of the Ukrainians, and what we’ve learned over the past couple of weeks is that they will fight to the end for their country, and if it takes a week, if it takes a month, if it takes a year. Putin has no plans for the way this will end. He can’t impose his will and Russia’s will on 45 million Ukrainians. They’ve clearly demonstrated that. It may take quite some time for it to unfold. It should be over as soon as possible, with Ukraine retaining its independence and territorial integrity as well as its sovereignity. However, I believe we should be ready for it to continue for some time.
Bottom line: As I mentioned earlier in the article, there is no direct communication at this point. They aren’t leaking information if there are back-channel discussions. Even in the Washington Beltway’s sieve of secrecy, they are not leaking out. The next week is going to be a long one for Ukrainians. They will have to endure another difficult week as their ability to survive as power stations, communication towers and fuel supply lines are destroyed by the Russian army that has taken control of Ukraine.
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