Polling for the U.S. Senate seat held by Catherine Cortez Masto has been pretty sparse, but a new poll out late this week shows that not only is the seat in play, but it’s currently trending toward Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.
According to the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group poll, Laxalt is up almost two and a quarter points against incumbent Cortez Massto (46.7% to 44.3%). Nearly the exact same number of votes was also tallied for Republican candidate Joe Lombardo against Steve Sisolak (46.2 percent to 43.6)
We noted earlier that Cortez Massto had been running from the question about whether she would campaign with Joe Biden. Here’s what my colleague Brittany Sheehan wrote:
Cortez Masto might be reluctant to align with President Biden on the campaign trail due to his low approval rating of just 30%. Or, it could be the recent headlines about how the Senator’s husband had business dealings with the Biden campaign… and ended up in a cozy email on the Hunter Biden laptop from hell…
Along with all that, there’s the fact that Cortez Masto has been running an abysmally negative campaign that has drawn little but criticism. One of the most notable is an a SuccessionAdvertisement with a Nevada-themed theme that is more targeted at East Coast liberals and less towards Nevadans.
First of all, Nevada’s population (2.12 Million) makes it unlikely that Nevadans would be eligible for the reference. Succession’s entire audience (1.7 million people viewed the season-three finale). According to my calculations, an important portion of the 1.7 million viewers is made up of people working in media.
Second, it’s 60 seconds long, too long to be broadcast on TV, but perfect for journalists working online who are looking for a quick distraction during a summer afternoon.
Third, Cortez Masto’s campaign first shared the spot with NBC News. The accompanying write-up says it’s “set to be broadcast in both Spanish and English” but offers no further details about when or where it may be shown on television.
On that last point, it’s pretty clear what Cortez Masto wants: She wants liberal writers to cover the ad wants the headlines about the ad to drive the discourse on it, rather than have the people of Nevada actually see the ad. If your first move for an ad is to release it to news outlets rather than the people of your state, chances are you know it won’t land with them.
Glenn Kessler has even called her out on her attack against his record. She earned three Pinocchios.
Cortez Masto is struggling to connect with her voters, and the media isn’t giving her a whole lot of help. She’s campaigning very poorly right now as a result, and Laxalt is picking up more momentum.
Laxalt has risen nearly three points in polls that showed 2 percent more Democratic votes than Republican voters. In the states where Senate races are close, we’ve seen a common theme: It looks like the low 40s are the ceiling for Democrats and the floor for Republicans.
Laxalt, a solid candidate, deserves to win the Nevada Senate Race. The race to control the Senate is tight, not because it’s close, but because Nevadans deserve someone that will represent them and not just someone who can rubber stamp everything Chuck Schumer suggests.
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