As we previously reported, it is officially official that Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin has overtaken Democrat nominee Terry McAuliffe in the polls, with the most recent one – a Fox News poll – showing Youngkin with an eight-point advantage among likely voters. This marks a major turnaround in comparison to the Fox News poll that McAuliffe won by five points two weeks ago.
That poll revealed that Youngkin was 12 points ahead of McAuliffe in education votes. This was the biggest shift.
However, numbers released by the Washington Post this week show a more drastic shift in education voters towards Youngkin and away from McAuliffe.
The Washington Post’s new poll shows that EDUCATION ranks No. The economy is the number one issue facing Virginian voters during the Governor’s Race.
In September, education voters favored McAuliffe by 33 points, but now they tilt toward Youngkin by nine points.https://t.co/9JgBtcyTkR
— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) October 29, 2021
It is huge. There was a 42 percent shift towards Youngkin in the education vote. 42 percentThis is especially important because it’s the number one issue facing voters in Pennsylvania. Terry McAuliffe is sure to have more nightmares tonight.
Further, the report also notes that it’s McAuliffe and not Youngkin who is struggling to shore up his base of support down the homestretch:
7 in 10 likely voters say Youngkin’s ideas & policies are similar to Trump’s, including 63% of indies and 60% of Rs. McAuliffe is struggling to unify Biden’s coalition, with the support of 89% of Biden voters while Youngkin’s backed by 99% of Trump voters. https://t.co/9JgBtcyTkR
— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) October 29, 2021
This lines up with the embarrassing fundraising email McAuliffe’s campaign sent a week ago noting they “thought folks would be fired up to get out the vote, but at this point, it seems like enthusiasm is at an all-time low.” It could also have something to do in part with former Virginia Democrat Gov. McAuliffe is being criticized by Doug Wilder (who happens to be black), for pandering towards black voters. Wilder described it as completely insincere, and nakedly opportunistic.
Youngkin has a huge advantage with independent voters:
Youngkin has a 18 point advantage over independent voters. This is up from 8 points last month. Virginia is not a party-based state, however 33% registered as independents according to the Washington Post poll. 34% were Dems while 27% were Rs. https://t.co/9JgBtcyTkR
— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) October 29, 2021
This fact is consistent with CBS News’ recent CBS News Report that showed independent voters who had previously voted in support of Democrats, suggesting they wanted to send Joe Biden a message with Youngkin votes.
Keep in mind that this latest wave of bad news from McAuliffe comes as he made a deliberate “pivot” on education over the last couple of weeks, apparently sensing that what he had been doing – doubling down on the blunder he made in September when he admitted that “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” – wasn’t working.
Obviously, his new approach isn’t working, as his support continues to crater white Youngkin smartly capitalizes on it and seizes the momentum.
Guess what happens when a Democrat goes up against the wall during the final days? You guessed it – the race card gets played shamelessly, as we saw last night with the despicable “Southern Strategy” ad the sexual-predator-defenders at the Lincoln Project released as well as the obvious smear attempt from operatives likely affiliated with McAuliffe’s campaign showing up at a Youngkin campaign stop earlier today carrying tiki torches in an obvious attempt at invoking the horrors of Charlottesville. A black man was one of those holding the tiki torch. Bonchie, my colleague, had the perfect answer to this:
If these were real white supremacists, I’m going to guess they wouldn’t be palling around with a black guy. What do you know, though?
In addition to the 11th-hour playing of the race card has been the predictable national media interference, led by CNN, which frantically reported earlier this week that McAuliffe’s education comments had been “spun out of control” and taken out of context, which was such an absurd claim that the “reporter” didn’t even bother playing the actual videoMcAuliffe stated the contrary. Apparently, we’re just supposed to go along with a CNN reporter’s translation of events? I don’t think so.
It’s got to be enraging to Terry McAuliffe that he has so far been unable to successfully use former President Trump’s support for Youngkin to effectively smear him, try as often as he might. Terry McAuliffe is the only one who has suffered from this campaign. Terry McAuliffe
Meanwhile, Glenn Youngkin continues to mostly go it alone, not bringing in any GOP star power perhaps because he sees that what he’s been doing so far is working – selling himself and himself alone.
On the other hand, a desperate McAuliffe has had to resort to bringing in fellow election deniers like Stacey Abrams, dragging a blow-up “Trump chicken” doll to packed Youngkin rallies, and lobbing false anti-Semitism and racism allegations in hopes that they stick by scaring enough unsuspecting voters.
As of right now, they don’t appear to be sticking. My hope is that Virginia voters will send a strong message next week that they’re done with this type of gutter politics and emotional manipulation, and tell McAuliffe with their vote to kiss their grits.
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